Core Insights - Gold is currently battling the key level of $4150, approaching a three-week high [1] - The US dollar finds support amid potential government reopening and increasing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Gold closed above the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level, with attention on bullish momentum around $4150 [3] Market Dynamics - Following three consecutive days of gains, gold buyers took a breather, driven by optimism surrounding the US government reopening, which sparked a "buy everything" momentum in the market [5] - Ongoing risk flows continue to diminish the appeal of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, further impacted by expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months [5] - The latest ADP data indicated a loss of over 11,000 jobs per week by US companies before the end of October, raising hopes for further Fed easing, with the probability of a rate cut in December now estimated at 68%, up from 62% prior to the data release [5] Technical Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slightly retreated but remains above the midline, suggesting any potential decline in gold prices may be temporary [10] - Gold closed at $4129, breaking through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level since August 19, with buyers needing to sustain a breakthrough above $4150 to initiate a new rally towards the record high of $4382 [11] - Initial support is seen at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $4085, with psychological support at $4050 if that level is breached, while the critical line for gold buyers is at $3973, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the same rally [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in private sector employment, as indicated by ADP data, may lead to an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, impacting gold prices positively if the upcoming non-farm payroll data shows continued labor market weakness [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report is crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, with economists predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in May, and an expected slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [3]. - Any unexpected performance in the labor market could lead to significant market volatility, influencing investor confidence regarding interest rate cuts [3]. Gold Price Analysis - Technically, spot gold is expected to continue its upward trend, needing further confirmation, with the price struggling to break through the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,350 per ounce [3]. - The 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish slope well below the current gold price, while technical indicators lack strong directional strength [3]. Short-term Price Targets - The 4-hour chart suggests that gold prices may reach higher levels, targeting the next Fibonacci resistance at $3,373.50 per ounce [5]. - Following the release of the ADP data, gold prices surpassed the previous week's high of $3,357.88, indicating potential for further upward movement [6]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy focuses on buying on dips, with support levels identified at $3,333 and $3,327, while resistance levels are noted at $3,366 and $3,375 [6].