Core Viewpoint - Emerging industries have a strong driving effect on electricity consumption, with resilient overall electricity demand growth. Short-term, the intermittent nature of wind and solar power highlights the importance of coal power for peak regulation, indicating a rigid demand for coal. High-quality coal assets still hold investment value, and leading coal companies exhibit characteristics of high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high safety margins. The coal mining industry maintains a "recommended" rating, focusing on stable and elastic coal targets [1]. Group 1: First Industry - The first industry shows high growth but low proportion, with electricity consumption expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.46% to 149.4 billion kWh from 2019 to 2025, contributing 2% to overall electricity growth. The livestock sector is a key driver, with significant growth in machinery power consumption [1]. Group 2: Second Industry - The second industry remains the main electricity consumer, with consumption projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.19% to 6.64 trillion kWh from 2016 to 2025, maintaining a 64.01% share. The internal structure is optimizing, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing gradually replacing high-energy-consuming sectors as the core growth drivers, particularly in computer communication electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive manufacturing, all expected to exceed 10% CAGR from 2018 to 2025 [2]. Group 3: Third Industry - The third industry is experiencing significant growth, with electricity consumption projected to reach 1.99 trillion kWh by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 10.73% from 2016 to 2025, and contributing 30.89% to overall electricity growth. Key growth sectors include wholesale and retail, driven by the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, and information transmission, software, and IT services, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence [3]. Group 4: Urban and Rural Residential Electricity - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.81% to 1.59 trillion kWh from 2016 to 2025, with a 15.32% share. The growth is driven by the penetration of electrical appliances and increased demand due to extreme weather conditions, with a contribution rate peaking at 50.03% in 2022. Projections for 2026 indicate continued growth across all sectors, with overall electricity demand expected to grow by 5.1% [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the continued dominance of renewable energy in China's power sector, with a significant acceleration in the green and low-carbon transition [1] Group 1: Market Transactions and Growth - In 2024, the total market transaction volume reached 6.18 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, accounting for 62.7% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Renewable energy's market participation reached 1.01 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing 55% of total renewable generation [2] - The issuance of green certificates reached 4.734 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 28 times, with a total trading volume of 446 million certificates, quadrupling from the previous year [2] Group 2: Electricity Consumption Trends - In 2024, total electricity consumption was 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours, growing by 6.8%, with the secondary industry contributing nearly half of this growth [4] - The secondary industry's electricity consumption was 6.39 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 5.2%, making up 64.8% of total consumption [4] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a significant increase in electricity usage, with solar equipment manufacturing up 19.2% and new energy vehicle manufacturing up 34.3% [4][5] Group 3: Supply Side Developments - By the end of 2024, total installed power generation capacity reached 3.35 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with solar power capacity growing by 45.4% [7] - Non-fossil energy sources accounted for 87.3% of new installed capacity, with wind and solar power making up 82.6% of the total new capacity [7] - Total investment in power generation projects reached 1.2094 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with non-fossil energy investment accounting for 84.6% of total investment [7] Group 4: Reliability and Quality of Renewable Energy - The installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power for the first time [8] - The reliability of solar power was recorded with an equivalent availability factor of 99.84%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in renewable energy [8]