智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，新兴产业对于相关行业用电量具有较强拉动作用，电力需求 总量增长仍具韧性，短期来看风光发电间歇性决定了煤电的调峰作用不可忽视，电力用煤需求具备刚 性，优质煤炭资产仍具配置价值。头部煤炭企业资产质量高，账上现金流充沛，呈现"高盈利、高现金 流、高壁垒、高分红、高安全边际"五高特征。建议把握低位煤炭板块的价值属性，维持煤炭开采行 业"推荐"评级。动力煤标的方面，重点关注动力煤稳健型标的及弹性较大标的。 国海证券主要观点如下： 第一产业：高增速低占比，电气化驱动稳健增长 第三产业：增量贡献攀升，新兴产业为核心引擎 2016-2025年，第三产业用电量以CAGR为10.73%快速增长至1.99万亿千瓦时，2025年同比+8.2%，占比 19.23%，增量贡献度升至30.89%，已成为全社会用电增长的重要驱动。增长动力主要来自两个细分行 业：1)批发和零售业受新能源汽车快速渗透所产生的高增充换电需求驱动，2018-2025年用电量CAGR达 12%;2)信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业受人工智能快速发展下数据中心用电量高增长拉动，2025年增 速高达17%。 城乡居民生活用电：终端电 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the continued dominance of renewable energy in China's power sector, with a significant acceleration in the green and low-carbon transition [1] Group 1: Market Transactions and Growth - In 2024, the total market transaction volume reached 6.18 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, accounting for 62.7% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Renewable energy's market participation reached 1.01 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing 55% of total renewable generation [2] - The issuance of green certificates reached 4.734 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 28 times, with a total trading volume of 446 million certificates, quadrupling from the previous year [2] Group 2: Electricity Consumption Trends - In 2024, total electricity consumption was 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours, growing by 6.8%, with the secondary industry contributing nearly half of this growth [4] - The secondary industry's electricity consumption was 6.39 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 5.2%, making up 64.8% of total consumption [4] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a significant increase in electricity usage, with solar equipment manufacturing up 19.2% and new energy vehicle manufacturing up 34.3% [4][5] Group 3: Supply Side Developments - By the end of 2024, total installed power generation capacity reached 3.35 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with solar power capacity growing by 45.4% [7] - Non-fossil energy sources accounted for 87.3% of new installed capacity, with wind and solar power making up 82.6% of the total new capacity [7] - Total investment in power generation projects reached 1.2094 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with non-fossil energy investment accounting for 84.6% of total investment [7] Group 4: Reliability and Quality of Renewable Energy - The installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power for the first time [8] - The reliability of solar power was recorded with an equivalent availability factor of 99.84%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in renewable energy [8]