（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券指出，与市场不同，基于海外AI发展和国内电气化率提升，我们更看好电力需求的增长幅度 和持续时间，电力发展将迎来超级周期，我们认为持续性和幅度都会更超预期。我们认为虽然短期能源 结构会因新能源系统瓶颈呈现周期属性，但是最终新能源制造业属性和对资源低依赖，必然使得未来系 统实现平价，产业将会再次出现非线性增长。我们认为全球电力基建紧张的大背景下，传统电气设备 （电网电源）的重估市场仍然认识不足，且存在较多估值洼地，明年主网设备的紧缺和传统电源设备出 海将带来差异化投资机会。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the power and coal sectors, including Harbin Electric, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [7][9][30]. Core Insights - The electricity demand in November 2025 is expected to continue its high growth rate, with a projected increase of 6.6% year-on-year, reaching 8,364 billion kWh [1]. - The report highlights a significant rebound in exports, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, which is expected to support electricity demand growth [3]. - The heating season is anticipated to be longer this year due to the late timing of the Spring Festival, potentially leading to higher-than-expected heating demand [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing competition [5]. Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Forecast - The estimated national electricity generation for November 2025 is 7,898 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1][10]. - The breakdown of generation includes thermal power at 5,069 billion kWh (down 2.1%), hydropower at 1,138 billion kWh (up 38.3%), wind power at 955 billion kWh (up 16.0%), solar power at 336 billion kWh (up 12.8%), and nuclear power at 400 billion kWh (up 6.4%) [10][14]. Coal Consumption Trends - Thermal coal consumption has shown a decline, with coastal provinces averaging 1.84 million tons per day (down 2.5% year-on-year) and inland provinces averaging 3.35 million tons per day (down 5.6% year-on-year) [2][10]. - The report suggests that improved water conditions and seasonal wind energy output may lead to a reduction in thermal power generation [2]. Company Recommendations - Harbin Electric is recommended due to its leading position in traditional power equipment and expected benefits from ongoing nuclear power approvals and global electricity shortages [30]. - Zhongmei Energy is highlighted for its effective cost control and expected recovery in coal prices, maintaining a "Buy" rating [31]. - China Shenhua is noted for its strong cost management and improved profitability, with a target price increase to 51.3 yuan [35]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that electricity demand will outpace GDP growth for the year, supported by both domestic and export recovery [5]. - The potential for higher-than-expected coal demand during the heating season is emphasized, suggesting a bullish outlook for coal prices [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the electricity operators, highlighting low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly for China Power (2380.HK) and Huaneng International Power (902.HK) [5][6]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in growth compared to September [2][3]. - The cumulative electricity consumption from January to October 2025 reached 86,246 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2][3]. - The growth in electricity consumption was primarily driven by the tertiary industry and residential usage, contributing significantly to the overall increase [3][5]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption Data - In October 2025, total electricity consumption was 8,572 billion kWh, marking a 10.4% increase year-on-year and a 5.9 percentage point rise from September [2][4]. - The breakdown of electricity consumption by sector in October shows: - Primary industry: 120 billion kWh, up 13.2% - Secondary industry: 5,688 billion kWh, up 6.2% - Tertiary industry: 1,609 billion kWh, up 17.1% - Residential consumption: 1,155 billion kWh, up 23.9% [2][3]. Industrial Power Generation - The industrial power generation in October was 8,002 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, showing a 6.4 percentage point improvement from September [4]. - Notable changes in generation types include: - Thermal power: increased by 7.3% - Hydropower: increased by 28.2% - Nuclear power: increased by 4.2% - Wind power: decreased by 11.9% - Solar power: increased by 5.9% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of undervalued electricity operators with high dividend yields, particularly China Power (2380.HK) and Huaneng International Power (902.HK), as they are expected to outperform the industry growth [5][6].

Group 1 - The core issue facing the AI industry is not a surplus of computing power, but a lack of sufficient electricity to support all GPU operations [1] - Global data center electricity consumption reached 415 TWh in 2024, accounting for 1.5% of global electricity consumption, equivalent to the total annual electricity usage of the UK [1] - This electricity consumption is increasing at an annual rate of 12%, and it is expected to double to 945 TWh by 2030, pushing the global energy system towards a critical turning point [1] Group 2 - The Electric Grid ETF (561380) tracks the Hang Seng A-share electric grid equipment index, which selects listed companies in the electric grid equipment sector to reflect the overall performance of the electric grid equipment industry chain [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - In October, the national power generation increased by 7.9% year-on-year, driven by abnormal high temperatures in southern regions, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [2][18] - Hydropower continues to perform strongly with a 28.2% year-on-year increase in October, while thermal power shows significant recovery with a 7.3% increase [2][24] - The report highlights the improvement in the operational environment for thermal power, with a narrowing decline of 0.4% for the year-to-date [11][45] Summary by Sections Power Generation Data - In October, total power generation reached 800.2 billion kWh, with thermal power contributing 513.8 billion kWh, hydropower 135.1 billion kWh, nuclear power 38.7 billion kWh, wind power 73.3 billion kWh, and solar power 39.4 billion kWh [17][24] - For the first ten months of 2025, total power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year growth [17][18] Thermal Power Insights - Thermal power generation in October saw a significant turnaround with a 7.3% increase, alleviating previous pressures, and the year-to-date decline has narrowed to 0.4% [2][45] - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao port was 746.89 RMB/ton in October, down 105.22 RMB/ton year-on-year, contributing to the improved operational environment for thermal power [11][45] Hydropower Performance - Hydropower generation in October was 135.1 billion kWh, up 28.2% year-on-year, supported by improved rainfall and a low base from the previous year [11][26] - The average rainfall in October was 51.5 mm, significantly above the historical average, enhancing hydropower generation capacity [26] Renewable Energy Trends - Wind power generation decreased by 11.9% year-on-year in October, while solar power generation increased by 5.9%, although the growth rate has slowed [11][32] - The report notes that the cumulative installed capacity for wind and solar power has seen a decline in new installations compared to previous years [32][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [11][50] - For renewable energy, it suggests companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [50][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Custom Truck One Source reported $482 million in revenue for Q3 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, with adjusted gross profit of $156 million and adjusted EBITDA of $96 million, reflecting increases of 13% and 20% respectively compared to Q3 2024 [11][4][9] - Average OEC on rent was over $1.26 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with average utilization at just over 79%, up more than 600 basis points from Q3 2024 [6][11] - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $1.97 to $2.06 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $370 to $390 million [18][19] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ERS segment generated $169 million in revenue, up more than 12% from $151 million in Q3 2024, with rental revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year [12][4] - The TES segment reported $275 million in equipment sales, a 6% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 15%, down from the previous year [14][15] - APS business revenue was $38 million, up 3% year-over-year, with an adjusted gross margin over 26% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The utility contractor customers in the ERS segment are experiencing sustained activity levels, driven by increased electricity demand and projected T&D CapEx of approximately $600 billion from 2025 to 2029 [5][4] - The overall annual growth rate of spending in the T&D market is expected to be nearly 10%, with transmission spending projected to grow over 15% annually through 2029 [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest more than previously expected in its rental fleet, with net rental CapEx projected at approximately $250 million for the year [18][19] - Custom Truck One Source aims to reduce inventory by $125 million to $150 million compared to the end of the previous year, targeting a reduction to six months of inventory by the end of fiscal 2026 [18][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about sustained demand in the utility sector and the overall positive business outlook despite macroeconomic uncertainties [9][20] - The company noted that strong year-to-date results and robust order flow support expected growth across its consolidated business [9][20] Other Important Information - The company has seen a significant increase in signed orders, with a year-over-year growth of over 30% in the TES segment [7][39] - Management highlighted the importance of long-term relationships with strategic suppliers and a diversified customer base as key to success [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility for 2026 to sustain momentum - Management noted strong demand in the utility sector, particularly in transmission, and investments made in Q3 are expected to support growth into 2026 [22][23] Question: Clarification on inventory reduction timing - Management clarified that the $125 million to $150 million reduction in inventory is expected by the end of the current year, with a target of six months of inventory by the end of next fiscal year [27][29] Question: Update on utility T&D customers' project execution - Management confirmed that distribution and transmission projects are back on track, with good demand for new equipment [33][34] Question: Drivers of organic growth within TES - Management indicated strong demand from utility and forestry contractors, with a notable increase in signed orders [35][39] Question: Update on large transmission pipeline projects - Management reported good demand for transmission utilization and ongoing projects that are driving demand [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - CenterPoint Energy plans to invest a record $65 billion by 2035 to expand its power grid capacity, enhance resilience, and digitize operations in response to significant growth in electricity demand, particularly in Texas [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Plans - The $65 billion investment is part of a ten-year infrastructure plan focused on grid capacity expansion, resilience strengthening, and digitalization [1][5]. - CenterPoint forecasts a nearly 50% increase in peak load demand for its Houston utility by 2031, potentially doubling to around 42 GW in the next decade [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in electricity demand is driven by major tech companies like Tesla, Microsoft, Google, and Meta establishing and expanding AI data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and large-scale industrial manufacturing [1][4]. - The electricity demand from AI data centers is expected to significantly increase, with projections indicating a doubling of peak electricity demand in the next five years [1][4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity demand will more than double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 TWh, with AI applications being the primary driver of this growth [4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 165% increase in global electricity demand by 2030 due to the rapid rise of AI data centers, necessitating changes in infrastructure and energy strategies [4]. Group 4: Company Performance - CenterPoint Energy's stock has surged nearly 30% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, driven by unprecedented valuation expansion in the utility sector due to AI data center demand [2]. - The company has raised its annual earnings forecast and aims for a long-term growth target of 7% to 9% before 2028, maintaining this growth rate until 2035 [1].

Group 1 - Constellation Energy's stock price experienced a slight decline of 3.02%, but reached a new high since August 2025 during intraday trading, indicating market activity and investor optimism about the company's prospects [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce recently rated Constellation Energy and several other U.S. independent power producers as "outperform," boosting market confidence and attracting investor attention [1] - Analyst Andrew Weisel highlighted Constellation Energy's strong performance across various industry metrics, particularly its competitive power plant portfolio amid high electricity demand, and noted its innovative strategies in data center contracts and organic growth [1] Group 2 - NRG Energy was rated as a "value pick" despite lacking the highest quality assets, while Vistra Energy was described as a "straightforward and high-quality" company with a compelling growth story and attractive asset portfolio [2] - The Canadian bank expressed confidence in the future of the entire electricity sector, emphasizing the increasing competition among companies as electricity demand grows, particularly in data centers and renewable energy [2] - Investors are encouraged to closely monitor the developments of companies like Constellation Energy, as they are expected to deliver substantial returns in a rapidly changing electricity market driven by strong demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in electricity consumption in China, indicating robust economic growth and the emergence of new industries, particularly in high-tech and renewable sectors [2][4][5]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Data - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and the first time it surpassed the trillion-kilowatt-hour mark in a month [2]. - The average temperature in July was the highest since 1961, contributing to record electricity loads and a 18.0% increase in residential electricity consumption, which totaled 2,039 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. - From January to July, the second industry's electricity consumption was 37,400 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and July alone saw a 4.7% increase [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Growth - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 4.6% increase in electricity consumption from January to July, outpacing the average growth of the manufacturing sector by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - The new energy vehicle manufacturing sector experienced a remarkable 25.7% increase in electricity consumption [3]. - The third industry's electricity consumption reached 11,300 billion kilowatt-hours from January to July, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase, and July's consumption grew by 10.7% [4]. Group 3: Future Projections - The China Electricity Council anticipates that electricity consumption growth in the second half of the year will exceed that of the first half, projecting a 5% to 6% increase in total electricity consumption by 2025 [4][5]. - By 2030, total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 13,000 billion kilowatt-hours, driven by the growth of new industries such as computing infrastructure and hydrogen production [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the economic focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development will remain unchanged through 2025, leading to sustained growth in electricity demand [1] - The record high temperatures since June have resulted in continuous breakthroughs in peak electricity load, indicating strong resilience in electricity demand growth [1] - The expectation for electricity demand growth to outpace GDP growth in 2025 is supported by new productive forces, secondary industry exports, and residential consumption [1] Group 2 - The growth in electricity demand is expected to drive investment in power equipment and power generation industries [1] - The investment in power equipment is anticipated to resonate with the demand for primary network infrastructure and base-load supportive power generation [1]