Group 1: Overseas Quantitative Dynamics - The impact of tariff events has led to significant drawdowns for quantitative hedge funds, with Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund experiencing an approximately 8% decline in early April despite a 22.7% increase in 2024 [1][2] - Man Group's trend-following strategy also faced over a 10% drawdown, prompting a return to in-office work for some researchers to enhance strategy intervention [1] - Systematica Investments, founded by Leda Braga, saw a 20% drawdown in early April, highlighting the vulnerability of trend-following strategies during such events [1] Group 2: Adoption of AI in Quantitative Strategies - AQR has begun to embrace AI in investment decisions, acknowledging its potential for higher returns despite challenges in explanation during drawdowns [3] - In contrast, domestic private quantitative firms in China are utilizing AI more extensively, with teams like Baiont Quant employing fully self-developed AI algorithms for minute-to-hour level return predictions [3] Group 3: Market Uncertainty and Quantitative Strategies - BlackRock emphasizes the importance of adjusting models to cope with increasing global uncertainty, identifying three main uncertainties in tariff policies: target, scale, and timeline [6] - The evolution of BlackRock's quantitative investment system has led to a more granular approach to risk exposure, now incorporating over a thousand risk factors [7] - BlackRock's strategy focuses on maintaining neutrality in risk exposure while seeking short-term reversal opportunities in a high uncertainty environment [8] Group 4: Macro Hedge Fund Perspectives - Bridgewater highlights the impact of "modern mercantilism" on investment portfolios, noting the challenges posed by chaotic implementation processes and the unique risks facing U.S. assets [10] - Despite recent market volatility, Bridgewater believes that asset prices have not undergone substantial adjustments, indicating potential future opportunities [10] - The interaction between AI development and modern mercantilism is seen as a new dynamic, with AI potentially offsetting some negative impacts on productivity [11] Group 5: AQR's Investment Focus - AQR suggests that high volatility factors, while challenging to maintain, can yield significant long-term Sharpe ratios, advocating for the acceptance of these factors [12][16] - The firm recommends focusing on small-cap stocks, particularly in emerging markets, due to their lower valuations and potential for higher returns compared to U.S. large-cap stocks [19] Group 6: Performance Tracking of Quantitative Products - Factor rotation products from BlackRock and Invesco have outperformed their respective indices over the past five years, with BlackRock's adaptive factor selection demonstrating resilience [21][24] - The performance of machine learning-based ETFs has varied, with QRFT showing strong results in certain months while AIEQ continues to experience significant drawdowns [39] - Bridgewater's All Weather ETF faced notable drawdowns due to tariff events but has since recovered, indicating resilience in its strategy [40]

2025 年 06 月 17 日 量化如何应对宏观不确定性冲击？ ——海外量化季度观察 2025Q2 AQR 开始"拥抱 AI"：近期 AQR 创始人 Cliff Asness 在访谈中承认其已经向 AI"投降"， 开始在投资决策中使用更多的 AI 算法； 德州教师退休基金量化团队集体加入独立资管机构。 ⚫ 海外量化观点： 量化如何应对宏观不确定性冲击：贝莱德认为当前高不确定性环境下，其量化体系主要通 过更细分的风险因子识别并对多数风险保持中性，以及在市场密集的交易中寻找短期反转 机会来战胜市场； 桥水："现代重商主义"的影响：桥水认为资产价格实际上还没有发生实质性调整，后续仍 将有持续的变化，美元资产仍然存在较大的不确定性，他们关注潜在的资本流动来辅助投 资判断，而黄金目前仍然具备很强的配置价值。 AQR：关注高波动因子、新兴市场小盘投资机会：AQR 使用方差比率来衡量因子的波动 水平，数据显示财务类因子具备明显更高的长期收益波动，但从长期来看这些因子的夏普 率也更高，AQR 建议量化管理人接受这些高波动性因子、在短期回撤时也要勇于坚守，并 通过一定的分散化降低短期波动；此外，面对当下复杂的宏观环境，AQR ...