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中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI降至49.9 逊预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 03:45
库存方面,原材料库存和产成品库存均转入收缩态势,读数均为近三年里较低指数,原材料库存水平为 七个月来的首次下降。价格方面,原材料价格和出厂价格依旧维持"原材料涨价,产成品降价"的分化格 局,专家指出,金属价格上涨是导致成本增加的主要原因,但原材料价格涨幅与出厂价格跌幅均有所收 窄,企业盈利空间持续承压。受新订单增长放缓影响,从业人员指数再入收缩区间。 整体来看,11月RatingDog中国制造业PMI表现由扩张转为收缩。各分项中,新出口订单的回暖并没有 带动制造业延续扩张。展望未来,但考虑到冲刺全年5%增长目标的需要,年末供需侧或存在阶段性发 力可能,预计12月PMI将呈现弱扩张态势。 中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI降至49.9(预期50.5,前值50.6),制造业呈现弱收缩态势。 从分项指标来看,11月生产与需求两端的扩张均呈现放缓趋势,且趋近停滞。需求端方面,尽管新出口 订单量有所回升,但仍未能改变制造业的低迷状态,新订单扩张态势几乎停滞。生产端方面,在新订单 增长整体放缓的影响下,制造商减少了用工规模和采购量,并在库存管理上变得更加谨慎。生产相关分 项指数环比均有所下降,采购量跌入收缩区间。 ...
5月进出口点评:出口并未失速,且后续新出口订单仍值得期待
Orient Securities· 2025-06-12 02:37
Export Performance - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Traditional consumer goods exports showed stabilization at low levels, with footwear, toys, luggage, and clothing down by -7.9%, -4.5%, -12.1%, and -0.5% respectively[5] - Mechanical and electrical products exports were strong, with an overall year-on-year growth of 8.1% in May 2025[5] Import Trends - Imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month[1] - Agricultural product imports rose significantly by 4%, driven by increased soybean imports from South America, while crude oil and natural gas imports fell by -19.4% and -17.1% respectively[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of -34.5%, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, and other regions showed positive growth rates of 12%, 14.8%, and 6.2% respectively[5] - The reliance on Chinese imports for essential goods in the US remains high, with 46.8% classified as "just-in-time" goods[5] Future Outlook - New export orders are expected to reflect in June, as there is typically a one-month lag in the impact of new orders on export figures[5] - The potential impact of the new US customs system on indirect trade with China remains a point of interest, as non-US export growth remains robust[5]