家电行业周报 202 51 22 7 2025 年 12 月 27 日 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003 ） zhaozhongping ＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001 ）分析师：蔡润泽（执业 S1130525090001 ） wang_g ＠gjzq.com.cn cairunze ＠gjzq.com.cn 错期影响下空调 1 月排产反弹，冰冷新兴地区贡献增长 错期影响下空调 1 月排产反弹，冰冷新兴地区贡献增长 空调排产：错期影响下 1 月数据亮眼，但终端需求预计仍然偏弱。2026 年 1 月家用空调内销排产 786 万台，同比+8.9%； 出口排产 1065 万台，同比+1.2%。这一反弹主要原因为 2026 年春节落于 2 月，企业将部分 2 月产能前移至 1 月，以 应对节前交付及促销需求，属于排产节奏的短期调整，但终端需求预计仍然偏弱。出口端虽暂时转正，但欧美市场旺 季已过且库存高企，新订单增速受限，叠加海外工厂产能替代效应增强，中国成品出口的长期增长仍面临结构性压力。 冰箱排产 ...

库存方面，原材料库存和产成品库存均转入收缩态势，读数均为近三年里较低指数，原材料库存水平为 七个月来的首次下降。价格方面，原材料价格和出厂价格依旧维持"原材料涨价，产成品降价"的分化格 局，专家指出，金属价格上涨是导致成本增加的主要原因，但原材料价格涨幅与出厂价格跌幅均有所收 窄，企业盈利空间持续承压。受新订单增长放缓影响，从业人员指数再入收缩区间。 整体来看，11月RatingDog中国制造业PMI表现由扩张转为收缩。各分项中，新出口订单的回暖并没有 带动制造业延续扩张。展望未来，但考虑到冲刺全年5%增长目标的需要，年末供需侧或存在阶段性发 力可能，预计12月PMI将呈现弱扩张态势。 中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI降至49.9(预期50.5，前值50.6)，制造业呈现弱收缩态势。 从分项指标来看，11月生产与需求两端的扩张均呈现放缓趋势，且趋近停滞。需求端方面，尽管新出口 订单量有所回升，但仍未能改变制造业的低迷状态，新订单扩张态势几乎停滞。生产端方面，在新订单 增长整体放缓的影响下，制造商减少了用工规模和采购量，并在库存管理上变得更加谨慎。生产相关分 项指数环比均有所下降，采购量跌入收缩区间。 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, attributed to seasonal effects following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [4] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in construction activity [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that while the manufacturing PMI shows slight recovery, it remains below the critical line, indicating ongoing downward pressure on the economy [5] - There is an expectation for increased investment and consumption demand as year-end approaches, supported by policy measures and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - The overall economic stability is contingent on the effective implementation of policies to boost market confidence and demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to external factors affecting its performance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.83 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 321 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of around 15% [1][2]. - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is approximately 1.81 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 242 million yuan year-on-year, equating to a decline of around 12% [1][2]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.15 billion yuan, and the net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 2.05 billion yuan [2]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.66 yuan [2]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Change - The decline in net profit is attributed to international trade barriers, raw material prices, and market conditions, which have led to a decrease in the company's gross profit margin [2]. - The company plans to optimize its overseas production capacity and increase the promotion of high-value-added products to mitigate the impact of these factors on its performance [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to international trade barriers, raw material prices, and market conditions [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.83 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 321 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of around 15% [1] - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is approximately 1.81 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 242 million yuan year-on-year, equating to a decline of around 12% [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The decline in net profit is attributed to factors such as international trade barriers, raw material prices, and market environment, which have also led to a decrease in gross profit margin compared to the previous year [1] Future Strategies - The company plans to optimize its overseas production capacity and increase the promotion of high value-added products to mitigate the impact of the aforementioned factors on its performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in agricultural product prices, particularly focusing on the decline in pig and chicken prices, the fluctuation of grain prices, and the increase in natural rubber prices, indicating a complex market environment influenced by supply and demand dynamics [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Livestock Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.61 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 1.42%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 36.23 yuan/kg, down 1.74% [2]. - The average weight of market pigs remained stable at 129.71 kg, with a national frozen product inventory rate of 14.01%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The price of white feather broiler chickens dropped to 7.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.67%, and chick prices fell to 2.85 yuan/bird, down 2.06% [3]. Group 2: Grain Prices - As of May 16, the average price of corn was 2374.90 yuan/ton, up 0.48%, while wheat prices increased to 2468.89 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.33%. Conversely, soybean meal prices decreased to 3115.71 yuan/ton, down 5.93% [4]. - The increase in corn prices is attributed to high demand in North China and adjustments by enterprises based on market conditions, while soybean meal prices are affected by ample supply from South America and rising inventories [4]. Group 3: Natural Rubber Prices - The domestic natural rubber futures price reached 15025 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.18% [5]. - The demand for natural rubber is supported by the U.S. tariff exemption period for Southeast Asia, leading to increased orders from overseas tire manufacturers [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.35% [1] - The industry is gradually stabilizing, and the company experienced good sales growth in Q1, particularly in its raw materials business, which was the main driver of revenue growth [1][2] - The company maintained good cost control, with a reduction in total expenses compared to the previous year, positively impacting net profit [3] - The company is advancing its projects in Liaoning, which are expected to optimize product layout and create new growth points for sustainable development [3] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.47 billion yuan, 1.78 billion yuan, and 2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [3] - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 12.86 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.23% compared to 2024 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.44 [5] Sales and Pricing - In Q1, the company achieved sales volumes of 28,700 tons for raw materials and 15,400 tons for formulations, representing increases of 14.8% and 2.8% year-on-year respectively [2] - The average prices for raw materials and formulations in Q1 were 63,000 yuan and 56,600 yuan, showing declines of 8.8% and 1.6% year-on-year [2] Cost Control and Project Development - The company reduced its sales expenses by approximately 1.65 million yuan year-on-year, while management and R&D expenses increased [3] - The first phase of the Liaoning project has been completed and is in the process of trial production, with several products already meeting quality standards [3]