新房年末冲量
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新房年末冲量
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-20 14:52
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The real - estate market shows different trends in new and second - hand housing. New housing has a year - end sales push, while second - hand housing shows stable and slightly increasing trends. The repair elasticity varies in different time periods and city tiers [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly Data - **New Housing**: In the week of December 12 - 18, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities reached 3 million and 700 thousand square meters, about 59% of the annual high. After a small decline last week, it rebounded strongly with a 16% week - on - week increase, hitting a new weekly high since October [1]. - **Second - hand Housing**: In the same week, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2 million and 190 thousand square meters, with a 2% week - on - week increase. Since November, it has shown high - level consolidation, with weekly transactions fluctuating between 2 million and 130 thousand and 2 million and 210 thousand square meters, and the absolute volume remains at 74% of the annual high [1]. - **Year - on - year Comparison**: The year - on - year decline of new housing in 38 cities narrowed by 2 percentage points to 31%, with 12 consecutive weeks of negative growth. The year - on - year decline of second - hand housing in 15 cities converged by 11 percentage points to 23%, with 10 consecutive weeks of negative growth, indicating a faster marginal repair speed of second - hand housing [2]. 3.2 Monthly Data - **November**: According to statistics bureau data, the month - on - month repair of real - estate sales in November was better than that of the same period from 2021 - 2023, but the "quantity for price" feature was significant. Year - on - year, affected by the high base after "924" last year, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% respectively. The decline in sales area narrowed by 1.5 pct compared with October, while the decline in sales volume expanded by 0.8 pct. Month - on - month, the sales area increased by 9.3%, stronger than the average of the same period from 2021 - 2023 (+8.0%) and last year (+7.1%), but the sales volume only increased by 2.3% month - on - month [3]. - **December (1 - 18)**: The repair elasticity of new housing was better than that of second - hand housing. The year - on - year decline of new housing in 38 cities was - 29%, better than - 35% in November and basically the same as - 27% in October. The second - hand housing market's prosperity declined, with a year - on - year decline of - 30% in 15 cities, a significant expansion compared with - 20% in November [3]. 3.3 First - tier Cities - **New Housing**: The week - on - week transaction volume was flat, ending last week's decline, with the absolute scale at 50% of the annual high. Shenzhen and Guangzhou led the increase with 77% and 27% week - on - week growth respectively, while Beijing and Shanghai faced a decline, with Beijing down 33% and Shanghai down 8% [4]. - **Second - hand Housing**: The week - on - week transaction volume of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen was flat, entering a high - level consolidation period. The activity of the three cities was highly consistent, with transaction volumes stable between 74% - 76% of the annual high. Shenzhen and Beijing increased by 5% and 1% respectively, while Shanghai decreased by 3%, showing stronger resilience than new housing [4]. - **Year - on - year Comparison**: Affected by the high base of the same period last year, the year - on - year decline of new housing in first - tier cities was 44%, with the decline expanding by 7 percentage points and 10 consecutive weeks of negative growth. Shanghai performed relatively well with a decline of 11%. The year - on - year decline of second - hand housing narrowed to 27%, and Shanghai also performed relatively better [5]. 3.4 Second - and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier Cities**: The week - on - week transaction volume of new housing increased by 22%, with the absolute volume restored to 61% of the annual high. Hangzhou and Qingdao increased significantly. The year - on - year decline of new housing narrowed by 1 percentage point to 25%. The second - hand housing market was relatively stable, with the week - on - week volume basically flat for two consecutive weeks, and the year - on - year decline narrowed significantly by 14 percentage points to 28% [6]. - **Third - tier Cities**: The transaction volume of both new and second - hand housing increased from a decline. The new housing transaction volume increased by 23%, reaching 58% of the annual high. The year - on - year decline of new housing narrowed significantly. The second - hand housing (with 4 samples) was particularly outstanding, with a 14% week - on - week increase and the absolute volume restored to 96% of the annual high [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **70 Cities**: In November, the price of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities improved marginally, with a 0.4% month - on - month decline and the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage point. The price of second - hand housing declined by 0.7% month - on - month, with the same decline as last month. First - tier second - hand housing prices led the decline, with a 1.1% month - on - month decline. In the year - on - year dimension, the decline of second - hand housing prices in each tier was concentrated between 5.6% - 5.8% [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shanghai showed strong resilience in both month - on - and year - on - year dimensions. In contrast, the decline of Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen expanded [7].