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方正证券:创新药出海已成趋势 新技术开发引领未来
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 02:29
Group 1: Core Insights - The current wave of innovative drugs is driven by China's participation in new technologies, with advancements in ADC, bispecific antibodies, second-generation IO, and GLP-1 [1] - The global pharmaceutical transaction volume has steadily increased, with total transaction amounts rising from $56.9 billion to $187.4 billion over the past decade, while China's transaction amounts surged from $3.1 billion to $57.1 billion [1] - By 2024, China's transaction volume is expected to account for approximately 30% of global pharmaceutical transactions [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - In oncology, the combination of IO and ADC therapies remains strong, with significant transactions in the PD-1 bispecific antibody space; the sales of Pembrolizumab are projected to reach $29.482 billion in 2024 [2] - The autoimmune disease sector is witnessing a shift as older drugs face patent expirations, with new opportunities emerging in Th2 and Th17 pathways; Dupilumab is expected to lead with $14.1 billion in sales in 2024 [2] - The cardiovascular and metabolic disease market continues to grow, with GLP-1 receptor agonists projected to exceed $50 billion in global sales in 2024 [3] Group 3: Future Technologies - New technologies such as next-generation ADCs, TCE therapies, universal/in vivo CART technologies, gene therapy, and small nucleic acid technologies are anticipated to lead future disease treatments [4]