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食品饮料行业2025年中期投资策略:白酒从去库存到去产能,大众品关注新品新渠道
Minsheng Securities· 2025-06-18 05:03
Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]