情绪溢价降低，谨防回调风险 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年7月13日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | 综 述 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 | 国产量 | 77 | 37 . | 77 . | 01 | -0 . | 36 | 78 . ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]

来源：雪球 去年12月底 ， 特斯拉434.6那天晚上 ， 我专门写文章表达了华晨中国的低估与特斯拉的高估 ， 说他们的估值未来一定是双向奔赴 ， 时间过去了2个多月 ， 特斯拉从434.6 ， 现在只有263.45 ， 263.45/434.6=0.6061895996 ， 已经跌去了40% ， 当前特斯拉的PE依然高达120 ， 而当时的华晨 中国3.94 ， 现在是3.95 ， 虽然目前为止还没有上涨 ， 但是特斯拉的风险让他们的估值差缩小了 。 马斯克说特斯拉未来5年业绩可以上涨1000% ， 现在的股票如果不上涨 ， 就算特斯拉完成了业绩 上涨1000% ， 估值也是12PE ， 5年后特斯拉还能不能高成长 ？ 如果成长进入了放缓期 ， 那么 市场给它多少PE是合理 ， 不就是15～20PE ， 就算给泡沫估值30PE ， 30/12=2.5 ， 150%的上涨 ， 5年 ， 好像听起来还不错 ， 前提是他吹的未来5年业绩上涨1000%要能实现 ， 我真的不是怀 疑马斯克 ， 我是觉得投资者必须理性 ， 客观的面对投资 ， 而非理想化的进行投资 。 那么5年 ， 华晨中国光分红都已经有现在市值的15 ...