Variety Views - On June 5th, the three major A-share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3384.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.58% to 10203.50 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.17% to 2048.62 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 3877.56, a increase of 8.81 [1] - On June 5th, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1343.0 yuan, a increase of 7.4 [1] - On June 5th, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 759.1 yuan, a increase of 11.8 [2] Influencing Factors of Futures Prices - For coke, the off-season expectation drags down the demand. The daily output of molten iron continues the seasonal decline trend, and the support of the coke's in-furnace rigid demand weakens synchronously. Steel mills maintain low inventory operation of raw materials and still have a strong sentiment of suppressing prices from upstream. There is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts for coke spot this month [3] - For coking coal, events such as the export resource tax of Mongolian coal and the safety production month disrupt the coal supply. However, the policy - based production reduction has not yet come, the tightening range of raw coal production is not significant, and the coal mine inventory is still at a historical high. The downstream demand enters the traditional off - season, the operating load of steel and coking enterprises and the enthusiasm for raw material stockpiling have decreased, the atmosphere of coking coal auctions at the pithead is cold, and the transaction price has not been boosted [3] - For Zheng sugar, the US sugar oscillated and fell on Tuesday, affected by favorable crop prospects, especially in India and Thailand. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated and fell slightly on Thursday. The weather forecast shows that the monsoon rainfall in India may resume next week. Affected by this, the bears pressured the Zheng sugar 2509 contract to oscillate and decline at night. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 510,000 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons year - on - year; the monthly industrial inventory was 1.8197 million tons, a decrease of 253,500 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan Province, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.5558 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 64.32% (the sales - to - production ratio in the same period last year was 57.65%); the industrial inventory was 862,900 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons year - on - year. In May, the sugar sales were 238,900 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons year - on - year [3] - For rubber, due to the large increase in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and took a rest on Thursday under the influence of the technical side. The Thai meteorological agency said that from June 7th to 10th, heavy rain may cause flash floods. Supported by the deterioration of the weather conditions in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose at night. According to data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in May 2025, the total sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April this year and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [4] - For soybean meal, in the international market, on June 5th, the CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed higher. The export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that in the week ended May 29th, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 194,300 tons, an increase of 33% from the previous week and a decrease of 30% from the average of the previous four weeks, which was at the lower end of the market's estimated range. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in June would be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The soybean export volume in Brazil in May was 14.2 million tons. The agency maintained the outlook that Brazil would export 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025. In the domestic market, on June 5th, the soybean meal futures oscillated and closed higher. The main M2509 contract closed at 2,958 yuan/ton, with a increase of 0.65%. According to statistics, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 306,000 tons last weekend, an increase of 98,000 tons week - on - week. The oil refinery's operating rate has risen to over 60%, and the soybean meal inventory will continue to rise, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [5] - For live pigs, on June 5th, the live pig futures price oscillated. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.04%. Currently, the overall consumer demand of residents is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumptions, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is gradually recovering, the price - holding sentiment of large - scale pig enterprises is weak, the daily slaughter pressure has increased slightly compared with the previous period, and there are operations of reducing weight and increasing volume for slaughter. Retailers and some secondary fattening farmers have followed the trend of selling off. The supply of standard pigs and medium - large pigs has accelerated, and the supply of suitable - weight pig sources is relatively sufficient. The market is in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the live pig slaughter rhythm [5] - For palm oil, on June 5th, palm oil continued to maintain a small - range oscillating trend. By the close, the main contract P2509 K - line closed as a negative line with a lower shadow. The highest price on that day was 8,160, the lowest price was 8,064, and the closing price was 8,126, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous trading day. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1st to 31st increased by 3.07%, among which the production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 4.05%, Sabah increased by 2.1%, Sarawak increased by 1.27%, and the eastern part of Malaysia increased by 1.9% [6] - For Shanghai copper, driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation leading to the decline of the US dollar index, the concentrated release of the replenishment demand in the new - energy industry chain, and the fermentation of the news of production restrictions in smelters in Yunnan, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of narrow - range oscillation followed by a sharp rise. However, the overall driving force is limited, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant [6] - For cotton, the main contract of Zheng cotton closed at 13,390 yuan/ton on Thursday night. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6th, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quote was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 38 lots compared with the previous trading day [6] - For iron ore, on June 5th, the main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated and closed lower, with a decrease of 0.14%, and the closing price was 701 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both increased. Affected by the entry of terminal demand into the off - season and the decline of blast - furnace profits, the molten - iron output has decreased for three consecutive periods, and the demand may further decline. It presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] - For asphalt, on June 5th, the main 2507 contract of asphalt oscillated and closed lower, with a decrease of 0.4%, and the closing price was 3,497 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June has increased year - on - year, and the rainy weather in the south suppresses the demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and the asphalt shows an oscillating trend [7] - For logs, on June 5th, the 2507 contract opened at 758, the lowest was 746, the highest was 759.5, and it closed at 746.5, with a daily increase of 2,057 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. There is certain support at the spot end. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. The spot market price of logs on June 5th: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has increased slightly, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase, and the price - holding intention of traders [7][8] - For steel, on June 5th, rb2510 closed at 2,959 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,077 yuan/ton. The production of the five major steel products has decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the terminal demand for rebar has dropped significantly under the background of the switch between the peak and off - seasons and is weaker than the same period in previous years. The inventory of rebar in steel mills has accumulated. Recently, the macro - incremental information has been gradually realized in the market, and the trading logic has switched back to fundamental - driven. In the short term, steel is in a repair market under low valuation [10] - For alumina, on June 5th, ao2509 closed at 2,943 yuan/ton. The sentiment of the incident in the Guinea mining area has subsided, and the current impact magnitude is not enough to reverse the annual surplus of ore. The spot transaction of alumina is maintained at around 3,300 yuan. After the industry profit is repaired, the supply elasticity is large, and production has resumed. The domestic operating capacity of alumina has increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons month - on - month. The long - term surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged [10] - For Shanghai aluminum, on June 5th, al2507 closed at 20,010 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market sentiment may be affected by the tariff shock and suppress the aluminum price. At the same time, the unexpected reduction of domestic aluminum ingot inventory gives support to the aluminum price and the spot premium. Currently, some industries have shown an expectation of weakening in the off - season, but the overall decline is better than expected, and the demand resilience still exists. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will maintain an oscillating operation, and the lower support is relatively stable [10]