（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券指出，与市场不同，基于海外AI发展和国内电气化率提升，我们更看好电力需求的增长幅度 和持续时间，电力发展将迎来超级周期，我们认为持续性和幅度都会更超预期。我们认为虽然短期能源 结构会因新能源系统瓶颈呈现周期属性，但是最终新能源制造业属性和对资源低依赖，必然使得未来系 统实现平价，产业将会再次出现非线性增长。我们认为全球电力基建紧张的大背景下，传统电气设备 （电网电源）的重估市场仍然认识不足，且存在较多估值洼地，明年主网设备的紧缺和传统电源设备出 海将带来差异化投资机会。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the renewable energy manufacturing sector, with a focus on specific segments such as offshore wind, global energy storage, and power equipment [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply growth in the renewable energy sector has significantly slowed, with fixed asset growth expected to be in single digits for the next year. However, certain sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in return on equity (ROE) as demand increases and operating rates improve [1][2]. - The report highlights that leading companies in lithium batteries, wind energy, energy storage, and power equipment have shown substantial year-on-year growth in contract liabilities, indicating a marginal recovery in demand at the bottom of the industry cycle [1][2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the differences in supply and demand growth rates across various segments and the marginal changes in industry dynamics, recommending a focus on segments with a higher probability of profit improvement [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply growth rate for renewable energy has noticeably slowed, with projections for fixed asset growth in lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind energy, energy storage, and ultra-high voltage equipment at 8%, 8%, 5%, -5%, and -6% respectively for the next year [2]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure and investment sentiment indicators have significantly declined due to a phase of supply-demand imbalance, leading to a substantial contraction in industry profitability [2]. Demand Side Analysis - The report presents strong year-on-year growth in contract liabilities for leading sectors: lithium battery leaders (80%), onshore wind (62%), offshore wind (35%), energy storage (over 60%), and power equipment (40% for exports, over 70% domestically excluding ultra-high voltage) [2][18]. - It highlights that the decline in contract liabilities for photovoltaics and lithium batteries (excluding CATL) is primarily due to falling prices in the supply chain, which has reduced the unit value of products [2]. Profitability Analysis - The energy storage sector has benefited from rapid revenue growth and stable gross margins, achieving a profit increase of 70%-100%. In contrast, the photovoltaic sector has faced significant profit declines due to large impairment provisions and competitive pressures [3][17]. - The profitability of wind energy and power equipment remains relatively stable, with net profit growth rates in Q1 ranging from 10% to 30% [3][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on segments with potential for marginal improvement in ROE, particularly offshore wind, global energy storage, power equipment (both ultra-high voltage and export), leading lithium battery companies, and onshore wind [3][11].