证券研究报告·行业深度 供需形势尚未扭转，但海风，电力设备 出海，户储多项前瞻指标领先行业 ——电新 2024 年报&2025 一季报总结 核心观点 近两个季度部分景气度处于底部的行业扩产意愿明显降低，预计 未来一年固定资产增速仅个位数，部分行业随着需求增长，开工 率提升有望带来 ROE 修复。而从合同负债来看，锂电龙头、风 电、户储、电力设备同比实现较大增长，核心是行业景气周期底 部需求边际修复。对新能源制造业来说，ROE 边际变化是股价核 心矛盾，因此需要把握各板块供需增速差以及行业格局边际变 化，建议关注海风、全球户储、电力设备（特高压、出海两个方 向）、锂电龙头、陆风等盈利走强概率较大的方向。 摘要 供给端观察：新能源供给增速明显放缓，部分行业未来 1 年供给增速已 回到个位数，核心原因在于供需阶段性失衡的情况下，产业链盈利已大 幅收缩，资本开支、在建工程等表征投资意愿的指标绝对值已大幅下滑， 固定资产增速明显放缓。展望未来一年，我们预计锂电/光伏/风电/户 储/特高压固定资产增速分别在 8%/8%/5%/-5%/-6%，大储、电力设备（特 高压以外）方向固定资产增速相对较高。 需求端观察：从各板块合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong correlation between social financing (社融), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the A-share profit cycle, suggesting that the bottom of the current profit cycle in A-shares may occur in the second half of 2025, with technology and manufacturing sectors showing signs of recovery while consumption and pharmaceuticals remain at historical lows [1][7]. Macro Perspective: Transmission Logic of Social Financing, PPI, and A-share Profit Cycle - Historical data indicates a high correlation between A-share profit cycles and policy changes, with monetary expansion preceding profit cycles. For instance, from 2012 to 2015, various macro indicators reflected this trend, although PPI and PMI stabilized more slowly. The cumulative growth rate of "credit + non-standard + bonds" over 12 months is preferred for predicting financing conditions, leading PPI and PMI turning points by 3-4 quarters [2]. Micro Perspective 1: Observing Industry Cycle Position through ROE Marginal Changes - The amplitude and wavelength of Return on Equity (ROE) provide a multi-dimensional view of industry cycles. Supply typically determines ROE wavelength, while demand drives the direction of cycles. A set of tracking indicators based on ROE marginal changes has been developed to reflect the cycle position of core assets across different industries [3]. Micro Perspective 2: Systematic Errors in Market Consensus Forecasts - A-share consensus profit growth forecasts tend to be systematically overestimated, reflecting changes in market expectations. Analysis from 2012 to 2023 shows that forecast errors are larger at the beginning of economic cycle bottoms, with downward adjustments throughout the year. In years of rapid recovery, such as 2017 and 2021, forecasts are often revised upward during earnings seasons [4]. Micro Perspective 3: Textual Analysis of Financial Reports - Analysis of earnings forecasts and official reports reveals common issues in the technology and manufacturing sectors, such as insufficient demand and deteriorating competitive landscapes. Core reasons for losses in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors include economic downturns, e-commerce impacts, and cost increases. Factors for turning losses into profits include operational efficiency improvements, market recovery, strategic adjustments, and non-recurring gains [6]. Current Analysis of A-share Profit Cycle Based on the Framework - If the bottom rebound of social financing growth continues, a turning point in the PPI cycle is expected in the second half of 2025, leading to stabilization and recovery in A-share revenue, profit growth, and ROE levels by the end of 2025. The technology sector has entered a recovery phase since 2023, while manufacturing sectors like engineering machinery and lithium batteries have shown clear recovery trends. However, consumption and pharmaceuticals have not yet shown definitive turning points, remaining at historical lows [7].