新能源板块估值提升
Search documents
技术破局,新能源板块性价比如何?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-19 02:06
Group 1: Perovskite Technology in Photovoltaics - Perovskite technology is considered one of the most promising next-generation photovoltaic technologies due to its high theoretical efficiency, low cost, and wide application scenarios [1] - By 2025, China has achieved a series of world-leading results in perovskite technology, continuously breaking world records in conversion efficiency [1] - Despite significant laboratory achievements, challenges remain for large-scale commercial application, particularly in uniformity and long-term stability of large-area production [1] - The mainstream companies in the industry are actively investing in perovskite technology and have made good progress, with expectations for commercial application by around 2030, initially in high-end markets [1] Group 2: Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction due to their safety and high energy density, making them a key development direction for next-generation high-performance batteries [2] - The development of solid-state batteries has accelerated significantly under the dual drivers of policy support and market demand, with leading companies establishing pilot production lines [2] - The industry is expected to see solid-state batteries achieve small-scale production by around 2027, with broader applications in low-altitude economy and robotics by 2028-2029, and gradual entry into mid-to-high-end power sectors by 2030 [2] Group 3: Valuation of the New Energy Sector - The new energy sector has experienced a significant valuation compression from 2021 to 2024, with the photovoltaic index dropping approximately 40% in 2024 [3] - As of October 2025, the valuation of major photovoltaic companies is around 15 times the expected earnings for 2026, indicating that current stock prices do not fully reflect the industry's future growth potential [3] - The new energy sector is currently positioned at a relatively low valuation compared to other growth sectors, providing a compelling value proposition for investors seeking growth and valuation safety [3] Group 4: Future Outlook for the New Energy Sector - The new energy sector's valuation is expected to rise due to performance recovery, policy expectations, and technological innovation [4] - The "anti-involution" policy and improved supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to lead to rational price returns and enhanced corporate profitability, supporting valuation increases [4] - The introduction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has provided a long-term vision for the industry, boosting confidence and attracting more long-term capital into the new energy sector [4] - The acceleration of industrialization for next-generation technologies like perovskite and solid-state batteries is expected to inject new growth momentum into the sector [4]
从“内卷”到“反内卷”,新能源赛道迎来新周期?
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-11-14 13:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in the renewable energy sector, driven by policy support, demand recovery, and technological advancements, highlighting investment opportunities in this space [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The renewable energy sector has seen a strong rebound since mid-2025, with significant increases in photovoltaic, lithium battery, and energy storage segments, driven by three main factors: policy support, rising demand, and technological progress [2][3][4]. - The sector experienced a 60% decline from its peak in October 2021 to April 2025, but has shown signs of bottoming out and recovery [2][3]. - The demand surge is primarily from the electric vehicle sector, with new models being launched and enhanced policies stimulating market activity [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand structure in the photovoltaic sector is gradually improving due to government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and overcapacity [6][7]. - The energy storage market is on the brink of explosive growth, driven by both domestic and international demand, particularly in mature markets like Europe and North America [7][8]. - The lithium battery sector is transitioning from oversupply to a more balanced state, with increasing utilization rates and rising prices for certain components [8][9]. Group 3: Policy and Strategic Developments - The "anti-involution" policy aims to mitigate price wars and promote quality over quantity in the renewable energy sector, leading to a recovery in prices and profitability [10][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted focus towards high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of clean energy and storage systems [12][13]. - The integration of production capacities in the photovoltaic sector is being explored to eliminate outdated capacities while ensuring reasonable compensation for exiting companies [11]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The article highlights advancements in perovskite solar technology and solid-state batteries, with expectations for commercial viability by 2030 and 2027, respectively [15][16]. - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to see small-scale production by 2027, with broader applications in various sectors by 2030 [16]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the renewable energy sector is considered attractive, especially compared to other high-growth sectors, providing a favorable risk-reward balance for investors [17][18]. - The sector's recovery, policy support, and technological advancements are expected to drive further valuation increases [18][19]. - Investors are advised to consider both targeted investments in specific companies and broader index-based investments to mitigate risks [21][22].