2026 年全球资产配置展望 20251121 2026 年的投资有两个核心关切：第一是股票和黄金的牛市能否延续；第二是 如果牛市有所改变，应采取哪些应对措施。近期中国、美股及黄金都有一些回 调，反映市场开始思考未来趋势改变的可能性。 当前黄金、美股和中国债券估值较高，美债和原油等商品估值较低。A 股和港股估值适中。地缘政治事件可能冲击市场，通常对股票不利，对 黄金和商品有推升作用。 维持超配中国股票和黄金的策略，但需注意波动风险。增加商品配置以 对冲股票和黄金牛市趋势改变的风险。中国股票风格应更均衡，价值与 周期板块可能补涨。 如何分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律？ 分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律时，可以通过历史数据总结其特点。例如， 美股牛市占总市场时间比例较长（84%），单次牛市时长约为 5.6 年，而熊市 较短，因此分析其顶部性价比不高。而中国股票波动较大，牛熊切换频繁，需 要更关注顶部判断。同样，黄金牛熊分布均衡，但单次周期较长，因此顶部判 断也很重要。 摘要 全球股票和黄金市场受益于技术革命和成长股跑赢价值股的趋势，中国 股票表现优于美国股票。中金建议超配黄金和中国科技股，低配商品和 美元资产，该策 ...

文章分析认为，这场技术革命的实现，得益于经过精心设计、旨在确保平稳转型的长期国家战略。该战略涵盖了研发、制造到采购全流程的规划，同时也包 括系统的能源规划与布局。例如，在青藏高原建设绵延数百公里的大型太阳能电站，由于高寒气候有利于能量保存，这些电站产生的电能经过高效储存后， 将被输送到数千公里之外。通过特高压输电线路，这些清洁能源被直接输送至人工智能训练等大型数据中心，中国在这些领域同样处于全球领先地位。 文章进一步分析称，这一精准战略还着力推动工厂自动化，以降低电动汽车等产品的制造成本，这些产品正被出口至全球各地。值得关注的是，近十年来中 国汽车用户数量已大幅增长，尤其是规模急剧扩大的中等收入群体绝大多数跳过了燃油车阶段，直接迈入了电动汽车时代。这也解释了为何许多欧洲游客到 访中国时，会对街头异常的静谧感到惊讶。 西班牙媒体"ARA"网站近日刊文称，在一些人的刻板印象中，中国被视为只会模仿且缺乏创新精神的发展中国家，如今这已成为历史。现在，这个全球第二 大经济体，正崛起为科技、科研与经济等领域的创新源头。最令人惊叹的是，这些进步与创新正以惊人的速度融入到普通民众的日常生活。 西班牙媒体"ARA"网站报道截图 ...

Group 1: Perovskite Technology in Photovoltaics - Perovskite technology is considered one of the most promising next-generation photovoltaic technologies due to its high theoretical efficiency, low cost, and wide application scenarios [1] - By 2025, China has achieved a series of world-leading results in perovskite technology, continuously breaking world records in conversion efficiency [1] - Despite significant laboratory achievements, challenges remain for large-scale commercial application, particularly in uniformity and long-term stability of large-area production [1] - The mainstream companies in the industry are actively investing in perovskite technology and have made good progress, with expectations for commercial application by around 2030, initially in high-end markets [1] Group 2: Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction due to their safety and high energy density, making them a key development direction for next-generation high-performance batteries [2] - The development of solid-state batteries has accelerated significantly under the dual drivers of policy support and market demand, with leading companies establishing pilot production lines [2] - The industry is expected to see solid-state batteries achieve small-scale production by around 2027, with broader applications in low-altitude economy and robotics by 2028-2029, and gradual entry into mid-to-high-end power sectors by 2030 [2] Group 3: Valuation of the New Energy Sector - The new energy sector has experienced a significant valuation compression from 2021 to 2024, with the photovoltaic index dropping approximately 40% in 2024 [3] - As of October 2025, the valuation of major photovoltaic companies is around 15 times the expected earnings for 2026, indicating that current stock prices do not fully reflect the industry's future growth potential [3] - The new energy sector is currently positioned at a relatively low valuation compared to other growth sectors, providing a compelling value proposition for investors seeking growth and valuation safety [3] Group 4: Future Outlook for the New Energy Sector - The new energy sector's valuation is expected to rise due to performance recovery, policy expectations, and technological innovation [4] - The "anti-involution" policy and improved supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to lead to rational price returns and enhanced corporate profitability, supporting valuation increases [4] - The introduction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has provided a long-term vision for the industry, boosting confidence and attracting more long-term capital into the new energy sector [4] - The acceleration of industrialization for next-generation technologies like perovskite and solid-state batteries is expected to inject new growth momentum into the sector [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 Fortune China 500 Summit was held in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Navigating Trends: The Next 25 Years of the 21st Century" [1] - In 2024, the total revenue of the companies on the Fortune China 500 list reached $14.2 trillion, with a net profit of $756.4 billion, marking a growth of approximately 7% compared to the previous year [1] - The total revenue of the 500 companies accounts for about three-quarters of China's GDP, which is projected to be $18.75 trillion in 2024 [1] Group 1: Summit Overview - The summit gathered leaders from top companies and innovative enterprises to discuss how to lead and define a future path that integrates intelligence, resilience, and sustainability [1] - The event featured discussions on eight core topics, including CEO vision dialogues, globalization vs. localization, and the future of green and intelligent industries [4] - Five parallel sessions were held, covering themes such as the next phase of the global energy revolution and the new era of Chinese manufacturing [5] Group 2: Key Participants and Events - Notable speakers included executives from Procter & Gamble, Schneider Electric, and FedEx, among others, who shared insights on industry trends and challenges [6] - The summit also hosted the Most Powerful Women (MPW) breakfast meeting, focusing on overcoming internal competition and seeking growth [8] - The 40 Under 40 lunch event highlighted young leaders driving innovation and industry influence in sectors like AI and green technology [9]

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry chain is experiencing unprecedented development opportunities driven by a confluence of technological revolution and market demand [1] Technological Developments - Significant breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are reconstructing the industry's ceiling [1] - The next phase goal for solid-state battery technology is to address the high sensitivity of energy storage systems to cycle life and cost [1] Market Dynamics - The explosive growth of the global energy storage market is providing unexpected capacity space for the lithium battery industry [1] - The vast application scenarios and capital return from the energy storage market are accelerating the research and industrialization of cutting-edge technologies like solid-state batteries [1] Industry Outlook - The lithium battery industry chain is expected to undergo a value reassessment in this wave of technological and market changes [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [3] - Philippe Aghion's work emphasizes the central role of innovation in economic development, highlighting the dual nature of technological revolutions as both a threat and an opportunity [3] - The article discusses the characteristics of general-purpose technologies, which include the generation of secondary innovations, gradual cost improvements, and widespread diffusion across economic sectors [4] Group 2 - Secondary innovations are crucial for adapting general-purpose technologies to specific sectors, leading to productivity improvements and long-term growth, although they may initially slow GDP growth [5] - There are instances where society may not optimally adopt new technologies due to a lack of secondary innovations or widespread acceptance, leading to the persistence of suboptimal standards [6] - The adoption of new general-purpose technologies requires time for users to learn efficient usage, which can lead to price reductions for older technology as newer versions become more efficient [7] Group 3 - Households exhibit similar delays in adopting new technologies as businesses, primarily influenced by price declines [8] - Delays in the spread of technological waves, such as the electricity revolution, can be attributed to infrastructure and institutional deficiencies in other countries [9] - Measuring productivity gains from new general-purpose technologies can be challenging, particularly in the service sector, where improvements may not be well reflected in productivity statistics [10] Group 4 - Automation and artificial intelligence are increasingly impacting production activities, yet the expected surge in growth rates in developed countries has not materialized, possibly due to the continued necessity of labor in key processes [11] - Historical perspectives reveal that fears of job loss due to automation have existed for centuries, but technological advancements have often led to positive employment outcomes [12] - Studies indicate that increased automation in factories correlates with job creation, particularly in non-skilled manufacturing roles, challenging the notion that automation solely destroys jobs [12][13] Group 5 - Industries with higher levels of automation tend to experience job growth, suggesting a positive relationship between automation and employment [13] - Measures to slow down automation, such as taxing robots, may hinder productivity and innovation, ultimately harming job creation [14] - The article concludes that while technological revolutions may initially present challenges, they do not necessarily lead to widespread unemployment and can create net job gains in automated environments [15]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that prominent investor Dan Bin has increased his holdings in the third quarter, adding Alibaba to his portfolio, which reflects a strategic shift towards undervalued tech stocks [1][5] - Dan Bin's third-quarter holdings increased from 13 to 17 stocks, with the top ten stocks accounting for 92% of the total portfolio weight, including major companies like Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft [1] - The purchase of 221,000 shares of Alibaba, which now represents 3% of his portfolio, indicates a belief in the company's potential for growth, especially given its current market valuation compared to Amazon [1][4] Group 2 - Dan Bin's investment in Alibaba aligns with his long-term view that artificial intelligence represents a significant technological revolution that could last 10 to 30 years [5] - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of recognizing key individuals and their insights in the investment process, as demonstrated by Dan Bin's previous successful investments in large tech stocks and the electric vehicle sector [4] - The growing interest in Alibaba among Wall Street fund managers suggests that the company is gaining traction as a significant player in the AI space, which could be a valuable consideration for individual investors [4][5]

Core Insights - The next 25 years will be more challenging for developing economies compared to the past 25 years, with significant obstacles such as high debt burdens, weak investment and productivity growth, and rising costs due to climate change [1] - The upcoming Fortune China 500 Summit on November 11 in Shanghai will focus on how leading companies can build sustainable competitive advantages and leverage disruptive technological changes to drive growth [1][2] Group 1: Summit Themes - The summit will explore how companies can navigate through cycles with a long-term vision and establish lasting competitive advantages [1] - Discussions will include how to harness disruptive technological changes to become stronger players in the industry [1] - The event will also address how to lead and define a future path that integrates intelligence, resilience, and sustainability [1] Group 2: Special Events - The MPW Breakfast will focus on the theme "Breaking the Involution, Seeking Incremental Growth," where female leaders will discuss the roots of involution and share experiences [2] - The 40U40 Lunch will gather young leaders recognized in the Fortune 40 Under 40 list, showcasing their innovative practices across key sectors like AI, green technology, and smart manufacturing [2] Group 3: Notable Speakers - A diverse lineup of speakers from various industries will participate, including executives from technology, healthcare, and finance sectors [3][5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the delay between the emergence of general-purpose technologies and subsequent economic growth acceleration, questioning why previous technological revolutions did not lead to mass unemployment as feared by historical figures like Ned Ludd and John Maynard Keynes. It also explores the future of the artificial intelligence revolution in terms of job creation versus destruction [1][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of General-Purpose Technologies - General-purpose technologies are characterized by three fundamental features: they spawn numerous secondary waves of innovation, they improve over time leading to reduced user costs, and they become ubiquitous across all sectors of the economy [3][4]. - Secondary innovations are crucial as they adapt general-purpose technologies to specific sector needs, enhancing productivity and serving as a source of long-term growth. However, these innovations require time and resource reallocation, which can temporarily lower GDP growth rates [5][8]. Group 2: Delays in Technology Adoption - There are instances where society may never optimally adopt new technologies due to a lack of secondary innovations or widespread acceptance, leading to missed opportunities for productivity improvements [7]. - The transition from old to new general-purpose technologies often intensifies the process of creative destruction, as new firms can avoid the costs associated with transitioning from outdated technologies [8]. Group 3: Impact on Employment - Historical perspectives reveal that fears of machines destroying jobs have existed for centuries, but technological advancements have often led to positive effects on production, exports, and employment [13][14]. - Automation has been shown to create more jobs than it destroys, with studies indicating that a 1% increase in automation can lead to a 0.25% increase in employment two years later and a 0.4% increase ten years later [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion on Technological Revolutions - The article challenges two common misconceptions: that technological revolutions inevitably lead to accelerated growth and that they are detrimental to employment. While growth may accelerate, it often requires a time lag, and inappropriate institutional frameworks can hinder the potential benefits of new technologies [17][18].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining caution towards controllable factors while remaining optimistic about uncontrollable ones, highlighting the resilience of entrepreneurial spirit despite macroeconomic fluctuations [2] - It discusses the shift in investment strategies and entrepreneurial logic in the context of a new paradigm in Chinese technology investment, driven by a wave of young entrepreneurs and scientists [2] Group 1: Investment Focus - There is a growing preference for hard technology and long-term value in investment decisions, with a notable emphasis on projects that demonstrate significant technological breakthroughs [5][7] - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding market needs as a critical threshold for hard technology entrepreneurs, indicating that successful market entry can lead to sustainability [10] Group 2: Changing Investment Logic - The transition from mobile internet to hard technology has altered the investment logic, with a focus on long-term project development requiring around ten years of accumulation [9] - Investors are now prioritizing projects that adapt to specific market needs and have the potential for ecosystem development, rather than those that simply aim for rapid monetization [9][10] Group 3: Caution in Investment - The article advises against blindly chasing trends in a rapidly changing market, suggesting that early-stage investors should focus on areas they understand well and develop unique insights [12] - It notes the lengthy process of bringing laboratory products to market, which can take up to 14 years, while current fund lifespans are often shorter, necessitating a strategic approach to investment [12] Group 4: Entrepreneurial Resilience - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to maintain a fast pace while also ensuring longevity in their ventures, as the window for success in the AI-driven era is becoming increasingly narrow [14] - The article underscores the importance of survival in entrepreneurship, suggesting that maintaining operational viability is crucial for seizing future opportunities [14]