人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 20260105 当前人民币升值与过去几轮相比具有一些相似点和不同点。2017 年北向资金 大量流入，对核心龙头白马股拉动效应明显；2020 年至 2021 年，中国供应 链韧性凸显，大制造、新能源产业崛起；2022 年底至 2023 年初，则主要博 弈经济景气承压下的复苏反弹。 当前阶段更接近于 2020 年至 2021 年的状态， 有产业趋势支撑，但不同的是这次主导方式发生变化。过去外资边际影响力较 强，而这次并未看到外资在市场上起到很大作用。例如，从北向资金流入情况 来看，今年二、三季度并不明显，而港股表现也不如 A 股。因此，这次更多是 短线热点穿插逻辑，而非估值修复逻辑，更强调技术革命带来的产业机会，如 AI 基建应用、人形机器人等板块。 在当前环境下有哪些具体投资建议？ 近期人民币升值对市场有哪些影响，哪些行业和主题值得关注？ 近期人民币升值对市场产生了显著影响，特别是在节前和节后的交易日中，市 场成交额有所回暖，即使外资缺位，成交额仍能达到 1.9 万亿甚至 2 万亿以上。 这表明内资对市场的托底效应明显。在此背景下，有几个行业和主题值得关注： 首先是航空 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 资本周期与产业更迭专题 从美股产业更替看 A 股投资主线 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 事项： 解读： 一、从美股市值结构看产业周期兴衰更迭 进入 21 世纪后，美国经济历经互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机，能源、原材料行业一度回潮，市值占比显著 提升；2011 年以来，移动互联网和平台经济崛起，信息技术行业市值占比从 11%飙升至 27%，成为市场主 导力量，能源行业市值占比则大幅下降超 10 个百分点。纵观百年变迁，美国股市行业市值分布从以能源、 工业为主导，逐步过渡到以信息技术、金融为核心，这既反映技术革命对产业结构的深刻影响，也体现美 国经济从制造业主导向服务业和知识经济主导的转型，为理解产业升级与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the overall tone was less hawkish than market expectations. This meeting is conducive to pushing down short - term interest rates and the US dollar index, and driving up risk assets and commodities. The long - term trend of the interest rate curve may face upward pressure due to the impact of technological revolution on the neutral interest rate [2][7] - The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, mainly because the dovish tone of this meeting shows the weakening of the hawkish camp, and the new candidates after the personnel change of the Fed next year tend to be dovish [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Meeting Results - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3 - 3/4 percent. Three people voted against the decision, with Miran asking for a 50 - basis - point rate cut and Goolsbee and Schmid believing there should be no rate cut [2][5][12] - **Policy Outlook**: The meeting statement re - introduced the expression "in considering the extent and timing of...", indicating that future decisions will remain flexible, and consecutive rate cuts are no longer the baseline scenario [3] - **Economic Situation Assessment**: The statement removed the expression "the unemployment rate remained low", indicating that the Fed is worried about the current unemployment rate [3] - **Balance Sheet Policy**: In December, the technical expansion of the balance sheet (RMP) was launched, with an initial monthly purchase of $40 billion in T - Bills (including coupon - bearing Treasury bonds within 3 years if necessary), and the high - level purchase will be maintained until the tax season in April. The Fed also removed the upper limit on the use of the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) [3] - **Dot Plot**: It shows that the interest rate path is the same as in September. The GDP forecast for 2026 was significantly raised, but it did not drive down the unemployment rate forecast. The dot plot still maintains the interest rate cut path, with one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027 [3][6] 3.2 Press Conference Highlights - **Interest Rate Stance**: Powell said that interest rate hikes are not under consideration [4] - **Employment Situation**: Powell said that the risk in the employment market has increased. From June to September, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3%. After considering the QCEW correction, the actual monthly new employment was - 20,000 people [4] - **Inflation Viewpoint**: Powell continues to hold the view that inflation is temporary. Current service inflation is falling, but it is offset by the rising commodity inflation driven by tariffs. He expects that if there are no new tariffs, commodity inflation should peak in the first quarter of next year and start to decline in the second half of next year [11] 3.3 Market Impact - After the meeting, the 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bond yields fell by 8, 6, and 4 basis points respectively. The Bloomberg US dollar index fell 0.44%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rose 0.67% and 0.33% respectively, and gold rebounded [7] 3.4 Economic Forecast Changes | Indicator | 12 - Month Forecast | 9 - Month Forecast | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Real GDP | 2025: 1.7%; 2026: 2.3%; 2027: 2.0%; 2028: 1.9%; Long - term: 1.8% | 2025: 1.6%; 2026: 1.8%; 2027: 1.9%; 2028: 1.8%; Long - term: 1.8% | 2025: +0.1; 2026: +0.5; 2027: +0.1; 2028: +0.1 | | Unemployment Rate | 2025: 4.5%; 2026: 4.4%; 2027: 4.2%; 2028: 4.2%; Long - term: 4.2% | 2025: 4.5%; 2026: 4.4%; 2027: 4.3%; 2028: 4.2%; Long - term: 4.2% | 2027: (0.1) | | PCE Inflation | 2025: 2.9%; 2026: 2.4%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0%; Long - term: 2.0% | 2025: 3.0%; 2026: 2.6%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0%; Long - term: 2.0% | 2025: (0.1); 2026: (0.2) | | Core PCE Inflation | 2025: 3.0%; 2026: 2.5%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0% | 2025: 3.1%; 2026: 2.6%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0% | 2025: (0.1); 2026: (0.1) | | Interest Rate Cut Range | 2025: Cut by 75 basis points; 2026: Cut by 25 basis points; 2027: Cut by 25 basis points | 2025: Cut by 75 basis points; 2026: Cut by 25 basis points; 2027: Cut by 25 basis points | 2025: The annual interest rate cut range remains unchanged; 2026: The annual interest rate cut range remains unchanged; 2027: The annual interest rate cut range remains unchanged | [9]

不负时代。 报道/投资界PEdaily 一年一度创投圈盛会如约而至。2 0 2 5年1 2月2 - 5日，由清科控股（0 1 9 4 5 .HK）、投资 界主办，汇通金控、南山战新投联合主办的第二十五届中国股权投资年度大会在深圳举 行 。 本 届 大 会 集 结 逾 千 位 顶 尖 投 资 人 、 领 军 企 业 家 ， 打 造 兼 具 深 度 洞 察 与 互 动 活 力 的"创·投嘉年华"，致力成为观察中国科技创新的窗口。 " 中 国 股 市 未 来 至 少 会 增 加 1 0 0 万 亿 市 值 。 " 东 方 富 海 董 事 长 、 创 始 合 伙 人 陈 玮 带 来 《投资趋势，不负时代》的主题演讲，分享中国科技时代的财富增长机会。 以下为演讲实录， 经投资界（ID: p e d a i l y 2 0 1 2）编辑： 这一届年会很有意义，不仅是清科2 5周年，也是一个新时代的开始，我们这次面临的是 一个更具挑战、更具未来的时代。作为创投人，我在这个行业待了2 5年，终于迎来了新 的发展机遇。 最近，英伟达的股票从2 1 0多美元一路跌到了1 7 0多美元。这两个月一直有一个观点， 认 为 AI 是不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of the "Doubao Phone," officially known as Nubia M153 Doubao Phone Assistant Technical Preview, developed through a collaboration between ByteDance and Nubia. It highlights the significance of AI assistants in future technology and daily life [1]. Group 1 - The "Doubao Phone" is an engineering prototype where ByteDance is responsible for the AI assistant's definition and experience, while Nubia handles the phone's design and production [1]. - Developer @wuxianlin discovered Smartisan and SmartisanOS-related code in the Doubao Phone's system, indicating a connection to previous technology [1]. - Luo Yonghao expressed support for ByteDance's initiative, emphasizing the unstoppable nature of technological revolutions and the potential ubiquity of AI assistants in daily life [1]. Group 2 - Concerns regarding user privacy and permissions were addressed, questioning why users trust companies like Alibaba and WeChat but are skeptical of ByteDance [2]. - The article suggests that the security of the Android system has been exaggerated, and users may have irrational biases regarding permissions [2].

12月4日消息，罗永浩发微博点赞豆包手机：技术革命是谁都拦不住的，不管试图阻拦它的是各大app， 还是各小app。不要说是公司，即使是各大国和各小国，也一样拦不住。豆包手机能不能成我不知道， 但字节尝试走出这第一步，是非常了不起的，必须点个赞。AI 助手一定会遍地开花，我们的生活也会 完全离不开它，将来的人们会记住这历史性的一天。 责任编辑：李思阳 12月4日消息，罗永浩发微博点赞豆包手机：技术革命是谁都拦不住的，不管试图阻拦它的是各大app， 还是各小app。不要说是公司，即使是各大国和各小国，也一样拦不住。豆包手机能不能成我不知道， 但字节尝试走出这第一步，是非常了不起的，必须点个赞。AI 助手一定会遍地开花，我们的生活也会 完全离不开它，将来的人们会记住这历史性的一天。 责任编辑：李思阳 ...

Group 1 - Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, major US stock indices have experienced significant increases, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rising by 40%, 73%, and 112% respectively by December 2, 2025 [1] - The AI sector has contributed significantly to the profits and gains in the US stock market, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks rising approximately 280%, while other S&P components showed limited growth [2] - Concerns about an AI bubble have increased as US stocks reach historical highs, prompting discussions on how to identify and invest in potential bubbles [3][4] Group 2 - Bubbles can be categorized into two types: industrial investment bubbles and secondary market bubbles, each with distinct characteristics and identification methods [5] - The current investment in computer equipment and software in the US has increased from 2.9% to 3.3% of nominal GDP since 2023, contributing significantly to economic growth [6] - Historical trends indicate that while over-investment occurs during technological revolutions, it often lays the groundwork for long-term industry growth [7] Group 3 - Secondary market bubbles are characterized by significant deviations in asset prices from earnings, with historical experience guiding the identification of such bubbles [9] - Key indicators for identifying secondary market bubbles include profitability and debt levels, with the "Magnificent Seven" currently having a dynamic P/E ratio around 30, compared to 40-60 during the internet bubble [10][13] - The AI sector has driven substantial returns in the S&P 500, contributing 75% of total returns and 79% of profit growth since the release of ChatGPT [13] Group 4 - The current AI investment phase is characterized by large-scale investments and rising stock prices, with the commercialization of AI applications expected to occur in the next five years [15][21] - The US economy is experiencing a combination of AI innovation cycles, physical investment cycles, and a Federal Reserve easing cycle, which are expected to drive growth [20][25] - The focus on AI is driven by the need for efficiency in high-cost knowledge work, with AI poised to replace many traditional roles [23][24] Group 5 - Investors are encouraged to participate in the AI wave, as both US and Chinese tech companies are heavily investing in AI, making it a necessity for survival in the market [27] - Strategies for participating in the market include long-term investments in index ETFs and multinational companies, particularly in the tech sector [30] - The concentration of capital in tech stocks is attributed to the transition to a post-industrial economy, where time assets become increasingly valuable [31][32]

历史的回响：技术革命是财富增长的真正引擎 但斌从1998年君安研究所的岁月谈起，以亲身经历串联起中国资本市场的变迁。他指出，过去数十年间，电子计算机、互联网、移动互联网三大技术浪潮催 生了无数投资机遇。尽管期间经历金融危机、高通胀等干扰，但推动社会前进的根本动力始终是技术进步。 "如果我们回到2004年东方港湾成立时，能预见移动互联网时代，就应该将全部资金换成港币买入腾讯。"但斌以21年六七百倍回报的案例，道出时代机遇的 惊人能量。而今面对2022年开启的人工智能革命，他直言东方港湾做出了与当年类似的战略抉择——重仓以英伟达为代表的AI领军企业。 全球视野：选择比努力更重要 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。东方港湾董事长但斌主旨演讲。但斌以一场充满历史纵深感的演讲， 向在场年轻分析师们传递了一个核心信念：我们正站在一个堪比工业革命的智能时代开端，投资生涯中最大的遗憾，莫过于辜负这样的伟大时代。 针对当前市场对AI泡沫的担忧，但斌引用历 ...

《AI风暴：中美博弈与全球新秩序》一书便是在这一背景下展开的，它不仅深入探讨了中美两国在AI 技术竞争中的博弈，更试图解构这一竞争背后的深层次机制和全球治理的新动向。从技术革命的源头， 到中美两国各自的制度路径，再到全球秩序的重塑，本书通过"技术革命—制度博弈—秩序重构"的框 架，全面呈现了这场AI革命如何影响国家竞争力、国际规则的变迁以及全球治理体系的演进。 在第一维度中，本书揭示了中美两国在AI领域的竞争格局，特别是围绕数据、算力与算法的"新三权分 立"展开的博弈。这不仅是技术层面的较量，更是权力与影响力的争夺。第二维度则深入分析了两国不 同的AI发展路径，分别是美国以"军方硅谷"复合体为支撑的军事化技术模式，以及中国依靠举国体制和 超大市场推动的创新路线。这种路径的分化，不仅揭示了两国技术竞争的差异，更反映了背后制度与战 略思维的差异。第三维度剖析了全球AI治理的悖论与冲突，尤其是数据主权、安全与算法透明度之间 的张力，展示了全球治理框架在技术民族主义与多边合作的冲突中所面临的困境。第四维度通过"韧性 权力"理论提出了中国如何在全球竞争中通过技术创新、制度改革和国际合作，塑造未来的全球AI秩 序。 这场 ...

Core Insights - The current state of the Chinese economy is characterized by a weakening of three fundamental drivers: the large-scale consumption wave driven by technological revolution, the wealth effect tied to real estate, and the external market opportunities created by joining the WTO [4][12][14] - The economy is facing issues of "overdraft," "contraction," and "involution," indicating a need for comprehensive "repair" rather than mere stimulus or simple reforms [7][17] Group 1: Economic Drivers - The technological revolution has led to a significant consumption wave, particularly through the introduction of household appliances, which has been a key factor in economic growth over the past decades [9][10] - The wealth effect associated with real estate has played a crucial role in consumer spending, with a notable decline in this effect leading to reduced consumption despite stable income levels [11][13] - The external market created by China's entry into the WTO has been vital for economic expansion, but current trends indicate a retreat from globalization, contributing to economic stagnation [12][14] Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The economy is experiencing a "contraction" phase, where businesses and government revenues are declining sharply, reflecting a broader economic downturn [15][16] - There is a pressing need for societal and economic "repair" to restore normal consumption patterns and social life, which have been disrupted by the previous economic model [17][18] - The lack of normal social activities, such as marriage and childbirth among younger generations, is indicative of deeper societal issues that affect overall economic health [18]