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盘中突然拉升,碳酸锂交易逻辑有变?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-10 23:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract LC2605 closing at 95,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% [1] - Analysts believe that the current high price of lithium carbonate futures is supported by strong fundamentals, with a balanced supply and demand situation remaining intact [3] - Despite strong supply and demand fundamentals, the market is showing signs of marginal weakening due to seasonal demand shifts, leading to a "can go up or down" market characteristic [3] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 49% in November, reaching a historical high, with expectations for continued high production levels in December [3] - Weekly lithium carbonate production as of December 4 was approximately 21,900 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of about 740 tons [3] - Inventory levels of lithium carbonate have been decreasing, but the rate of reduction has slowed compared to November, with a weekly inventory of about 114,000 tons as of December 4, down by approximately 2,366 tons [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the supply-demand balance may become looser in December, potentially leading to inventory accumulation by the end of the month, with January demand likely to decline due to market conditions [4] - The market's core concern is the recovery progress of major manufacturers and the sustainability of seasonal demand, particularly focusing on the uncertain resumption of operations at the Ningde Times lithium mine [4] - Current market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of a range-bound movement in lithium carbonate futures prices [4]