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碳酸锂周报:供给扰动频现,锂价偏强-20250721
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was required to halt production, and there was an issue with the compliance of lithium mine approvals in Yichun. Driven by the rebound in lithium prices, the prices of spodumene concentrate and mica increased. Although production in July increased month - on - month, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium was poor, and the growth rate of terminal automobile consumption slowed, maintaining a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [3]. - On the trading floor: Driven by supply disruptions, the price of lithium carbonate started its second round of increase, with significant increases in positions and trading volume during the week, and strong market sentiment [3]. - Future outlook: Despite the weak fundamentals, the resource disruption events remain unresolved, which will boost the trading floor sentiment in the short term. The game between supply disruptions and weak reality may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. The supply of lithium salts will further increase, while downstream material factories' willingness to stockpile actively is poor, and the demand intensity is limited. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues, but the short - term price may still be strong [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate all increased, with the import of 1.3% - 2.2% lithium raw ore rising by 8.85% and the import of 5.5% - 6% lithium concentrate rising by 2.00% [4]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate spot increased by 8.84%, while the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot decreased by 100% [4]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 11.06%, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.80% [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and delivery**: As of July 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,239 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,580 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 377,300 lots [6]. - **Supply side**: As of July 18, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,313 tons, an increase of 155 tons from the previous period. Zangge Lithium stopped production due to compliance issues, and 8 mines in Yichun had approval compliance problems. The enthusiasm for resuming production in lithium salt factories was high [6]. - **Import aspect**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The import volume of lithium ore in May was about 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% [7][8]. - **Demand aspect**: - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of July 18, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The prices of cathode materials increased driven by the rebound of lithium carbonate [9]. - **New energy vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% but a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The growth rate of new energy vehicle consumption slowed down. There were also relevant policies and technological developments [10]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of July 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,990 tons, with factory inventory decreasing and market inventory increasing. The downstream replenishment sentiment was strong, and there may be an inflection point for inventory reduction [11]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook - Supply disruptions are frequent, and lithium prices are strong. Although the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, the resource disruption events are unresolved, and the short - term price may still be strong, with wide - range fluctuations [12]. 3.3 Industry News - Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was ordered to stop lithium resource development due to incomplete mining procedures [13]. - Lanxiao Technology's first 3,300 - ton lithium hydroxide production line in Tibet is undergoing on - site testing and commissioning [13]. - Anhui Shihao's project of an annual production of 2GWh lithium - ion power and energy - storage battery factory entered the pre - approval publicity stage [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrate, and cathode materials [15][17][20][24][26].