智通财经APP获悉，乘联分会数据显示，12月1-7日，全国乘用车市场零售29.7万辆，同比去年12月同期下降32%，较上月同期下降8%，今年以来累计零售 2,178.1万辆，同比增长5%;12月1-7日,全国乘用车厂商批发29.8万辆，同比去年12月同期下降40%，较上月同期下降18%，今年以来累计批发2,706.3万辆，同 比增长10%。 2025年12月开局的车市零售走势不强，由于去年12月市场持续拉升火爆，今年零售增速偏低。以旧换新政策刺激的是换购需求，并非刚性购买需求，消费群 体的政策敏感度极高，需求波动较大。受政策收缩的影响，11月车市零售是环比下降，目前12月初的零售相较11月也是增长偏弱的。 国家宏观经济持续向好，消费信心相对稳定，但由于部分地区的以旧换新和报废更新补贴政策大幅收紧，11月零售出现环比负增长，而且燃油车零售达到下 降22%，因此近期经销商的观望心态也较强。随着反内卷的效果良好，市场促销力度保持温和，因此月初的零售进度并不快。受今年新能源车车购税免税到 期，明年买车多5个点车购税的政策影响，消费者年末购车紧迫感仍会很强。为应对交付周期延长导致的消费者购车成本上升，车企纷纷推出购置税 ...

Group 1: Passenger Car Market Outlook - In November 2025, there will be 20 working days, one less than the same period last year and one more than October, leading to a slightly shorter production and sales period [1] - Policy-driven demand is expected at year-end due to the expiration of the tax exemption for new energy vehicles, increasing consumer urgency to purchase cars before a 5% tax increase next year [1] - Automakers are introducing tax subsidy schemes to mitigate rising consumer costs due to extended delivery times, although these measures are seen as temporary and unsustainable [1] Group 2: Seasonal Factors and Inventory - Seasonal changes, such as colder weather and returning migrant workers, are anticipated to boost car purchasing enthusiasm in rural areas, particularly for new energy and mid-to-low-end fuel vehicles [1] - Adequate inventory is crucial for consumer choice, with November being the optimal time for manufacturers to build stock ahead of the peak sales period from December to the Spring Festival [1] Group 3: Export Growth - China's automotive exports have shown strong growth in the second half of the year, with increasing recognition of domestic new energy vehicles in overseas markets and rapid expansion of marketing networks [2] - Despite a complex external trade environment, the pressure for inventory reduction in Russia has lessened, reducing negative growth pressure on China's automotive exports to Russia and Central Asia [2]