智驾再升级，新周期的阿尔法机会——整车行业 2025 年 度中期投资策略 20250710 摘要 新能源汽车上半年保持 30%增长，但渗透率受价格战影响低于预期，徘 徊在 50%-52%。政策和监管干预有望缓解价格战压力，利好具备强产 品力的新能源车企。 整车领域看好理想、吉利、小米和比亚迪，受益于新车周期和海外扩张。 小鹏在智驾领域的发展及其芯片应用带来新机遇，值得关注。 上半年汽车销量良好，6 月批发量同比增长 25%，新能源汽车增长 30%。库存经历上升后于 5 月下旬至 7 月开始下降，目前处于相对低位。 政策补贴预计全年保持 4%的上牌增速，下半年增速或因高基数放缓。 类似于 2017 年，抢装效应和强新车周期企业有望推动创新高行情。 高阶智驾城市 OA 渗透率快速提升，从 2024 年的 9%增至 2025 年 5 月 的 15%以上，预计 2026 年将翻倍至 30%以上，受益于技术优化和用 户体验提升。 中国新能源汽车出口占比已达海外总量约 30%，纯电动车占比 33%， 插混车型占比 13%。欧洲市场需求回升，预计渗透率将从 20%提升至 32%，为中国车企提供机遇。 比亚迪、上汽、吉利和领 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing growth in both production and sales, with June figures showing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% in production and 13.8% in sales [1][3] - The first half of 2023 saw cumulative production and sales of 15.62 million and 15.65 million vehicles, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [1][3] Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Market - Both passenger and commercial vehicle markets are showing positive growth in the first half of the year, with passenger vehicle production and sales reaching 13.52 million and 13.53 million, marking increases of 13.8% and 13% year-on-year [3][4] - Commercial vehicle production and sales totaled 2.10 million and 2.12 million, with year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 2.6% [3][4] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - The majority of NEV sales are concentrated in the price range of 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, with cumulative sales of 1.51 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [6] - Chinese brand passenger vehicles accounted for 67.3% of the market share in June, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, with a cumulative sales figure of 9.27 million units in the first half of the year [4][6] Commercial Vehicle Exports - The commercial vehicle market saw a significant increase in exports, with June exports reaching 90,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [9][12] - Cumulative exports for the first half of the year reached 501,000 units, also reflecting a growth of 10.5% [9][12] Market Concentration - The top fifteen automotive groups accounted for 92.2% of total sales in the first half of the year, with a combined sales figure of 14.43 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [10] - In the NEV sector, the top fifteen groups sold 6.60 million units, representing a 43% year-on-year growth and capturing 95.1% of the total NEV sales [10] Future Outlook - The industry anticipates the need for stable policy expectations and regulatory measures to ensure healthy and stable operations in the automotive sector [12]

Group 1 - Chery Automobile plans to launch two new SUV models in the UK, indicating a growing presence of Chinese automotive brands in the UK market [1][3] - Chery has previously introduced the Omoda and Jaecoo brands in the UK, reflecting confidence in the local automotive industry and appeal to UK buyers [3][5] - Other Chinese automakers, including Geely and Changan, are also increasing their activity in the UK market, with plans to launch new models [3][5] Group 2 - Chinese automotive brands achieved significant sales growth in the UK, with June sales reaching 18,944 units, accounting for 10% of the market, up from 6% year-on-year [5][6] - The overall market share of Chinese cars in the UK exceeded 8% in the first half of the year, highlighting a rapid expansion into the European market [5][6] - The UK is seen as a new target market for Chinese car manufacturers due to its lack of tariffs on Chinese vehicles, providing a significant opportunity amid rising electric vehicle demand [7][9] Group 3 - The shift of Chinese car manufacturers to the UK is partly driven by changing international trade dynamics, with high tariffs in the EU and North America prompting a search for more profitable markets [6][9] - The UK government’s supportive policies for electric vehicles have created a favorable environment for Chinese brands, which have advantages in electric vehicle technology [9][10] - Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain, including the need for local manufacturing and potential policy changes that could affect market access [9][14] Group 4 - The UK automotive market has a unique characteristic of being both an importer and exporter, with a significant portion of production aimed at export markets [14][15] - The reliance on exports poses risks for manufacturers, especially if local production requirements are enforced, which could increase operational costs for Chinese brands [14][15] - The current influx of Chinese brands into the UK market may lead to increased competition and potential market saturation, necessitating differentiation to avoid product homogeneity [15]

2025年上半年，东风汽车出口业务表现强劲。据最新销量快报显示，2025年上半年，东风出口汽车50711辆，同比增长75%，其中6月单月出口 13460辆，同比增幅高达109%。乘用车与商用车出口均实现显著增长，为冲刺下半年奠定坚实基础。 其中，商用车板块，1-6月公司累计出口东风商用车11907辆，同比增长19%。其中，6月出口量为3048辆，同比增长77%。 1-6月,公司出口汽车 Am 同比增长75% / 其中,6月出口 B46 A 同比增长109% / F 1-6月，公司出口东风乘用车 38804 辆,同比增长105% 1-6月，公司出口东风商用车 11907 辆, 同比增长19% 其中6月出口 3048 辆, 同比增长77% O DONGFENG () DONGFENG 面 向 全 国 DRIVE YOUR DREAM Q 第一商用车网 < 前7月商用车销234万+ 4% 中汽协如何看 待以旧换新政策影响?|头条 :A 其中6月出口 10412 辆,同比增长122% ● 中国兵器工业集团换帅：周治平接任董事长 | 头条 ● 拿下500台出口大单！玉柴越南客车动力订单激增307% ● 远程/福田/江淮 ...

Overall Market - June 2025 Production Analysis - In June 2025, the total production of passenger vehicles reached 2,441,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [3] - Cumulative production from January to June 2025 was 13,246,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [3] Overall Market - June 2025 Retail and Wholesale Sales Analysis - Retail sales in June 2025 reached 2,084,000 units, up 18.1% year-on-year and 7.6% month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 10,901,000 units, a 10.8% increase [12] - Wholesale sales in June 2025 hit 2,490,000 units, a 15.1% year-on-year increase and a 7.5% month-on-month increase, with cumulative wholesale sales for the year at 13,279,000 units, up 12.2% [18] New Energy Market - June 2025 Analysis - In June 2025, production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1,200,000 units, a 28.3% year-on-year increase [20] - Retail sales of NEVs in June 2025 were 1,111,000 units, up 29.7% year-on-year, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 5,468,000 units, a 33.3% increase [21] - NEV wholesale sales in June 2025 reached 1,241,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [21] Market Characteristics in June 2025 - June 2025 saw record highs in retail, wholesale, and production for passenger vehicles, with exports also reaching historical highs [15] - The market experienced a significant increase in the penetration rate of NEVs, reaching 53.3% in June 2025 [24] - The share of domestic brands in the passenger vehicle market was 64.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [16] Export Performance - In June 2025, total passenger vehicle exports reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [17] - NEVs accounted for 41.1% of total exports, with a significant year-on-year increase [25] Inventory and Production Dynamics - Overall inventory in the passenger vehicle industry decreased by 150,000 units in June 2025, indicating a positive production and sales balance [19] - The production of passenger vehicles in June 2025 was 2,419,000 units, contributing to a healthy inventory turnover [17] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience structural differentiation, with traditional fuel vehicle production facing challenges while NEVs continue to grow [30] - The implementation of "old-for-new" policies is anticipated to stimulate further demand in the automotive sector [32]

前5个月，中国整车对新兴市场出口量与出口金额均实现了同比增长。数据显示，前5个月，中国对新兴 市场202个国家和地区出口汽车整车233.0万辆，同比增长16.9%；出口额为380.8亿美元，同比增长 8.1%。其中，对阿联酋、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦出口量增幅较大，分别为64.2%、 51.9%、131.8%和86.9%。 孙晓红认为，前5个月中国整车海外出口市场最显著的变化是区域重心转移，从过度依赖单一市场向多 元化布局转变。中东、东南亚、澳新和拉美市场均有所建树，面对美国关税调整预期引发的不确定性， 中国整车出口整体表现稳健。 出口数量为285.4万辆，同比增长16.8%；出口金额为488.9亿美元，同比增长5.3%。虽然面对复杂的国 际形势，但前5个月中国汽车的出口量与出口额均实现了同比增长，充分展现了中国汽车行业的强大竞 争力和韧性。值得特别关注的是，在增长的同时，越来越多的中国汽车企业加速布局海外新兴市场，海 外新增长点不断涌现。中国机电产品进出口商会汽车国际化专业委员会秘书长孙晓红表示，今年前5个 月，中国汽车出口呈现"总量企稳、结构分化"的鲜明特征，预计2025年，中国汽车整车出口将保持 ...

据中国汽车工业协会整理的海关总署数据显示 ， 20 2 5 年 5 月 , 汽车整车出口 69.5 万辆，环比 增长 12% ，同比增长 22.1% ，出口金额达 119.9 亿美元，环比增长 7.4% ，同比增长 13.7% 。 2025 年 1- 5 月， 汽车整车出口 285.3 万辆，同比增长 16.6% ；出口金额达 489 亿美元，同比 增长 5.3% 。 来源： 中汽协会行业信息部 ...

智通财经7月4日早间新闻精选 1、国务院发布关于做好自由贸易试验区全面对接国际高标准经贸规则推进高水平制度型开放试点措施 复制推广工作的通知。其中提到，深入实施自由贸易试验区提升战略，主动对接国际高标准经贸规则， 构建与中国式现代化相适应的管理制度和监管模式，打造透明稳定可预期的制度环境。 2、7月3日下午，商务部召开例行新闻发布会，有记者就有关美国总统拟带企业团访华的报道进行提 问。商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，关于这个问题，我没有可以提供的信息，但是中方的态度是一贯的 且明确的。希望美方与中方相向而行，在两国元首的战略引领下，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢 的原则，不断增进共识，减少误解，加强合作，共同推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。 3、商务部新闻发布会上，有记者就美国与越南达成贸易协议一事提问。对此，商务部新闻发言人何咏 前表示，中方的立场是一贯的，我们乐见各方通过平等磋商解决与美方经贸分歧，但坚决反对任何一方 以牺牲中方利益为手段达成交易。如果出现这样的情况，中方将坚决予以反制，维护自身正当权益。 4、据报道，特朗普政府已取消部分对华芯片设计软件出口许可要求。另据《南华早报》援引西门子、 新 ...

1.【蔚来 NIO Day2025调整至秋季举办，将发布第三代ES8车型】7月3日消息，蔚来今日发文称， 在和社区部分用户沟通后，决定将今年的NIO Day放在秋天举办。此外，官方还预告："第三代ES8 王者归来，没有比NIO Day更合适的发布场合了"。对于调整原因，蔚来透露主要有三个：更适宜聚 会的气候，更多区域和场地的可能，匹配今年重磅产品的传播与交付节奏。NIO Day2025 的具体举 办日期，将在后续进行公布。此外，蔚来还透露，由于NIO Day2025 调整至秋季举办，筹备周期 紧、资源协调复杂度高，本届NIO Day将暂停城市申办机制，筹委会将结合场地资源、气候条件及全 局规划，确定举办城市。（IT之家） 扫码订阅汽车交通产业日报， 精选行业新闻，帮你省时间！ 此外，如果您还想 查公司、找项目、看行业，深入了解人形机器人、商业航天、AGI等热门赛道 ，欢迎加入睿兽分析会员，解锁相关行业图谱和报告等。 （活动期间加入会员可免费获赠一份 产业日报） 2.【中汽协： 5月汽车商品出口金额206.7亿美元，同比增长12.2%】据中国汽车工业协会整理的海 关总署数据显示，2025年5月，汽车商品进出口总 ...

中国汽车正越来越多地卖向非洲。 根据乘联会秘书长崔东树公布的数据，2025年1月—5月中国汽车向非洲出口量达到22.2万辆，同比增长高达67%；其中，5月单月出口5.8万辆，同比增长 达104%。在一系列中国汽车出口目的地中，非洲地区的数据表现最为突出。 在业内人士看来，非洲汽车消费市场的潜力很大。非洲人口占全球人口的15%，但汽车销量仅占全球汽车产量的3%左右，每千人保有量仅约40辆。伴随 当地生活水平提高，汽车有望逐步进入普及阶段。 据海关总署披露的数据显示，2025年1月—5月，中国对非洲国家出口额达5995.7亿元，增长20.2%，"中国制造"在非洲市场的接受度正不断提高，特别体 现在对电动汽车、工程机械的进口需求激增。 非洲大陆对中国机动车的需求旺盛且多样化，南非、阿尔及利亚、埃及、尼日利亚、摩洛哥等国位居前列。 在这背后，是中国车企将电动汽车带进了非洲市场。面对电力短缺、充电设施稀缺、电价高且波动大等现实问题，中国车企选择以混合动力汽车作为市场 开拓先锋，逐渐在当地开拓市场。从2025年1月至4月的数据来看，出口插混0.3万辆，同比增长1481%；混合动力0.2万辆，同比增长362%。 非洲地区每 ...