1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand expectation for new energy metals is weakening, and they are in a state of volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate remains tight, but the weak sales of electric vehicles at the beginning of the year have weakened consumption expectations. The supply - demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the price of lithium carbonate, while the actual supply - demand of lithium carbonate is tight. The loose supply - demand of polysilicon has led to continuous inventory accumulation, suppressing the price, and industrial silicon has risen due to the expected increase in cost. In the long - term, the expected path of polysilicon supply - side contraction has changed from administrative clearance to market - based clearance, and the polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but the demand expectation is also high, and the expected surplus of supply - demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to cost - side support, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - As of March 17, the price of Tongyang 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton [6]. - As of last week, the domestic inventory was 437,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%; the market inventory was 182,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the factory inventory was 254,850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [6]. - In February, the industrial silicon output was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [6]. - In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the silicon price has rebounded in the short term under cost support. The electricity price in the northwest region fluctuates, and an increase will directly raise the cost. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran may push up the prices of raw materials such as coal and petroleum coke, providing cost support for industrial silicon. On the supply side, the operation rate in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The large - scale factories in the northwest reduced production at the end of January, and the number of operating furnaces has stabilized after the increase. In the future, the operation rate of silicon factories in the northwest is expected to recover, and the operation rate in the southwest will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long - term over - supply pressure. On the demand side, the pressure of polysilicon inventory consumption is high, some silicon material factories continue to carry out maintenance and suspension of production, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; the organic silicon enterprises continue to hold up prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is weakly stable; the demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloy has limited boost [6]. - **Outlook**: Under low valuation and cost support, the silicon price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the changes in cost - side support caused by raw material price changes. In the long - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are still under pressure due to the increasing supply [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is at a high level, and the polysilicon price is under pressure [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - On March 17, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 45.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/kg [7]. - On March 17, the latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,910 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 780 lots [7]. - In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, it is currently the dry season, and the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest is still in a state of production reduction, and the overall polysilicon output is at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak, the production schedule of silicon wafers is still low, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is also increasing, putting pressure on the price. Overall, the weak demand drags down the short - term price trend of polysilicon, and the spot price of polysilicon has been continuously adjusted recently. However, in the long - term, considering that the polysilicon supply is also contracting simultaneously, and leading enterprises are strengthening integration and mergers, the long - term supply - demand of polysilicon is expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation trend [9]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the price trend of polysilicon, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation trend in the long - term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand driving force weakens, and lithium carbonate fluctuates [10]. - **Information Analysis**: - On March 17, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.69% to 155,320 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 2,248 lots to 620,890 lots [10]. - On March 17, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,150 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 156,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 152,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 156,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts on that day increased by 72 lots to 36,465 lots [10]. - **Main Logic**: There is a differentiation between the initial and terminal demand for lithium carbonate. Although the supply - demand in March is still strong, the subsequent performance of the terminal remains to be observed. In the first quarter of 2026, the supply remains relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production reduction, the overall level is high; at the same time, the demand performance is good, and downstream enterprises are actively stocking up after the price correction, and the supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and the social inventory has decreased. The strong demand performance in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have significantly boosted market sentiment, but the sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to February is not optimistic and needs to be further verified in March and April, which is the key to affecting the supply - demand balance in the second quarter. If the power demand in March is still negative, there is a relatively high risk that the initial demand from April to May will fall short of expectations, and corresponding risks need to be guarded against. In summary, the current supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. At the same time, geopolitical events in the Middle East may trigger market transactions for energy substitution, and the problem of the ban on exports in Zimbabwe has not been resolved; however, the power - end demand is not optimistic, and the sales volume from March to April may continue to decline. Therefore, the short - term price fluctuates, waiting for further driving forces [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, but there are signs of weakening demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index includes the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index, with values of 2591.86 (- 0.61%), 2926.66 (- 0.58%), and 2565.21 (- 0.51%) respectively [49]. - **Sector Index**: For the new energy commodity index on March 17, 2026, the daily increase was + 0.58%, the increase in the past 5 days was - 1.12%, the increase in the past month was + 3.08%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was + 1.77% [51].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand expectation for new energy metals is weakening, and they are in a state of shock consolidation. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains tight, while that of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the price of lithium carbonate, but the actual supply - demand is tight. The polysilicon price is suppressed by inventory accumulation, and the price of industrial silicon is boosted by the expected cost increase. In the long - term, the polysilicon supply contraction path has changed, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, and the expected supply - demand surplus is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 16, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 8650 yuan/ton, in Yunnan is 9300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang is 8850 yuan/ton, in Yunnan is 9750 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of last week, the domestic inventory is 437350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%; market inventory is 182500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; factory inventory is 254850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. - **Production Data**: In February, the industrial silicon output is 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 is 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [5]. - **Export Data**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon is 59036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December is 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the price rebounds in the short term under cost support. The power price in the northwest region fluctuates, and the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran may push up raw material prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the southwest region is at a low level during the dry season, and the northwest plants' production is gradually recovering. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price will fluctuate under low valuation and cost support. In the long - term, the supply increase pressure will put pressure on the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 16, the average transaction price of N - type dense material is 45.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/kg [6]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: On March 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 10690 lots, with no month - on - month change [6]. - **Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon is about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December is about 25115.57 tons. The import volume in December is about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December is about 19051.01 tons [6]. - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon production in the southwest region is in the process of reduction during the dry season, and the output is at a low level. The demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt number is increasing, which exerts pressure on the price. In the long - term, the supply is also contracting, and the future supply - demand may tighten, with the price showing a wide - range fluctuation [8]. - **Outlook**: The polysilicon price will fluctuate widely in the long - term due to weak demand and low supply [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Position Data**: On March 16, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increases by 4.96% to 159620 yuan/ton, and the total position increases by 1663 lots to 618642 lots [9]. - **Spot Price Data**: On March 16, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4150 yuan/ton; the evening market price is 154500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1700 yuan/ton. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 151500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3750 yuan/ton; the evening price is 154500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1700 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreases by 10 lots to 36393 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The primary and terminal demands for lithium carbonate are differentiated. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively strong, and the demand is also good, maintaining a tight balance. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have boosted market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February are not optimistic, and the sales from March to April are crucial for the second - quarter supply - demand balance. If the power demand in March is still negative, the primary demand from April to May may be lower than expected [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index is 2607.75, a decrease of 0.63%; the commodity 20 index is 2943.75, a decrease of 1.02%; the industrial product index is 2578.45, a decrease of 0.05% [49]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On March 16, 2026, the index is 515.70, with a daily decrease of 1.52%, a 5 - day decrease of 2.77%, a monthly increase of 4.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [51].