Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hu Shang A Yi (02589.HK) has shown significant volatility, with a recent surge of nearly 35% before closing at a 28.96% increase, indicating a potential recovery after a prolonged decline since its IPO [1] Company Developments - Hu Shang A Yi announced a ten-year H-share incentive plan, with a cap of 5% of the total share capital, aimed at incentivizing core talent through restricted stock [3] - The company has launched a new sub-brand "Tea Waterfall" targeting Generation Z and students, focusing on products priced below 10 yuan, differentiating its positioning from the main brand [3] - As of now, Hu Shang A Yi has 10,739 stores nationwide, a net increase of 1,303 stores since June 2023, achieving its goal of 10,000 stores set by the founder earlier this year [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hu Shang A Yi reported a gross profit of 572 million yuan, a 10.4% increase from 518 million yuan in the same period last year, maintaining a gross margin of 31.4% [4] - The average daily GMV per store has shown fluctuations, with figures of 4,109 yuan, 4,270 yuan, and 3,753 yuan for the years 2022 to 2024 respectively [4] Industry Context - The new tea beverage industry is transitioning from rapid growth to a more refined approach, with the growth rate slowing down and competition intensifying among leading companies [5] - Industry forecasts predict revenue growth rates for Hu Shang A Yi of 28%, 19%, and 15% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 33%, and 17%, indicating a downward trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hu Shang A Yi (02589.HK) has shown significant volatility, with a recent surge of 28.96% to HKD 116.9 per share, marking a rebound of over 45% from its lows since listing [1][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Hu Shang A Yi announced a ten-year H-share incentive plan, with a cap of 5% of the total share capital, aimed at incentivizing core talent through restricted stock [3]. - The company is launching a sub-brand "Tea Waterfall" targeting Gen Z and students, focusing on products priced below 10 yuan, differentiating from the main brand [3]. - As of now, Hu Shang A Yi has 10,739 stores nationwide, an increase of 1,303 stores from 9,436 in June, achieving its "10,000 store plan" set by the founder in April 2023 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The average daily GMV per store for Hu Shang A Yi was 4,109 yuan in 2022, 4,270 yuan in 2023, and 3,753 yuan in 2024 [4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross profit of 572 million yuan, a 10.4% increase from 518 million yuan in the same period last year, maintaining a gross margin of 31.4% [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - The challenges faced by Hu Shang A Yi reflect a broader trend in the new tea beverage industry, transitioning from rapid growth to a more refined operational focus [5]. - The tea beverage industry is entering a "Warring States" period, with growth rates slowing down and competitive dynamics intensifying, leading to a forecasted revenue growth rate of 28%, 19%, and 15% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 33%, and 17% respectively [5].