In Gold We Trust！ 9月，黄金价格再次成为全球焦点，现货黄金接连突破关键阻力位，一举冲破3600美元/盎司，国内黄金饰品价格也跟着飙升，直逼1070元/克。这场黄金 市场的热潮，到底是短期波动，还是大时代变革的序幕？全球投资者追捧黄金，是降息周期与美元走弱下的理性选择，还是暗含着对美元信用体系的深度 不信任？别急，且听我们慢慢道来： 01 黄金十年大牛市：从预言到现实的超级周期 2024年的黄金市场表现亮眼。以美元计价，黄金全年上涨27.2%；以欧元计价，涨幅更是高达35.6%。进入2025年，这一涨势仍在延续，截至9月9日，现 货黄金从年初的2657美元/盎司一路高涨，冲破3600美元大关，累计上涨近1000美元/盎司，年内涨幅近40%，走出了极为强劲的牛市行情。尤其是最近半 个月，在美联储降息预期等因素推动下，国际金价持续上扬，不断刷新历史高位。更值得关注的是，在所有法定货币计价体系下，黄金都创下了历史新 高，这并非偶然，而是长期趋势的体现。 其实早在2020年，格隆汇研究院就前瞻性地提出"黄金十年"的论断，如今，这一预言正逐步成为现实。在多次年度策略会和中期策略会中，我们反复强 调"大多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, highlighting a potential long-term bull market driven by various economic and geopolitical factors, suggesting that gold is becoming a core asset in investment portfolios [2][3][4]. Gold Market Performance - In 2024, gold prices increased by 27.2% in USD and 35.6% in EUR, with spot gold rising from $2657 to over $3600 per ounce, marking a nearly 40% increase within the year [3]. - The prediction for gold prices by the end of the decade is $4800 per ounce under baseline scenarios, potentially reaching $8900 per ounce in high inflation scenarios [4]. Economic Drivers - The article identifies three main drivers for gold's strong performance: debt crises, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments exceeding military spending, indicating a critical financial situation [8]. - Inflation remains stubbornly high, with U.S. core CPI at 3.2% and Eurozone core HICP at 2.7%, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [10]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally have purchased over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with 2024 seeing a record 1086 tons bought, indicating a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [5]. - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has increased from approximately 9% in 2016 to 18.2% in 2024, reflecting a trend of "re-monetization" of gold [5]. Investment Strategy - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy is becoming less effective, prompting a shift towards a new asset allocation model that includes a significant portion of gold [13][14]. - A proposed new allocation model suggests 45% in stocks, 15% in bonds, 15% in safe-haven gold, and 10% in performance gold (silver and mining stocks) [16]. Market Dynamics - The article notes a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold, with a weakening dollar expected to further boost gold prices [18]. - The dollar's share in global reserves has decreased from 70% to 58%, indicating a potential decline in its dominance and enhancing gold's appeal as a stable asset [18]. Practical Guidance - Investors are encouraged to consider practical strategies for gold investment, including core allocations in physical gold and gold ETFs, as well as exploring opportunities in silver and mining stocks [20].