2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 这一年，中国金融市场在内外变局中走出独特节奏，核心领域表现亮点与韧性并存。货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，保持"灵活高效"；人民币汇 率逆势走强，全年在多重因素支撑下稳步回升，双向波动的弹性特征愈发明显；黄金成为全球资产配置的"避风港"，国际金价屡创新高，中国人 民银行连续增持黄金…… 2025年的经济表现与政策选择，更为2026年启幕的"十五五"埋下关键伏笔：货币政策如何在"以我为主"与外部周期趋同中预留发力空间？稳汇率 面临哪些挑战？支撑黄金长期走势的核心是什么？"双循环"战略又该如何适配全球贸易格局重构？ 这些贯穿短期调控与长期布局的核心命题，既是2025年衔接期必须破解的现实难题，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口。围绕上述问题，中 银证券全球首席经济学家管涛近日接受了北京商报记者专访。 管涛认为，2026年我国货币政策仍将坚持"以我为主"，在需兼顾总量调节与结构性工具优化创新的同时，各项政策工具将持续发力，资本市场有 望迎来政策支持。防范汇率超调将是2026年宏观调控重点之一，人民币汇率延续双向波动态势 ...

（执业编号：S1010525050003） 2025年11月7日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 大类资产观察黄金价值系列 黄金市场在交易什么？ 陈炳丞 中信证券研究部 大类资产配置分析师 2 2. 金价下调的风险有哪些？ 3. 更复杂的全球货币体系 4. 金价近期大幅度波动的原因 5. 风险因素 历史回顾：1960-1970年代黄金走势 1960至1970年代重要的地缘政治事件与黄金价格变化（美元/盎司） 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 猪湾入侵 事件 古巴导弹 危机 尼克松冲击， 美元正式暂停 与黄金挂钩 第二次石 油危机 第四次中东战 争，第一次石 伦敦黄金池破 油危机 产，黄金市场 价自由浮动。 越南战争 春节攻势 沃尔克强硬加息最 终遏制通胀，经济 增长放缓 北部湾 事件 美军登 陆岘港 美军撤离越南 伊朗伊斯 兰革命 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 3 目录 CONTE ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 4030 points, marking a rise from 3000 to 4000 points within a year [2][3] - Key sectors driving this growth include innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, computing power, energy storage, and high-end manufacturing, indicating a developing market sentiment [3][4] - Economic indicators show slight improvements, with October CPI rising by 0.2% year-on-year and PPI increasing by 0.1% month-on-month, suggesting a gradual recovery in the Chinese economy [4][5] Group 2 - The dialogue with the chief economist of Bank of China highlights the challenges and uncertainties facing the Chinese economy, including insufficient domestic demand and external pressures on international trade [5][6] - The future of the RMB exchange rate against the USD is uncertain, with predictions indicating potential depreciation due to various internal and external factors [9][10][11] - The RMB's recent appreciation is characterized as passive, influenced by a weaker USD and improved market sentiment following reduced trade tensions between China and the US [14][15][16] Group 3 - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, emphasizing the importance of reform during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, which are expected to create new opportunities [6][27][41] - The capital market is anticipated to benefit from comprehensive reforms aimed at enhancing market mechanisms and improving investor experiences, which could lead to a sustained bull market [37][39] - The potential for a "reform bull market" is highlighted, with expectations that the market is still in its early stages of growth, providing opportunities for long-term investments [41][48]

Core Insights - The long-term price trend of gold is highly correlated with geopolitical and economic conditions, with upward movements typically driven by geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance [1][2] - Current risks for gold price declines are not significant, including factors such as a recovering U.S. economy, hawkish Federal Reserve policies, strong fiscal discipline, easing geopolitical tensions, and global central banks selling gold [1][8][10][12][13] - In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from the expansion of global liquidity and increased preference due to de-globalization risks [1][16] Historical Context - Since 1971, gold price trends can be divided into three phases: the 1960s-70s characterized by U.S. struggles during the Vietnam War and economic issues leading to stagflation; the 1980s-90s marked by U.S. economic growth and a decline in gold prices; and the 21st century where geopolitical and financial crises have accelerated gold's price detachment from the dollar [2] Current Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were primarily driven by U.S.-China trade relations and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price movements observed from late August to mid-October [20][23] - The stability of U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are expected to be key factors influencing gold prices in the near term, with a general upward trend anticipated [23] Long-term Outlook - Long-term factors supporting gold prices include liquidity expansion from credit monetary systems and a rising preference for gold among global central banks and investors [16] - The complex global monetary system may see gold, along with other precious metals and cryptocurrencies, playing increasingly important roles, potentially leading to long-term price increases [16]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of $4000 per ounce, driven by strong investment demand during China's National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4500, citing substantial inflows into gold ETFs and central bank purchases as key drivers [1][2] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a 17% increase since August 26, primarily fueled by Western ETF inflows and central bank buying [1][2] Group 2: Shift in Monetary Dynamics - The global financial system is undergoing a deep structural adjustment, with gold entering a "re-monetization" phase, reflecting a shift away from a dollar-dominated framework [2][21] - Analysts suggest that the international reserve system is evolving from a dollar-centric model to a more diversified structure, with gold serving as a "safe haven" and "stabilizing anchor" during this transition [2][21] Group 3: Investment Trends in Gold - The rising gold prices have reinforced its status as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, further fueling the current investment boom in gold [3] - Australian gold exploration and development companies are experiencing heightened interest, with Theta Gold Mines Limited being highlighted for its significant gold resource and ongoing project developments [25] Group 4: Regulatory Developments in Australia - The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has approved Cboe Australia to operate as a new listing platform, introducing competition to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) [4][5] - This approval is expected to enhance market flexibility, pricing efficiency, and investor coverage, contributing to the diversification of the capital market in Australia [5] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Primavera Capital is seeking potential buyers for its Australian and New Zealand vitamin manufacturing business, Vitaco, with an estimated asset value of AUD 400-500 million [6] - Felix Gold Limited is under scrutiny from ASX for compliance with continuous disclosure obligations, following a delayed announcement regarding a visit from U.S. federal officials to its Treasure Creek antimony project [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising popularity of gold as an alternative asset amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties and changing monetary policies, with gold prices reaching new highs [1][2][4]. - Gold futures prices recently surpassed $3,800 per ounce and reached $3,904 per ounce during Asian trading hours [1]. - The trend of gold being recognized as a safe haven and a major alternative asset is reinforced by the recent IPO of Zijin Gold International, which saw its stock price surge by 68.46% on its debut, achieving a market capitalization of HKD 316.5 billion [2][37]. Group 2 - The strong performance of gold stocks is evident in the Australian stock market, where gold-related companies accounted for 80% of the top 10 performers in the last fiscal year [3][17]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to complex factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a shift in the global monetary system towards diversification away from the dollar [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment indicates a "re-monetization" of gold, as it regains strategic value amid a restructuring of global trade and financial systems [5][6]. Group 3 - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, with Deutsche Bank predicting a price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026 and Goldman Sachs projecting $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [8][10]. - Theta Gold Mines Limited, a gold development company listed on the ASX, has significant gold resources and is entering a critical phase of construction, with a recent feasibility study indicating improved financial metrics [26][27]. - The updated feasibility study for Theta Gold Mines' TGME project shows a net present value (NPV) of AUD 784 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 71%, reflecting the positive impact of rising gold prices [27][31].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $3600 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in the global economic landscape, driven by factors such as declining interest rates, a weakening dollar, and increasing geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - In 2024, gold prices have shown remarkable performance, increasing by 27.2% in USD and 35.6% in EUR, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 40% as of September 9 [1][2]. - The current price of gold at $3600 per ounce may be just the beginning of a "super cycle," with predictions suggesting it could reach $4800 or even $8900 per ounce by the end of the decade [2]. Group 2: Driving Forces Behind Gold's Rise - The dual role of gold as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge is increasingly recognized, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually, reaching a record 1086 tons in 2024 [3][4]. - The global debt crisis is affecting major economies, with the U.S. government interest payments surpassing military spending for the first time, indicating a potential decline in economic stability [5]. - Persistent inflation remains a concern, with U.S. core CPI at 3.2% and PCE at 2.8%, driving investors towards gold as a hedge against rising prices [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The changing geopolitical landscape, characterized by rising tensions and trade conflicts, has made gold's neutral status more valuable, as countries diversify their reserves away from traditional fiat currencies [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy is becoming less effective, prompting a shift towards a new asset allocation model that emphasizes gold as a core component [8][9]. - A proposed new allocation includes 45% in stocks, 15% in bonds, 15% in safe-haven gold, and 10% in performance-oriented gold assets, which has shown higher returns compared to traditional models [10]. - The weakening dollar is expected to further boost gold prices, with historical data indicating that a 10% drop in the dollar index correlates with a 15% rise in gold [11].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The current gold price surge is referred to as a "re-monetization trend," marking the longest bull market since the dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, with gold prices rising from $1,046 per ounce in December 2015 to a record high of $2,685 per ounce by December 2024 [4][6] - Over the past two years, the primary buyers of gold have shifted from Western ETF retail investors to central banks and sovereign wealth funds, indicating a significant change in market dynamics and pricing mechanisms [4][6] - Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, a historic high, as they seek to diversify away from dollar reserves and mitigate risks associated with potential sanctions [7][8] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Trends - Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable price increase, soaring from $26,000 in August 2023 to over $122,000 by August 2025, representing a nearly 470% increase in market capitalization from $500 billion to $2.4 trillion [5] Group 3: Global Economic Shifts - The post-World War II dollar system is perceived to be collapsing, prompting countries to seek new anchors for their financial systems, including potential gold-backed digital currencies [6][8] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 73% in 2001 to 58% in 2024, while gold's share has increased from 9% to 20%, reflecting a significant shift in reserve asset preferences [8] Group 4: Real Estate Market Changes - The perception of real estate as a safe investment is changing, with properties transitioning from being viewed as wealth amplifiers to financial liabilities, leading to a reevaluation of their investment potential [10][11] - The belief in continuously rising property values is being challenged, as individuals now focus on cash flow and the potential for depreciation rather than solely on price appreciation [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the US dollar's reserve share does not contradict the accelerating trend of a multipolar international monetary system, despite recent discussions about "de-dollarization" and the impact of US economic policies [1][11]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Data - As of the end of Q1 this year, the US dollar accounted for 57.74% of global foreign exchange reserves, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter but an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous year's low [2]. - The dollar's reserve share has remained below 60% for ten consecutive quarters, marking its lowest level since data collection began in 1999 [11]. Group 2: Foreign Investment in US Securities - In Q1, net inflows of international capital into US securities reached $447.5 billion, significantly higher than the $43 billion net inflow in the same period last year [3]. - Official foreign investment in US Treasury securities totaled $38,356 billion by the end of Q1, with a net purchase of $138.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 114% [5]. - The total balance of official foreign investment in four major categories of US securities was $65,671 billion, with a net purchase of $91.5 billion, representing a growth of 15.8% [8]. Group 3: Trends in Other Reserve Currencies - In Q1, the euro, pound, and Swiss franc reserves increased by $58.7 billion, $61 billion, and $68.4 billion respectively, although these increases were lower than the dollar's reserve growth [9]. - The share of non-traditional reserve currencies has risen, with a cumulative increase of 1.84 percentage points from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025, surpassing the decline in the dollar's share [12]. Group 4: Gold as a Reserve Asset - The global gold reserve ratio has increased from 13.8% to 22.7% between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, indicating a significant shift towards gold as a reserve asset [13]. - By the end of Q1 this year, gold reserves accounted for 20% of global reserve assets, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [14]. Group 5: Central Bank Attitudes Towards Gold - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months, reflecting a growing preference for gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the significant rise in international gold prices, driven by a global trend of "re-monetization" and geopolitical risks associated with the dollar [2][3][4] - Gold prices have increased by 27% in 2023 and reached a record closing price of $3435 per ounce by June 13, 2024, marking a 111% increase from the low in November 2022 [2] - The acceleration in gold price increases is notable, with the price crossing the $2000 mark in December 2023, just over a year after surpassing $1000 for the first time in 2009 [2] Group 2 - The geopolitical risks highlighted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 have led to a renewed focus on gold as a reserve asset, with global gold reserves rising to 20% by 2024, surpassing levels seen in 1995 [3] - Central banks have purchased over 3000 tons of gold in the past three years, with annual purchases reaching double the average from 2017 to 2021, significantly contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies under the Trump administration, including tariffs and interventions in the Federal Reserve, has led to a decline in the dollar's credibility, further supporting gold price increases [4] Group 3 - Despite temporary relief from tariff measures in May 2024, ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to impact the dollar, resulting in a 1.9% decline in the dollar index from May to June [4] - The potential for further increases in gold prices is supported by historical precedents, with gold prices having previously surged during periods of dollar crises [4] - The trend of re-monetization does not imply a return to the gold standard but indicates a shift in asset allocation towards gold among central banks and private investors amid declining dollar credibility [4]