日本学者：日本政府财政政策加剧社会分化 一段时间以来，日本政府不断加速"再军事化"进程，大幅增加防卫预算，意图逐步突破"和平宪法"的限制。日本学者白鸟浩表示，扩张军事力量并不能提升 日本的安全感，反而可能削弱国际社会对日本的信任。 0:00 日本法政大学教授 白鸟浩：日本进行防卫力量扩张可能损害日本作为和平国家80年来走过的道路，也可能破坏东亚邻国对日本所积累的信任。从根本上来 说，日本的"无核三原则"是作为世界上唯一遭受过核武器攻击的国家向世界发出的一个重要讯息，这是关乎日本作为和平国家根基的核心原则。如果对这些 原则进行重新审视或改变，那么在国际社会看来，无疑象征着日本作为和平国家的形象正在发生重大转变。 日本法政大学教授 白鸟浩：尤其是在当前日元持续贬值的背景下，继续采取所谓积极财政政策可能会使国家财政进一步陷入危机，进而削弱外界对日本经 济的信任。如果日元持续贬值，持有股票和资产的富裕阶层自然会变得更加富有，而那些不持有股票的中低收入阶层可能将难以应对不断上涨的物价。两极 分化，社会分裂，很可能会在今后的日本社会中逐步显现。 责编：秦雅楠、侯兴川 白鸟浩教授认为，日本现任政府宣称实施的财政政策将使日本 ...

2026.02. 10 本文字数：1773，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 日本众议院选举落幕，高市早苗所在的自民党获得316个议席，日本维新会获得36个议席。在野党 方面，由立宪民主党和公明党共同组建的新党"中道改革联合"获得49个议席，国民民主党获得28个 议席，参政党获得15个议席，新兴政党"未来团队"获得11个议席，日本共产党获得4个议席。自民 党单独获得了超过三分之二议席，在战后日本尚属首次。 上海日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷对第一财经记者表示，当前自民 党内矛盾众多，群龙无首，党内大佬麻生太郎想要"垂帘听政"，在混乱的局势中，高市虽说通过选 举夺回了党内主导权，"这样的局面会让人担心，今后的自民党会变得更加咄咄逼人"。 高市的考验才刚刚开始 陈子雷说，其实纵观高市此次的竞选政策，可谓"相当粗糙，且经不起推敲"。他举例道，高市要力 推"积极的财政政策"，但在饱受日本媒体的质疑与批评之后，又改成"负责任的积极财政政策"，"是 不是负责任，并不是高市自己所能定义的，而是需要依赖日本国债等数据来决定。" 高市主张的"负责任的积极财政政策"，即通过扩大赤字、抑制加 ...

高市的考验才刚刚开始 "随着选举热度逐渐褪去，高市经济政策的弊端、她与'统一教会'的来往、自民党悬而未决的'黑金丑 闻'等问题都会被'秋后算账'。"陈子雷分析道。 日本众议院选举落幕，高市早苗所在的自民党获得316个议席，日本维新会获得36个议席。在野党方 面，由立宪民主党和公明党共同组建的新党"中道改革联合"获得49个议席，国民民主党获得28个议席， 参政党获得15个议席，新兴政党"未来团队"获得11个议席，日本共产党获得4个议席。自民党单独获得 了超过三分之二议席，在战后日本尚属首次。 上海日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷对第一财经记者表示，当前自民党 内矛盾众多，群龙无首，党内大佬麻生太郎想要"垂帘听政"，在混乱的局势中，高市虽说通过选举夺回 了党内主导权，"这样的局面会让人担心，今后的自民党会变得更加咄咄逼人"。 提高警惕 据报道，高市9日于东京举行记者会时表示："基于此前的论点梳理与讨论积累，我将坚持不懈全力推动 尽快营造出就修宪举行全民投票的环境。" 此前，高市已不断放出风声，表示将推动对"无核三原则"及"安保三文件"的修订讨论。"无核三原则"长 期以来被视为日本政府关于核 ...

Group 1 - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 316 seats in the Japanese House of Representatives, exceeding two-thirds of the total, while the Japan Innovation Party secured 36 seats, indicating a strong political mandate for the LDP [1][3] - The newly formed "Center Reform Union" by the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito only obtained 49 seats, a significant drop from 167, highlighting a shift in the political landscape [1][3] - The election process was criticized for being overly focused on personal popularity rather than substantive policy discussions, with the LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi, framing the election as a vote of confidence in herself [4][5] Group 2 - The election results are expected to provide Takaichi with a "honeymoon period" in office, but she faces long-standing issues such as stagnant wages, rising prices, and sluggish economic growth that require actionable solutions [5][6] - Takaichi's core policy of "responsible active fiscal policy" lacks a clear implementation blueprint, raising concerns about the sustainability of increased government spending without defined funding sources [6][7] - There are apprehensions regarding Takaichi's foreign policy approach, particularly her comments on Taiwan and plans to revise security documents, which may strain Japan's relations with neighboring countries [7][8]

自2025年10月21日就任日本第104任首相以来，高市早苗面 临两项挑战，隐藏着三种冲动。目前她已基本跨越第一个挑 战，剩下的挑战和冲动更加复杂和凶险。两个挑战是"政、 经"，三个冲动是"宪、核、台"。 作者：王义伟 封图：东方IC 2026年2月8日是日本首相高市早苗的高光时刻。 这一天，在日本众议院选举中，高市早苗领衔的日本自民党获得316个议席。日本众议院共有465 个议席。此次选举之前，自民党在众议院仅有198个议席。此次选举后，自民党的议席不仅大幅度 过半，甚至达到了提案修宪所需的三分之二议席，加上执政联盟日本维新会的36席，等于囊括了 众议院超四分之三的议席。 这是自民党自1955年成立以来取得的最好成绩。不出意外，高市早苗将继续担任首相，日本政坛 将再次呈现自民党一党独大的格局。 综合研判，笔者认为，自2025年10月21日就任日本第104任首相以来，高市早苗面临两项挑战， 隐藏着三种冲动。目前她已基本跨越第一个挑战，剩下的挑战和冲动更加复杂和凶险。 结果，她赌赢了。 接下来，高市早苗面临的最大挑战将是经济和民生问题。 经济方面，日本GDP增长乏力，长期在低位徘徊，政府债务规模已超过GDP的2 ...

2026年2月8日是日本首相高市早苗的高光时刻。 经济方面，日本GDP增长乏力，长期在低位徘徊，政府债务规模已超过GDP的250%，为全球最高。民生方面，日本的核心消费价格指数连续上升，实际工 资水平连续下降 ，民众抱怨情绪上升。 面对这种情况，高市早苗采取的是积极财政策略，继续举债、维持低利率、投资战略产业。预计这些措施将被经济学界概括为"高市经济学"。这种激进的经 济刺激政策是把双刃剑，可能会刺激经济的增长，但也有可能引发金融灾难、导致经济进一步萎缩。 高市早苗隐藏的第一个冲动是修改宪法，具体而言，是废除宪法中的和平条款。 现行的日本宪法由驻日盟军最高统帅麦克阿瑟主持修订，于1947年5月3日颁布施行。这部宪法最引人瞩目的条款是第九条，原文如下："1、日本国民衷心谋 求基于正义与秩序的国际和平，永远放弃以国权发动的战争、武力威胁或武力行使作为解决国际争端的手段。2、为达到前项目的，不保持陆海空军及其他 战争力量，不承认国家的交战权。" 这部宪法颁布之后不久，日本国内的保守派及民族主义分子就有修改宪法的企图。自民党成立后，也多次试图修改宪法，但均已失败告终。 这一天，在日本众议院选举中，高市早苗领衔的日本自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the recent Japanese House of Representatives election does not grant the party the freedom to act without accountability, as emphasized by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba [1][3]. Group 1: Election Results - The LDP secured 316 seats in the election, while its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, obtained 36 seats, resulting in a majority for the ruling coalition [3]. - The opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, formed a new party called the "Center Reform Union," which won 49 seats, while the Democratic Party for the People gained 28 seats [3]. Group 2: Public Trust and Policy Concerns - Ishiba noted that the election results reflect public trust in the cabinet led by Sanna Takashi, but this trust does not equate to a blank check for policy implementation [3]. - He highlighted the importance of the government's ability to deliver tangible results, indicating that the public's evaluation of these outcomes remains uncertain [3]. Group 3: Economic Policy Warnings - Ishiba warned that proposed tax cuts by Takashi could harm the economy if not properly funded, potentially leading to a depreciation of the yen and rising prices [3]. - He emphasized that even basic economic principles, such as the need for funding to support tax cuts, should be understood by policymakers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, is expected to enhance its policy implementation capabilities following significant gains in the House of Representatives elections by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy and Economic Measures - The LDP has committed to accelerating discussions on reducing the food consumption tax to zero within two years, utilizing non-deficit sources such as tax revenue [2][3]. - There are internal divisions within the LDP regarding the consumption tax, with about 20% of candidates preferring to maintain the current rate, indicating cautious sentiment amidst financial market sensitivities [3][4]. - The government plans to implement a "subsidy tax credit" system to alleviate the burden on low- and middle-income households while also pursuing social security reforms [4]. Group 2: Constitutional and Security Reforms - Prime Minister Takashi expressed intentions to amend the constitution, particularly regarding the Self-Defense Forces, following the LDP's acquisition of over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, which allows for constitutional amendment proposals [5][6]. - The government aims to enhance defense cooperation with the U.S. and other countries, addressing threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, and is considering increasing defense spending to over 2% of GDP [9]. Group 3: Legislative Process and Budget Priorities - The 2026 budget and tax reform bills are prioritized, with discussions expected in a special session in mid-February, although challenges remain due to the dissolution of the House of Representatives [6][7]. - The LDP's majority allows it to control all permanent committee chair positions, facilitating a more stable legislative process, although cooperation with opposition parties may be necessary for passing certain bills [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Russia expresses concern over Japan's official statements, which are perceived as undermining Japan's "peace constitution" and deviating from the three non-nuclear principles [1][2] Group 1: Concerns Over Japan's Military Policy - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov states that certain viewpoints from Tokyo indicate a potential overturning of Japan's "peace constitution" and a gradual departure from its long-standing non-nuclear principles [1] - Ryabkov attributes these changes to the aggressive mindset of the U.S.-led camp towards perceived strategic rivals, suggesting that reckless military policies have become a norm for these nations [1] - He argues that claims regarding changes in regional power balance affecting Japan's security are unfounded and serve as excuses for an increasingly aggressive stance [1] Group 2: Warnings Regarding Missile Deployment - Moscow warns Tokyo that the deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles will inevitably lead to Russian countermeasures [2] - Ryabkov emphasizes that strong diplomatic measures have been taken against Japan, and the deployment of certain systems, including land-based missile systems, will trigger military-technical retaliation from Russia [2] - He questions Japan's rationale for such actions, suggesting that they may believe it will enhance their security, but he believes the outcome will be counterproductive [2]

本报记者 徐可越 ●王 辉 日本第51届众议院选举将于本月8日投计票。据《日本经济新闻》2日报道，日本首相、自民党总裁高市 早苗当日明确表达修改宪法、将自卫队写入条文的意愿。由于日本宪法第九条第 2 款规定日本"不保持 陆海空军及其他战争力量，不承认国家交战权 "，高市上述修宪言论引发舆论的猛烈批评。 据报道，高市2日在新潟县上越市为众议院选举开展应援演说时表示，"为了维护他们（自卫队）的尊 严，并巩固其作为一支强大力量的存在，希望允许我们进行理所当然的宪法修改。"高市表示，为了推 进修宪讨论，执政党需要增加众议院席位数量，并赢得国会宪法审查会会长的职位。 对于高市的修宪图谋，中道改革联合（由立宪民主党和公明党组建的新党）的联合党首野田佳彦2日 称："我将坚持'无核三原则'，必须建设不再度引发战争、不被卷入战争的国家。" 隶属日本共产党的东京都北区议员山崎泰子3日发文批评称，若自民党赢得选举多数席位，将强行推进 军事大规模扩张、重新审视"无核三原则"并修改宪法。她呼吁道："是时候正视自民党的违宪政治路线 了，他们竟然容忍解禁集体自卫权的行为，我们必须采取以宪法为基础、守护和平与人权民生的政治立 场。" 中国国 ...