证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略点评 中美贸易冲突风险上升，短期将延长 A 股宽幅震荡时间 ——对近期中美贸易冲突升级的解读 核心要点： 近期中美关税冲突风险上升，特朗普宣布将对中国商品增加 100%关税 特朗普在 10 月 10 日通过社交媒体"真相社交"宣布：自 2025 年 11 月 1 日 起，对所有从中国进口的商品加征额外 100%的关税；同时实施"所有关键 美国制造软件"的出口管制。而从 4 月特朗普增加中国关税的过程来看， 特朗普敢说敢做，但是最终走向还取决于期限前是否会出现重大转机。 特朗普此次计划增加的关税将覆盖所有中国出口商品，包括：消费电子产 品（手机、电脑）、机械设备、纺织品、玩具、农产品等。若此次增加的 关税落地，美国对中国商品的关税税率多数在 140%以上。 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 我们认为，由于中美就关税问题，在 4 月以来已进行了多轮谈判，此次双 方的动作基本抹除了此前谈判成果。未来中美之间大概率会继续保持若即 若离的状态，但随着中国出口美国商品比例不断下滑，美国的谈判筹码在 持续缩减，双方之间的冲突逐步走向缓和是大概率事 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Russia aims to assist China in surpassing the United States in nuclear power capacity, with a target of over 100 GW [1][2] - Currently, the United States has the largest nuclear power network globally, with a total installed capacity of nearly 97 GW [1] - Russia has already helped China build 4 nuclear reactors, with another 4 under construction [2] Group 2 - China has ambitious nuclear energy development plans, which require significant amounts of uranium and nuclear fuel [2] - The cooperation between Russia and China in the nuclear energy sector is expected to expand in both breadth and depth over the coming decades and even centuries [2]

Core Insights - Bosnia's trade deficit continues to expand despite growth in both imports and exports during the first seven months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Trade Data - Bosnia's import value from January to July 2023 reached 18.43 billion marks, while exports totaled 10.25 billion marks, resulting in a trade deficit of 8.17 billion marks [1] - In comparison, during the same period in 2022, imports were 17.75 billion marks, exports were 9.74 billion marks, and the trade deficit was 8.01 billion marks [1] Group 2: Major Import and Export Categories - Major imports included mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (2.14 billion marks), nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery (1.63 billion marks), and vehicles and parts (1.56 billion marks) [1] - Key exports comprised electrical machinery and equipment (937.2 million marks), nuclear reactors and machinery (826.3 million marks), and furniture and bedding (697.9 million marks) [1] Group 3: Trade Partners - Main export destinations were Croatia (1.82 billion marks), Germany (1.46 billion marks), and Serbia (1.09 billion marks) [2] - Major import sources included Croatia (3.44 billion marks), Serbia (2.44 billion marks), and Slovenia (1.54 billion marks) [2] Group 4: Economic Commentary - Economist Milenko Stanic highlighted that the trade deficit has been a persistent issue, increasing from just over 7 billion marks a decade ago to over 12 billion marks in recent years, with imports accelerating [2] - The inflation rate in Bosnia for the first half of the year was reported at 4.6%, which has significantly impacted the prices of imported and exported goods [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nuclear energy stocks, particularly BWX Technologies, are gaining attention due to strong earnings and potential involvement in lunar nuclear reactor projects [1][3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - BWX Technologies reported strong Q2 earnings, significantly beating Wall Street expectations, which contributed to an 18% increase in stock price on August 5 [3][4]. - The company increased its full-year 2025 guidance for both sales and adjusted earnings per share [4]. - BWX has achieved a 62% return in 2025, highlighting its strong performance compared to other nuclear stocks [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Prospects - Sean Duffy, Acting NASA Administrator, expressed ambitions to establish a nuclear reactor on the Moon by 2030, which has sparked interest in BWX as a potential supplier [5][6]. - BWX's Government Operations segment, which focuses on nuclear propulsion systems, generated 77% of its total revenue in Q2, indicating strong ties to government contracts [7]. - Analysts have a bearish outlook on BWX, with a consensus price target of approximately $142, suggesting a potential downside of nearly 21% from its August 12 closing price [10][11]. Group 3: Long-Term Opportunities - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the potential for lunar nuclear reactors presents a long-term opportunity for BWX, as indicated by Duffy's comments on extending human presence to the Moon and Mars [12]. - BWX has an existing relationship with NASA, having previously secured an $18.8 million deal, which positions it favorably for future contracts related to lunar projects [8][9]. - The market may be undervaluing BWX's long-term prospects, as the ambitions for lunar energy could extend beyond the immediate future [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to accelerate the construction of a nuclear reactor on the Moon to support future space exploration missions, with a target to deploy a 100-kilowatt reactor by 2030 [1][3]. Group 1: Project Details - The initiative aims to establish a timeline for the lunar nuclear reactor project, with a directive for NASA to consult industry experts within 60 days and appoint a project leader [1]. - The nuclear reactor is expected to provide a reliable power source for various operations on the Moon, including habitation, life support systems, scientific experiments, and industrial activities [4][6]. Group 2: Technical Considerations - Nuclear fission technology is deemed crucial for deep space exploration, as it can deliver continuous power unaffected by lunar environmental conditions, unlike solar panels [3][4]. - Current designs for small reactors suggest that deploying a reactor on the Moon by 2030 is technically feasible if sufficient funding is allocated [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - There are significant technical challenges, including the safe transport of radioactive materials and the management of waste heat [7]. - Funding uncertainties exist, as NASA's budget has faced cuts, and there is no clear financial backing for the lunar reactor project [7]. - The reliability of private sector partners for launching the reactor remains questionable, with no U.S. company currently demonstrating the necessary capabilities [7].

新华社北京8月6日电 据多家美国媒体报道，美国交通部长兼国家航空航天局（NASA）代理局长肖恩· 达菲近日将宣布，美国将加快推进在月球上建设核反应堆的计划。这是达菲今年被任命为代理局长以来 主导的首项重大举措。 美航天局近来面临遭美国政府削减科研预算、缩减科研项目和裁员的窘境。此外，这项计划还有多种技 术难题待解，也尚不明确将依靠哪家企业发射核反应堆。美国为何计划在月球上建造核反应堆？这项计 划的实施前景如何？ 核能优势明显 为月球设计的核反应堆需要适应与地球截然不同的环境，月球上没有大气层，还存在极端温差以及长时 间的昼夜交替。 不同于可能受月球长达两周黑夜影响而无法发电的太阳能电池组，基于裂变的核反应堆能持续、可靠地 提供电力，以支持居住区、生命维持系统、科学实验，以及采矿和燃料生产等工业操作。 5月27日，美国太空探索技术公司新一代重型运载火箭"星舰"在得克萨斯州实施第九次试飞。新华社/美 联 计划2030年前实现 据媒体披露的一份达菲的指令，加快在月球表面建造反应堆的计划有助于推进美国月球探索任务。该计 划将明确为美航天局此前构想的月球核反应堆项目设定具体时间表，目标是在2030年前完成一座100千 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Transportation, led by Sean Duffy, is accelerating plans to build a nuclear reactor on the Moon, marking a significant initiative since Duffy's appointment as NASA's acting administrator [1] - NASA aims to develop a 100-kilowatt nuclear reactor by 2030, which is crucial for human missions to the Moon, following previous funding for a 40-kilowatt reactor [2] - Concerns about international competition, particularly from China and Russia, are influencing NASA's urgency in establishing a lunar nuclear reactor [2] Group 2 - NASA is also expediting the process to replace the International Space Station, aligning with the Trump administration's focus on human spaceflight despite budget cuts in other areas [2] - Several companies, including Axiom Space, Vast, and Blue Origin, are responding to the demand for new space station construction, although there are concerns from lawmakers regarding NASA's funding support for these initiatives [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, highlighting Iran's missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar as a retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1][4] - U.S. President Trump described the Iranian response as "very weak" and later stated that both sides agreed to a ceasefire, although official confirmations remain unclear [1][6] - The historical context reveals that Iran and Israel were once natural allies, sharing intelligence and military cooperation, particularly during the Pahlavi dynasty [10][12] Group 2 - The article outlines the deep-rooted historical ties between Iran and Israel, including military and agricultural collaborations, and the mutual benefits derived from their relationship [10][12][15] - It details the shift in relations post-1979 Islamic Revolution, where Iran adopted a staunch anti-Israel stance, leading to the severance of diplomatic ties and increased hostilities [38][39] - The narrative emphasizes the irony of the U.S. and Israel's current opposition to Iran's nuclear ambitions, given that the U.S. initially facilitated Iran's interest in nuclear technology during the Pahlavi era [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the main structure of Iran's Arak heavy water reactor was damaged due to an Israeli airstrike on June 19 [1] Group 1: Incident Details - The Israeli military conducted airstrikes in the Arak region of Iran, targeting military facilities [1] - Prior to the attack, the Israeli Defense Forces warned residents in the Arak and Homa Dab areas to evacuate [1] - Iran claimed that the heavy water facility in Homa Dab was not damaged during the airstrike [1] Group 2: Implications for Nuclear Facilities - The targeted areas include under-construction nuclear reactors and heavy water processing plants [1] - The incident raises concerns regarding the security and stability of Iran's nuclear infrastructure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent military actions between Israel and Iran, highlighting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile launches from Iran towards Israel, indicating escalating tensions in the region [1][3][5]. Group 1: Israeli Airstrikes - On June 19, the Israeli military conducted airstrikes in the Arak region of Iran, targeting areas with nuclear facilities, including a nuclear reactor and heavy water plant [1][3]. - The Israeli Defense Forces issued evacuation warnings to residents in the targeted areas before the strikes occurred [4]. Group 2: Iranian Response - Following the airstrikes, Iranian media reported that the area housing the Houndab nuclear facility was attacked, but claimed that the facility was not damaged [3][4]. - As of the reporting, there was no official response from the Iranian government regarding the airstrikes [8]. Group 3: Missile Launches from Iran - On the same day, the Israeli Home Front Command reported detecting over 20 missiles launched from Iran towards Israel, marking the largest scale of missile attacks from Iran in 48 hours [5]. - At least one missile reportedly landed in southern Israel, but there were no immediate reports of casualties [5][6]. Group 4: Civil Defense Measures - Widespread air raid sirens were activated across Israel in response to the missile threat, prompting the public to seek shelter [7].