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烟草行业专题报告:新型烟草继续增长,巨头加码无烟产品
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-18 12:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the tobacco industry [1] Core Insights - The global tobacco market is projected to reach $951.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%. The market segments include combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion, new tobacco products at $870 billion, and others [11][19] - New tobacco products, particularly heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes, are experiencing significant growth, with heated tobacco expected to grow by 13.1% year-on-year [11][19] - Major players like Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco are increasing their focus on smoke-free products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics towards reduced harm alternatives [1][66] Summary by Sections Global Tobacco Market - The global tobacco market is expected to grow to $951.4 billion in 2024, with combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion and new tobacco products at $870 billion, reflecting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.9%, and 13.1% respectively [11][19] - The market is dominated by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, and North America, with China, the USA, and Indonesia being the top three consumers [14][19] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's revenue is projected to be $378.78 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year organic growth of 9.8%. The revenue split is 61% from combustible products and 38% from smoke-free products [46][49] - The IQOS brand continues to grow, with user numbers reaching 32.2 million in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [55][59] - The company is actively expanding its smoke-free product offerings, aiming for smoke-free products to account for over two-thirds of its revenue by 2030 [65] British American Tobacco - British American Tobacco's revenue is expected to be £25.867 billion in 2024, with a slight organic growth of 1.3%. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in combustible tobacco but growth in new tobacco products [66][69] - The company is diversifying its product range, focusing on electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco, with new product launches expected to drive future growth [66][69] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is linked to British American Tobacco's new HNB product, and the OEM for Philip Morris International's IQOS, Yingqu Technology [1]