The Zacks Tobacco industry is navigating a complex operating environment marked by persistent pressure on cigarette volumes, caused by inflationary stress, evolving consumer preferences and stringent regulatory frameworks. Rising health awareness and tighter restrictions on tobacco sales and marketing are accelerating the decline in traditional cigarette consumption. At the same time, elevated input costs, including tobacco leaf, energy and labor, along with increased investments in next-generation products ...

英美烟草 2025 年业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (美元)： | 60.55 | 本报告导读： 新型烟草稳步推进，26 年指引双位数增长 英美烟草(BTI.N) 新型烟草业务产品、渠道齐头并进，2026 年指引双位数高质量增长。 投资要点： 风险提示：美国执法力度不及预期、新产品市场推广不及预期等。 | 财务摘要(百万英镑) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 25867 | ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) reported full-year 2025 revenue of $40.6 billion, with smoke-free products contributing approximately $17 billion, while British American Tobacco (BTI) reported Q4 2025 EPS of $2.55, exceeding estimates, and raised its 2026 quarterly dividend to $0.835 from $0.749 [1] - PM's IQOS maintained a 76% global market share in heated tobacco, and ZYN saw a 37% growth in shipments in the U.S. with 794 million cans shipped [1] - PM trades at a trailing P/E of 23x, reflecting consistent earnings and growth in smoke-free products, while BTI trades at 13x, offering a higher yield but with a more volatile earnings history [1] Financial Performance - PM's adjusted operating income margin expanded to 40.4%, with management guiding for adjusted diluted EPS of $8.38 to $8.53 in 2026, indicating an expected growth of 11% to 13% [1] - BTI's Q4 2025 EPS of $2.55 beat the estimate of $2.51, but its smoke-free brands are growing at a slower pace compared to PM [1] - PM's revenue growth is driven by its smoke-free segment, while BTI's earnings history shows inconsistencies, including a -$0.66 EPS in Q4 2024 and a significant miss in Q2 2025 [1] Investment Considerations - PM is positioned as a growth stock with a focus on smoke-free transformation, appealing to investors seeking capital appreciation alongside dividend growth [1] - BTI offers a higher dividend yield of 5.64% compared to PM's 3.26%, making it attractive for income-focused investors despite its lower growth narrative [1] - The valuation gap between PM and BTI reflects differing investment profiles, with PM commanding a premium due to its consistent earnings performance and growth potential [1]

Summary of British American Tobacco (BAT) 2026 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: British American Tobacco (NYSE: BTI) - **Event**: 2026 Conference Call held on February 18, 2026 - **Key Speakers**: Tadeu Marroco (CEO), David Waterfield (President of Reynolds American) Core Industry Insights - **Transformation Goal**: BAT aims to become predominantly smokeless by 2035, focusing on a smoke-free future while maintaining organic growth and shareholder returns [2][3] - **Market Growth**: The nicotine industry is projected to grow at a 4% CAGR over the next five years, driven by double-digit growth in new categories like nicotine pouches, which are expected to nearly triple in revenue by 2030 [3][4] - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a significant shift as smokers transition to less risky alternatives, with polyuse (using multiple nicotine products) doubling over the last five years [4][5] Financial Performance - **Cash Flow**: BAT has generated strong free cash flow, allowing for substantial shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [1] - **Revenue Growth Targets**: BAT aims for 3%-5% revenue growth, 4%-6% adjusted profit from operations growth, and 5%-8% adjusted diluted EPS growth in the midterm [25] Product Categories - **Nicotine Pouches**: Fastest-growing category, with VELO being a leading brand. VELO's consumer numbers, volume, and revenue have tripled over the last three years [9][11] - **Vapor Products**: Vuse is the global leader with a 39% market share, and the category is expected to grow significantly as regulatory environments improve [13][14] - **Heated Products**: The glo product line is positioned in a growing market, with a focus on premium segments [15][16] Regulatory Environment - **Regulatory Progress**: There are now 24 countries with regulatory frameworks for nicotine pouches, up from 4 in 2022. The FDA has initiated a pilot program to expedite the approval process for nicotine pouches [12][38] - **Enforcement Actions**: Increased enforcement against illegal products is crucial for the vapor market, with significant progress noted in 2025 [37][38] U.S. Market Focus - **U.S. Strategy**: The U.S. is a cornerstone of BAT's strategy, with Reynolds American positioned to capitalize on the evolving market. The U.S. nicotine revenue pool is projected to grow above a 4% CAGR through 2030 [26][28] - **Investment Commitment**: BAT is committing GBP 2.5 billion by 2030 to support U.S. growth, which is expected to create over 2,000 jobs [30][31] Competitive Positioning - **Market Leadership**: Reynolds is the number one choice for adult nicotine consumers, with nearly 22 million users. The company has seen growth in all product categories, particularly in smokeless and new categories [32][33] - **Value Share Growth**: Reynolds has increased its total nicotine volume share by over 100 basis points from December 2024 to December 2025, with significant contributions from smokeless categories [33][34] Conclusion - **Sustainable Value Creation**: BAT is focused on delivering sustainable value while preparing for future growth through a balanced portfolio of combustibles and new categories [42][43] - **Future Outlook**: The company is well-positioned to lead in the U.S. nicotine market, leveraging its multi-category portfolio and commitment to innovation and regulatory engagement [43][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new tobacco industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - British American Tobacco achieved total revenue of £25.61 billion in FY2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% (an increase of 2.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates). Revenue from new tobacco products reached £3.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% (7.0% at constant exchange rates), accounting for 14.1% of total revenue, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. In H2 2025, revenue from new tobacco products was £1.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with a revenue share of 14.5% [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Traditional Tobacco Trends - The decline in traditional tobacco is evident, with a forecasted global cigarette volume decline of approximately 2% in 2026. New tobacco products are expected to be the core growth engine, with projected low double-digit growth in revenue for 2026 [6] Product Categories - **Heated Not Burned (HNB)**: Revenue for HNB products decreased by 0.7% year-on-year (an increase of 1.0% at constant exchange rates). The decline in cigarette sales was 3.7% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified market competition and resource allocation issues related to the early launch of Glo Hilo. Glo's global market share decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 14.9% [6] - **Oral Tobacco**: The modern oral tobacco segment saw a revenue increase of 47.4% year-on-year (48.0% at constant exchange rates). The market share for all oral products and new oral tobacco increased by 5.8 and 7.5 percentage points to 17.1% and 33.4%, respectively [6] - **Vaping Products**: Revenue from vaping products decreased by 10.4% year-on-year (8.6% at constant exchange rates). The decline in sales was 12.6% year-on-year, mainly due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as regulatory changes in some European countries. Vuse maintained its global leadership with a market share increase of 0.6 percentage points to 38.8% [6] Investment Perspective - With the acceleration of the global new tobacco process, companies with core barriers or resource positioning in the industry present investment opportunities. Key focuses include four major international tobacco companies and two product categories (HNB and oral tobacco). Specific investment targets include Smoore International for HNB and vaping, and China National Tobacco for long-term positioning [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 2.1%, adjusted profit rose by 3.4%, adjusted profit from operations grew by 2.3%, and adjusted diluted EPS was up by 3.4% [8][17] - The company delivered results at the top end of guidance, supported by accelerated momentum through the second half of the year [6][8] - Adjusted operating profit grew by nearly 10%, driven by operating leverage and efficiency gains in combustibles [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New categories revenue grew by 7%, driven by outstanding growth in Modern Oral, which was up strongly by 48%, while Heated Products increased by 1% [8][10] - Combustibles revenue grew by 1%, with volume decline more than offset by a robust price mix across markets [9][10] - Vapor revenue declined by nearly 9%, mainly due to continued illicit pressures in the U.S. and Canada [8][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., combustibles revenue increased by 4.6%, with a value share increase of 30 basis points [10][11] - New category revenue in the U.S. grew nearly 20%, driven by the success of VELO+, which delivered over 300% growth [10][11] - In AME, revenue grew over 3%, with combustibles up more than 2%, supported by strong delivery in Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a predominantly smokeless business by 2035, focusing on premium innovation and quality growth [20][21] - The Fit to Win program is expected to deliver GBP 600 million of annualized incremental savings by 2028, with a focus on optimizing processes and improving execution [15][16] - The company is committed to reinvesting savings to support further sustainable growth initiatives [15][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in returning to the Midterm Algorithm in 2026, with expectations of 3%-5% revenue growth and 4%-6% adjusted profit from operations growth [18][19] - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in Modern Oral and the performance of VELO+ in the U.S. market [22][23] - Management acknowledged challenges in the APMEA region but expects stabilization in performance as regulatory headwinds lessen [13][14] Other Important Information - The company announced an increase in share buyback to GBP 1.3 billion for 2026 and a 2% increase in dividends [3][17] - The company has delivered GBP 1.2 billion in productivity savings since 2023, helping to offset inflationary pressures [15][14] - The company remains on track to generate more than GBP 50 billion in free cash flow by the end of 2030 [18][33] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Expectations for Modern Oral performance in the U.S. for fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the strong retention rate of VELO+ and increasing average daily consumption indicate continued growth potential in the U.S. market [39][40] Question: Factors that could improve performance guidance for 2026 - Management highlighted the potential for improved enforcement in the vapor category and the expected growth in new categories as key factors for better performance [46][49] Question: Insights on heated tobacco share progression in 2026 - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape but expressed confidence in the revamped product offerings, including glo HYLO, to strengthen market position [47][48]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 2.1%, adjusted profit rose by 3.4%, adjusted profit from operations grew by 2.3%, and adjusted diluted EPS was up by 3.4% [8][17] - The company delivered results at the top end of guidance, supported by accelerated momentum through the second half of the year [8][18] - Adjusted profit was impacted by nearly GBP 1.6 billion in amortization related to U.S.-acquired trademarks and a net credit of GBP 524 million from the Canadian combustible industry outlook [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New categories revenue grew by 7%, driven by Modern Oral, which was up by 48%, while Heated Products increased by 1% [8][10] - Vapor revenue declined by nearly 9%, primarily due to illicit pressures in the U.S. and Canada [8][10] - Combustible revenue grew by 1%, with volume decline offset by robust price mix across markets [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., combustibles revenue increased by 4.6%, with a value share increase of 30 basis points [10][11] - New category revenue in the U.S. grew nearly 20%, driven by VELO+, which delivered over 300% growth [10][11] - In AME, revenue grew over 3%, with combustibles up more than 2%, supported by strong delivery in Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a predominantly smokeless business by 2035, focusing on premium innovation and quality growth [20][21] - The Fit to Win program is expected to deliver GBP 600 million of annualized incremental savings by 2028, with GBP 500 million expected by 2027 [15][16] - The company is committed to reinvesting savings to support further sustainable growth initiatives [15][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in returning to the Midterm Algorithm in 2026, with expectations of 3%-5% revenue growth and 4%-6% adjusted profit from operations growth [18][19] - The company anticipates stabilization in performance in APMEA and continued investment in premium innovations [19][54] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory improvements and enforcement in the vapor category, which is expected to support future growth [31][32] Other Important Information - The company announced a 2% increase in its dividend and a share buyback increase to GBP 1.3 billion for 2026 [17][18] - The operating margin remained broadly flat at 44%, successfully offsetting inflationary and FX pressures [14][15] - The company has a strong cash generation capability, aiming to deliver more than GBP 50 billion in free cash flow by 2030 [33][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for Modern Oral performance in the U.S. for fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the strong retention rate of 70% for VELO+ indicates competitive potential for continued growth in the U.S. market [39][40] Question: Factors that could improve performance in 2026 - Management highlighted the expectation of less drag from Australia and continued investment in premium innovations as key factors for improved performance [45][52] Question: Which category offers the most growth potential - Management expressed that Modern Oral is the most exciting category due to its rapid growth and potential in emerging markets [58][59] Question: Concerns regarding the Australian market - Management acknowledged the challenges in Australia due to increasing illicit market share but noted that the drag will lessen over time [63][64]

Building a Smokeless World Tadeu Marroco – Chief Executive | Javed Iqbal – Interim Chief Financial Officer This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any BAT shares or other securities. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements, including "forward-looking" statements made within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use ...

Core Thesis - British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is viewed positively due to its strong dividend yield, cash flow generation, and growth in new product categories, making it a reliable investment option [1][3][6] Financial Performance - As of January 13th, BTI's share price was $56.62, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 29.85 and 11.40 respectively [1] - The company has delivered over 60% total return since the initial investment, indicating strong performance [3] - Operating cash flow conversion is expected to exceed 95%, showcasing the company's ability to generate substantial free cash for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction [5] Business Segments - The traditional combustibles business in the U.S. is stabilizing, showing revenue and profit growth for the first time since 2022 [4] - New product categories, such as Velo, are experiencing rapid expansion with triple-digit revenue growth and are on track for full-year profitability [4] - The U.S. vaping segment, Vuse, has returned to growth, further supporting revenue recovery [4] Capital Management - Management has increased the share buyback program to £1.3 billion for 2026 and aims to reduce net debt to EBITDA to a target range of 2.0–2.5x, providing flexibility for capital returns to shareholders [5][6] - The company reaffirms mid-term guidance with steady revenue and profit growth, alongside continued dividend progression [6] Investment Outlook - British American Tobacco is positioned to deliver shareholder value through resilient cash generation and diversified growth drivers, while expanding future dividend capacity [7] - The stock has appreciated approximately 35.35% since a previous bullish thesis, driven by new product categories and stabilization in U.S. combustibles [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (06969) is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report highlights the gradual improvement in electronic cigarette regulations, emphasizing the bottom value of Smoore International as a compliant market leader poised to benefit from the changing supply landscape [2][3] - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for Smoore International, projecting revenues of HK$141.32 billion, HK$163.76 billion, and HK$195.88 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +19.78%, +15.88%, and +19.62% [11] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory developments include a comprehensive crackdown on illegal electronic cigarette activities, with the government emphasizing the need for stricter oversight and compliance in production and sales [2] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has initiated measures to curb excessive competition and prevent overcapacity in the electronic cigarette industry [2] Market Performance - British American Tobacco's Hilo brand is expected to see positive growth, with new product launches in various countries contributing to revenue increases [3] - The report notes a recovery in the vaping segment, with improved sales for the Vuse brand in the U.S. due to enforcement actions against illegal products [4] Financial Highlights - Smoore International executed significant share buybacks totaling approximately HK$1.99 billion, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth prospects [5] - The forecasted net profit for Smoore International is projected to be HK$9.13 billion, HK$18.46 billion, and HK$26.75 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with respective growth rates of -29.94%, +102.23%, and +44.87% [11]