日本宽财政预期

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海外高频 | 市场消化年内三次降息预期,贵金属价格持续上涨(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-09-18 04:03
Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for increased fiscal stimulus in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential shift towards more expansive fiscal policies [68] - If the popular candidate, Sanae Takaichi, assumes office, it may lead to further fiscal expansion, impacting long-term interest rates [68] Group 3 - The article notes that the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on global imports stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China [72] - The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to expedite the review of tariffs, which may affect the current tariff structure [72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term segment, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the same period last year [75] - Total expenditures for the year have increased to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion last year, while total tax revenue has risen to $3.44 trillion from $3.14 trillion [75]