穆迪评级的一位分析师表示，美国总统特朗普拟议中的2027年国防开支增加不太可能被储蓄或收入抵 消，而且会对已经庞大的美国财政赤字产生负面影响。 特朗普当地时间周三表示，2027年美国军事预算应该达到1.5万亿美元，远远高于国会批准的2026年 9010亿美元的预算。任何此类军事预算的增加都需要国会的授权。负责任联邦委员会 无党派智库负责任联邦预算委员会（Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget）估计，到2035年，该 提案将耗资5万亿美元，同时使美国的债务（含利息）增加5.8万亿美元。 无党派智库负责任联邦预算委员会（Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget）估计，到2035年，该 提案将耗资5万亿美元，同时使美国的债务（含利息）增加5.8万亿美元。 穆迪主权风险部门高级副总裁大卫·罗戈维奇（David Rogovic）在一份声明中表示："鉴于在寻找相应的 储蓄或收入来源方面存在政治和政策上的困难，特朗普总统提议的国防开支大幅增加50%的幅度，不太 可能在其他方面得到抵消。" 他补充说，大规模且持续地通过举债来增加支出，将 ...

在高波动的背景下，上海证券报记者1月5日在某期货交易平台贵金属社群中发现，投资者对于接下来黄 金、白银的走势判断已产生分歧。 "加满！今晚再涨2%。""趋势末端，疲态尽显。"市场预期分化或来自提保压力和商品指数年度调参等 因素。 伦敦现货黄金走势图 ◎记者 张骄 1月5日，伦敦现货黄金大涨超2%，重返4400美元/盎司上方；伦敦现货白银涨近5%，盘中收复76美元/ 盎司关口。国内商品期货市场贵金属板块同样大涨，沪金主力合约、沪银主力合约涨逾1%。受访人士 表示，2026年美国财政赤字扩张预期及地缘政治因素，是推动金银价格开年走强的两大要素。但对于后 市如何演绎，市场仍存在分歧。 1月2日，现货金银价格小幅回升，直至5日迎来爆发式上涨。这或与近期海外地缘冲突升级带来的避险 情绪有关。"地缘政治紧张确实会推动金银价格上涨。"北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究员许亚鑫表示， 若接下来海外地缘冲突没有进一步升级，那么对金价的影响有限。而且，由避险情绪带来的行情，往往 会随着市场情绪消退而出现"过山车"式波动。 在许亚鑫看来，2025年以来的贵金属"牛市"，其底层逻辑不完全是地缘政治因素，还与全球央行"去美 元化"、美联储处 ...

美元指数在2025年下跌约9%，将创下八年来最差年度表现。驱动美元走弱的主要因素包括：美联储的 降息预期、与其他主要货币的利差收窄，以及对美国财政赤字和政治不确定性的担忧。国际清算银行数 据显示，10月美元的实际有效汇率指数为108.7，虽较1月创下的115.1的纪录高位有所下降，但仍处高 位，表明美元估值依然偏高。市场普遍预期，2026年美元将继续走弱，核心逻辑在于全球增长可能趋于 一致，美国的经济增长优势预计将收窄，而德国财政刺激、欧元区经济改善等因素可能降低美元的吸引 力。货币政策分化是另一大压力来源，市场预计美联储在新任主席上任后可能采取更偏鸽派的立场，并 继续降息，而欧洲央行等主要央行可能维持利率不变甚至存在加息可能。投资者警告，尽管长期趋势看 跌，但美元仍可能因人工智能热潮带来的股市资金流入等因素，在短期内出现反弹。任何对美国经济增 长的重大打击，都可能成为拖累美元的额外因素。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury reported a $284 billion budget deficit for the first month of the new fiscal year, indicating a concerning trend in fiscal management [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Analysis - The reported deficit translates to over $90 billion in new debt added daily, raising questions about fiscal responsibility [1] - The deficit is 29% lower than the same period last year, but this reduction is attributed to forced spending cuts due to Congress not passing budget bills, rather than effective cost management [2] Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - Revenue increased by 22%, primarily due to higher tariffs, with the Treasury Secretary estimating $500 billion in tariff revenue for the year, covering nearly half of military spending [4] - However, tariffs ultimately burden consumers, as they lead to higher prices for imported goods, and the legality of these tariffs is under review by the Supreme Court [4] Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - The goal to reduce the deficit from 6.4% to 3% of GDP appears ambitious, given the rising fixed costs associated with social welfare, healthcare, and interest on national debt [5] - Interest payments on national debt are now higher than military spending, creating a vicious cycle that complicates deficit reduction efforts [5] Group 4: Economic Growth and Policy Implications - The current fiscal issues reflect deeper challenges in the U.S. economic growth model, which has relied on borrowing for consumption, a strategy that is becoming increasingly unsustainable [8] - Proposed ideas, such as distributing tariff revenue as dividends to citizens, may ultimately lead to higher prices and further complicate the economic landscape [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend suggests that the deficit may rebound in the coming months, with potential government shutdowns and critical legal outcomes regarding tariffs influencing market stability [11] - The current fiscal policies may be politically motivated, posing risks that could lead to broader economic consequences if not managed properly [13]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $4043.95 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.51% [1] - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, there has been a significant shift in the international economic landscape, leading to a surge in central banks' gold reserves [2] - The average gold reserve ratio for global central banks is approximately 20%, while China's is only 8%, indicating a potential increase in gold purchases by central banks aiming for a target of 30% [2] Group 2 - Gold ETF holdings have seen a remarkable increase of 17% this year, reflecting a shift in investor strategies towards hard assets amid high inflation [2][3] - The continuous rise in gold ETF holdings demonstrates strong market interest from both institutional and retail investors in gold as a valuable investment [3] - By 2026, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a rate-cutting cycle, which could further support gold prices due to low interest rates and a weak dollar [3] Group 3 - The current technical analysis of gold indicates a weak trend, with moving averages pointing downwards and a potential strategy of shorting before a rebound [4] - Key support levels are identified around $4025, with resistance levels between $4050 and $4100, suggesting a cautious trading approach [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor the strength of the European session to inform trading decisions in the U.S. session [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent optimism among U.S. Treasury traders regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to expectations that U.S. Treasuries may achieve their best annual performance since 2020 [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual return since 2020 [5]. - In 2023, the index's return was 5.5%, with a stagnation expected in 2024, contrasting with previous years where short-term U.S. Treasuries were preferred for risk diversification [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting saw a division among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others opposed any cuts [7]. - Despite a weak employment trend, the likelihood of a rate cut in December remains high, suggesting that long-term interest rates may not sustain upward momentum [7]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government's budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, unchanged from 2024, which could exert pressure on the bond market [9]. - The futures market indicates a 46% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, down from 67% a week prior, highlighting uncertainty around future monetary policy [9]. Group 4: Corporate Bond Market Risks - Analysts express concerns that the rising U.S. credit market may mask risks associated with historically high valuations of corporate bonds, leading to insufficient risk premiums for investors [10]. - The spread between investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries narrowed to 0.72 percentage points in September, the lowest since the late 1990s, indicating potential over-speculation in the market [10].

Core Insights - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2020 [1][2] - Optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to positive market expectations for U.S. Treasuries [1][2] - Despite the positive outlook, analysts warn of potential threats to the current bond rally, including uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cuts and the impact of government data releases [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, has shown a return of 6.7% this year, significantly outperforming short-term U.S. Treasuries [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently closed at 4.147%, down nearly 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a decline in yields amid investor concerns about fiscal prospects [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, although there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding the direction of monetary policy [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, with current employment and inflation trends showing no significant changes [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are currently optimistic about locking in higher yields from U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, despite the yields being higher than most of the past decade [3] - Concerns persist regarding the U.S. government's budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, which could pressure the bond market [4] - The spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to 0.72 percentage points, the lowest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and risk in the corporate bond market [5]

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking the fastest accumulation of debt outside the COVID-19 pandemic period [2][3] - The U.S. national debt is projected to reach $34 trillion by January 2024, $35 trillion by July 2024, $36 trillion by November 2024, and $37 trillion by August 2025 [3] - The rapid increase in national debt raises urgent questions about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal health and current federal policies [3] Group 2 - The government shutdown has led to delayed economic activities and fiscal decisions, further accelerating the growth of the national debt [3] - The interest costs associated with the national debt are now the fastest-growing part of the budget, with projections indicating $14 trillion in interest payments over the next decade [4] - The Trump administration claims to have reduced the deficit by $350 billion compared to the same period in 2024 through spending cuts and increased revenue [4] Group 3 - The rapid accumulation of national debt poses risks to the American public, including rising borrowing costs, reduced corporate investment, declining wages, and increased prices for goods and services [5] - The increasing debt burden may lead to heightened inflation, eroding the purchasing power of Americans over time [5] - Credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to the inability of successive governments to reverse the trend of large annual deficits and rising interest costs [5]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence between the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the outlook for the U.S. budget deficit, with the Treasury projecting a decrease while the IMF warns of an expanding deficit [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury's Perspective - The U.S. Treasury estimates that the budget deficit for FY 2025 will be approximately $1.8 trillion, a reduction of about $41 billion from the previous fiscal year, marking the first annual decline in deficit since the expiration of pandemic relief programs in 2022 [1]. - Treasury Secretary's economic advisor, Joe Lavorgna, attributes the improvement in fiscal conditions to increased revenue from tariffs and a significant slowdown in spending growth [1]. - From April to September, the cumulative deficit was $468 billion, the lowest level since 2019, and nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [2]. Group 2: IMF's Perspective - The IMF argues that current tariff measures are insufficient to meaningfully reduce debt and calls for more actions to address the persistently high deficit [1][3]. - The IMF's World Economic Outlook report predicts that despite later spending cuts and tariff revenues, the U.S. fiscal deficit will further widen compared to previous forecasts [3]. - The IMF warns that under current fiscal policies, U.S. public debt is expected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, which is 15 percentage points higher than earlier predictions [3]. Group 3: Government Spending Trends - Government spending growth has slowed, with a mere 0.2% increase in Q2 and a 2.5% decrease in Q3 compared to the previous year [2]. - The Treasury emphasizes that the large tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are expected to generate $300 billion in revenue this year, potentially rising to $400 billion next year [2]. Group 4: Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months, marking one of the fastest debt growth periods outside of the pandemic [3][4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt have reached approximately $1 trillion annually, becoming the fastest-growing item in the federal budget, with projections indicating a rise to $14 trillion over the next decade [4]. Group 5: Structural Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown exacerbates fiscal challenges, with previous shutdowns leading to significant increases in federal spending [4]. - The Treasury warns that the U.S. is on an "unsustainable fiscal path," with current policies deemed unsustainable compared to past economic crises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has transformed them from safe-haven assets to risk assets, causing significant distress among investors [2][4]. Price Movements - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell over 6%, dropping below $4,100 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years [2]. - International spot silver prices experienced a decline of over 8%, falling below $48 per ounce, which is the largest single-day drop since 2021 [2]. - Domestic gold retailers adjusted their prices, with notable decreases: - Yayi Gold's price dropped by 83 yuan to 1,211 yuan per gram - Lao Miao Gold decreased by 61 yuan to 1,229 yuan per gram - Other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook saw a reduction of 57 yuan to 1,235 yuan per gram [2]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Various institutions have differing views on the future of gold prices: - Citibank has shifted to a bearish outlook, setting a short-term target price of $4,000 per ounce, anticipating a period of consolidation in the coming weeks [6]. - Bridgewater's Hudson Attar suggests that the likelihood of gold prices declining is greater than the potential for further increases [6]. - Tim Waterer believes that as long as the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data does not show unexpected increases, there is still upward potential for gold [6]. - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5,000 [6].