接下来，面对特朗普这一系列乱象，我们应当如何应对呢？有两个办法。第一，绝不能让特朗普轻易地成功锚定大宗商品。委内瑞拉虽然政权更替，但美国 在该国石油交易的掌控仍未完全实现。没有中国的建设能力，委内瑞拉的石油产能根本无法兑现。而在乌克兰战场上顺风顺水的俄罗斯，显然不可能如特朗 普所愿主动向美国让渡石油定价权。而伊朗虽然局势复杂，但只要哈梅内伊政权不发生类似叙利亚或委内瑞拉式的崩溃，其足够强大的抗压能力就能让特朗 普头疼不已。中国顶住外部压力，维持与这些国家的正常经济合作，其实就是在捍卫全球石油定价权不被特朗普窃取。第二，中国应当加强人民币在全球大 宗商品交易中的定价权。过去几年，尤其是在特朗普上任后，这一工作进展加快了。中国央行大量购入黄金，要求澳大利亚的矿业巨头用人民币结算，所有 这些举措都让中国在对冲美元定价权方面拥有了更多筹码。 最后，我们还需要做好应急预案，提前建立双边货币互换网络，以及去美国化的金融和支付体 系，确保当特朗普真开始"开闸放水"时，中国能够通过切断部分全球金融网络，将美国"割离"出去，最大限度地减缓美元贬值对全球金融市场的冲击。 当 然，不论我们准备得多么周密，震荡依旧不可避免。对于特朗 ...

美国国会预算办公室(CBO)最新预测显示，未来十年美国财政赤字将持续扩大，与此同时利息支出快速 攀升，并在政府总支出中占据越来越大的比重。这一趋势不仅加重财政负担，也正在推高本应更低的市 场利率环境。 根据CBO周三发布的报告，到2036年，美国年度财政赤字预计将升至3.1万亿美元，占国内生产总值 (GDP)的6.7%；而在截至2026年9月30日的财年内，赤字规模约为1.9万亿美元，占GDP的5.8%。当政府 支出持续超过税收收入时，财政部必须通过发行国债、国库券和票据向公众融资，债务供给增加往往需 要更高收益率来吸引投资者，具体影响取决于期限结构的配置。 智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥资产管理机构Zacks Investment Management高级客户组合经理Brian Mulberry 指出，债券市场一直在"持续表达对财政前景的担忧"，其中最核心的问题在于赤字规模呈现出近似指数 级扩大的趋势。他认为，正是这种担忧，令当前利率水平高于在财政状况更可控情况下应有的位置。 目前，10年期收益率之所以相对受控，部分原因在于美国财政部 近年更多依赖短期国库券来管理融资 成本。但CBO指出，随着时间推移，净利息支 ...

此外，以历史标准衡量，美国政府的支出规模相当庞大，且在不断增长。2026年，支出总额占GDP的 23.3%，同样超过近50年来的平均水平。 美国国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔称，这种持续的巨额赤字在历史上"极不寻常"。分析指出， 净利息成本上升是赤字增长的主要原因。 该机构还预测，从2026年到2036年，不断增长的赤字将导致债务增加。公众持有的联邦债务占GDP的比 重将从今年的101%上升到2036年的120%，超过1946年二战后创下的106%的历史最高纪录。 中新网2月12日电 美国国会预算办公室当地时间11日发布预测，美国2026财年预算赤字将为约1.9万亿美 元，到2036年将增至3.1万亿美元，二者占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的比重将分别达到5.8%与6.7%，均 高于过去50年赤字占比重3.8%的平均水平。 路透社指出，该比例远高于美国财政部长贝森特此前提出的，将财政赤字削减至GDP的3%的目标。这 表明在经济增长低迷的情况下，美政府的经济政策正令美国财政状况恶化。 "美国的财政状况日益恶化。"华盛顿智库"两党政策中心"经济政策主任乔纳森·伯克斯表示，"我们的债 务规模如今已相当于GDP的1 ...

如果说联邦与地方的对峙算是外部冲突，那么两党之间的内耗则是美国政治现状的内伤。就在1月底，美国联邦政府又一次陷入了技术性停摆。这次停摆的 原因很简单：众议院的休会导致拨款法案未能及时表决，政府的钱袋子没了，许多非必要部门的雇员被迫停薪休假，政府的服务几乎陷入瘫痪。 这种事情如果发生在十年前，绝对会成为头条新闻，引发全国震动。然而，如今的美国人却对此早已见怪不怪。过去的两个月里，这已经是第二次停摆了。 更为棘手的是，这次停摆虽然在2月初结束，但核心问题并没有得到解决。国土安全部的资金只能勉强撑过两周，围绕移民执法的争议依然悬而未决，下一 轮的政治僵局随时可能再次爆发。 塔克·卡尔森最近说了一句话，迅速引发了美国舆论圈的广泛关注。这位一直被认为是特朗普核心支持者的右翼媒体人，竟然不再提那句曾喊了多年的让美 国再次伟大，而是换上了一个令人不寒而栗的词——解体。他直言不讳地指出：这不是未来的威胁，而是正在发生的事实。这番话让人心头一震，似乎暗示 着美国的困境比我们想象的要深刻得多。 提到解体这个词，很多人脑海中可能会浮现出地图变色、领土分裂的画面，但卡尔森所指的却远非如此简单。他讲的，是一种更隐蔽、更致命的崩溃——联 ...

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三再次警告称，美国正走在一条不可持续的财政道路上，并将未来十 年的赤字预测上调了1.4万亿美元，部分原因是总统特朗普2025年的税法以及移民政策。 CBO在一份报告中表示，特朗普去年7月推出的标志性财政方案——该方案延长了他2017年的减税措 施，并实施了一系列新的税收优惠，预计将在未来10年内使赤字增加4.7万亿美元。此外，政府的移民 执法行动预计将增加5000亿美元的成本。 报告还指出，这些损失预计将超过特朗普大幅提高进口关税所带来的收入。根据媒体估算，这些关税已 将平均有效关税税率提高到13%以上，为至少自20世纪40年代以来的最高水平。CBO预计，关税带来的 额外收入将在未来减少3万亿美元的赤字。 与此同时，净利息支出也预计将推动赤字进一步扩大。由于债务规模庞大以及平均利率上升，利息支出 将从2026年的1万亿美元激增至2036年的2.1万亿美元。 如果CBO的预测成真，将打击美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）将赤字在特朗普任期结束前降至约 占美国国内生产总值（GDP）3%的目标。CBO将2026年的赤字预测从特朗普就任前预计的5.5%上调至 5.8%，并预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced a historic surge, with COMEX gold prices breaking through $5600 per ounce, reaching $5626.8, and London gold nearing $5600, marking a significant increase in a short period [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 26, COMEX gold first broke the $5000 mark, then reached $5100, and on January 28, it surged past $5200, $5300, and $5400, achieving a record of breaking seven hundred-dollar thresholds in just four trading days [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also hit historical highs, with notable increases; for instance, Lao Miao gold reached 1722 yuan per gram, up 104 yuan in a single day [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Multiple authoritative institutions have expressed optimism about the long-term upward trend of gold prices, citing factors such as the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Standard Chartered Bank noted that the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its long-term price increase [2]. - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the demand for gold as a safe haven due to economic and policy uncertainties, along with increased purchases by central banks, significantly influences gold pricing [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Davos Forum, intended as a platform for global elites to discuss development strategies, has been transformed by Trump's rhetoric into a "financial threat conference," where he warned of retaliation against those who sell U.S. debt or stocks due to Greenland issues [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Market Dynamics - China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have decreased to $683 billion, down from a historical peak of $1.3 trillion, indicating a reduction of over $600 billion [1][11]. - The recent announcements from Danish and Swedish pension funds regarding their sell-offs of U.S. debt signal a growing lack of confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, with the Swedish fund selling between $7.7 billion to $8.8 billion in a single day [5][9]. - The stability of the U.S. Treasury market is crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as it directly impacts the ability to manage economic liquidity [7][19]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in China - China's reduction in U.S. debt holdings is a systematic adjustment aimed at diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and enhancing risk resilience, with gold reserves increasing to 7.415 million ounces [11][13]. - The decision to retain $683 billion in U.S. debt reflects a strategic move to transition from being a passive supporter of the U.S. debt market to an active market participant, allowing for more flexible investment decisions [15][21]. - China's approach indicates a shift in its role from a "buyer of last resort" to a player that makes decisions based on its own strategic considerations and risk assessments [15][21]. Group 3: Implications for U.S. Financial Stability - Trump's threats to retaliate against those selling U.S. debt highlight a deeper issue of political interference in market behavior, challenging the established norms of international finance [17][19]. - The potential for a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury securities could undermine the perception of them as a "safe asset," which relies on global trust and free market principles [17][19]. - The U.S. financial system is facing increasing challenges, with record fiscal deficits and liquidity constraints, raising concerns about its resilience to market fluctuations [19][21].

Group 1 - The global financial system is undergoing unprecedented transformation, with power struggles occurring across various regions including the US, Europe, China, and the Middle East [1] - The US fiscal deficit reached a staggering $145 billion in December 2025, marking a 67% increase year-over-year and setting a historical high [2] - Trump's aggressive stance against Powell and the Federal Reserve has escalated tensions, with accusations that the Fed's policies have worsened the fiscal situation [2] Group 2 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the US government is complex, with significant policy disagreements emerging, particularly regarding interest rates [3] - A rare joint statement from central bank leaders of eight countries supporting Powell's independence highlights the global implications of US monetary policy [3] - China's significant reduction of US Treasury holdings from $1.2 trillion to $688.7 billion signals a strategic shift in response to US economic uncertainties [5] Group 3 - The volatility in the US Treasury market, with ten-year bond yields fluctuating dramatically, reflects investor concerns about US financial stability [8] - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining trust in the US financial system, and any challenge to this independence could have severe consequences [7] - The ongoing power struggle between Trump and Powell raises questions about the resilience of the US constitutional system and the future of the Federal Reserve's autonomy [15] Group 4 - The international financial landscape is shifting, with countries diversifying their asset allocations to reduce reliance on the US dollar [11] - China's strategy of reducing US debt while increasing gold reserves and promoting the internationalization of the yuan is a proactive response to global economic uncertainties [13] - The future of the financial landscape remains uncertain, with various forces at play and no clear predictions available [15]

Economic Issues - The new president's first action was to impose significant tariffs, which generated nearly a trillion in revenue for the treasury, but this is merely a short-term fix for deeper fiscal deficits [3][10] - Historical parallels are drawn to the Reagan administration, where similar fiscal strategies led to a doubling of the deficit in three years, indicating a lack of long-term planning [6][11] Administrative Challenges - The government's budget impasse has led to chaos within the administrative system, including mass layoffs of federal employees, which is unprecedented in peacetime [8] - Initial efforts to improve efficiency through audits and oversight have faltered when confronting entrenched interests within the financial system [8][10] Strategic Missteps in Technology Investment - The U.S. has seen a dramatic decline in federal research spending, now at single-digit percentages, which threatens its technological leadership [13][14] - Funding has shifted away from essential scientific research towards outdated industries like oil and coal, while competitors are heavily investing in future technologies [14] International Relations and Alliances - The credibility of the U.S. alliance network is weakening, with traditional allies expressing reluctance to be pawns in great power conflicts [15][16] - U.S. foreign policy inconsistencies, particularly regarding support for Ukraine and actions in the Middle East, have eroded trust among allies [16][18] Long-term Implications - The decline in strategic direction and investment could lead to a gradual erosion of U.S. global standing, with potential long-term consequences for its economic and military dominance [21][24] - The possibility of the U.S. losing its position as a global leader is becoming increasingly tangible, marking a significant shift in the international landscape [26]

Group 1 - The core proposal is to increase the U.S. military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027, representing a 50% increase [4][26][30] - Major defense contractors, including Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon Technologies, experienced significant stock price fluctuations, initially rising and then falling sharply due to market reactions to Trump's statements [6][9][11] - Trump's criticism of defense contractors for prioritizing shareholder returns over production capabilities highlights the complex relationship between the military-industrial complex and government interests [13][14][25] Group 2 - The proposed military budget increase has raised concerns about fiscal risks and the potential for exacerbating the national debt, which is already over $38 trillion [30][31][35] - Critics argue that the funding source, based on tariff revenues, is unrealistic and insufficient to cover the proposed budget increase, leading to potential cuts in social spending [28][30][33] - The political feasibility of the proposal is uncertain, as it faces likely opposition from the Democratic Party and potential divisions within the Republican Party [36][38][40]