有分析指出，关税战对美国的影响很大，因为这直接破坏了国际贸易秩序和美国经济秩序。现在美国财 政赤字已经失控，无法偿还36万亿美元的巨额债务，"美国接近破产"已经成为全球性共识。因此，特朗 普如果拿不出能立即遏制赤字增加的重大决策，那么美国破产的可能性将无限接近100%。而且，在经 过了大半年的折腾后，美国"政府效率部"的支出削减改革彻底失败，特朗普只剩"加税"一条路。虽然美 国与欧盟、日本、韩国等达成贸易协议，但并没有马上签署，而且欧盟和日本内部对协议执行的反对声 音很强烈。从这个情况看，想用"关税战"施压他国帮美国化债，可行性并不高。这种局面下，国际投资 者对美债更不看好，美债收益率一路上涨，美联储就不敢进行降息。 而且，就在中美会谈结束后，美联储宣布维持利率，而且还强调9月进行降息为时过早。这个情况，对 特朗普来说，无疑是一个噩耗。要知道，特朗普一直在施压美联储主席鲍威尔，要求他尽快降息。在上 周，特朗普还戴着安全帽现身美联储工地，一番话让鲍威尔哑口无言。但这个情况也说明，特朗普其实 对鲍威尔没有什么办法，只能靠"色厉内荏"的言语施压，给自己争取一些面子。而鲍威尔也不是"软柿 子"，他看似内敛低调，但决断 ...

申银万国期货分析指出，美联储7月利率会议继续按兵不动，但美联储内部观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过 人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落 地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下价位较 高黄金上行迟疑，金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现震荡走势。 消息面上，今日凌晨，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有 两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数 还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 8月20日，受美股回落，美元走弱和美债收益率下滑支撑，市场避险需求上升，金价大幅反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.00%报3392.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.3%，黄 金股ETF(159562)涨1.39%。 ...

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 此外，从美联储较为倚重的失业率指标来看，7月的最新值为4.2%，已经连续三个月维持不变，和2020 年4月14.8%的高点相比，下降了10.6个百分点，并且整体趋势平缓。就历史数据而言，目前美国的失业 率约维持在2017年7月~2019年1月的水平区间。 有意思的是，如果继续做个历史数据的对比，或者也可以理解白宫对美联储的不满。就以同期数据为 例，2017年7月~2019年1月期间，美国的PCE为1.5%至1.4%之间，当时美国联邦基金利率的区间分别为 1%~1.25%、2.25%~2.5%。或许在白宫看来，既然美联储公布了货币政策的工具箱，那么当前的PCE和 失业率指标，已足以证明美联储应该尽快降息。 可是，经济常识告诉我们，物价冲击具有延迟性，如果美国不能与贸易伙伴达成一致性关税，那么美国 通胀失控的风险并不能完全排除，所以美联储的观望也可以理解。毕竟，制约美联储降息"踟蹰不前"的 最大变量就是关税冲击对美国物价的不确定性。这在历史上也并非无例可循。 但当前问题的关键在于，美联储的高利率与美国政府居高不下利息支出形成了悖论。目前，美国国债已 经走到了"技 ...

Core Insights - The average global tariff rate imposed by the U.S. is estimated to be around 18% according to BlueBay Asset Management [1] - The projected annual revenue from U.S. tariffs is approximately $450 billion, with an expected increase to $770 billion in 2024, representing 1.25% of GDP [1] - This tariff revenue is anticipated to help reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit to slightly below 7% of GDP in the coming year [1]

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade and result in 10 million people losing health insurance by 2034 [1] - The act includes $1.1 trillion in net spending cuts but results in a tax revenue decrease of $4.5 trillion, leading to a significant fiscal gap [1] - The act extends many tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform and provides additional tax relief for tips and overtime pay over the next four years [1] Group 1 - The act includes new military spending and budget for large-scale deportation policies while cutting Medicaid, food assistance for low-income families, and clean energy funding [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that modifications to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will lower average premiums by 0.6% but will ultimately lead to 10 million additional people losing health insurance [1] Group 2 - Public opinion polls indicate that the act is generally unpopular among the American public, with Democrats criticizing it as a tax plan tailored for the wealthy [2] - Republicans argue that the act is designed for working-class and middle-income families, emphasizing the positive impact of tax cuts on wages and job opportunities [2] - Fitch Ratings expressed concerns about the U.S. fiscal health, projecting that government deficits will remain above 7% of GDP and that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 135% by 2029 [2] Group 3 - Fitch also raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1.2% to 1.5% for 2025, but noted that growth momentum is expected to slow within the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the recently signed tax and spending bill, known as the "Big and Beautiful" plan, will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is projected to significantly contribute to the U.S. deficit, with an estimated increase of $3.4 trillion over a ten-year period [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to fluctuate while silver shows relative strength. The US retail sales monthly rate increased by 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. There were rumors that Trump considered firing Powell, which he later denied, but the Trump administration tried to influence market expectations through potential new Fed chair candidates. The US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year in June, the largest increase this year, cooling short - term rate - cut expectations. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for major trading countries, but there is a risk of the final tariff threat being partially realized. With good economic data recently, the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded. Although the impact of the tariff policy shown by US data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is boosted by industrial products and shows relative strength. Recently, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Precious Metals Futures**: For gold futures, the current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.60 and 779.14 respectively, with price increases of 0.64 and 0.76, and price increase rates of 0.08% and 0.10%. For silver futures, the current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9246.00 and 9292.00 respectively, with price increases of 106.00 and price increase rates of 1.16% and 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract are also provided [2]. - **Related Indices and Assets**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. Spot Market - **Precious Metals Spot**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London gold, and London silver are given, along with their price changes and price change rates. The price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.28 with a decline rate of - 0.17%, London gold decreased by 1.24 with a decline rate of - 0.16%, and London silver increased by 0.28 with an increase rate of 0.75% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai gold/London gold, and Shanghai silver/London silver are provided, as well as their previous values [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, etc. are given. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms, the silver inventory increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 493,426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Derivatives - The current positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators' net positions in gold and silver are provided. The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF positions both increased by 1.00 ton to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position in gold decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macroeconomic News - The US Treasury Secretary Bentsen privately advised Trump not to fire Fed Chairman Powell, warning of economic, political, and legal consequences. Trump said he didn't need anyone to explain the pros and cons. Ukraine has invited Russia to hold a new round of negotiations this week, with the negotiation date to be determined, and Istanbul will be the location for the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to further increase the fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy in the medium term [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The act is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from FY2025 to FY2035, surpassing the previous estimate of $2.8 trillion [5]. - The act extends tax cuts from Trump's first term but reduces government spending through measures like cutting child tax credits and lowering renewable energy subsidies [4][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the annual fiscal deficit could exceed $2 trillion, which is over 6% of GDP, indicating a significant fiscal challenge ahead [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Tariff Revenue - Historically, tariffs were a major source of U.S. government revenue, accounting for up to 90% of total revenue from 1790 to 1860, but this has significantly declined over the years [6][7]. - By 2024, tariffs are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to total U.S. fiscal revenue, which is a modest recovery compared to historical levels [8]. Group 3: Recent Trends in Tariff Revenue - In June, U.S. tariff revenue exceeded $27 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a potential short-term boost to fiscal income [9][10]. - The increase in tariff revenue may be influenced by temporary factors, such as strong import activity, which may not be sustainable in the long run [10][11]. Group 4: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Policy - The sustainability of current tariff rates is uncertain, as potential negotiations with trading partners could lead to reductions in tariffs, impacting future revenue [11][12]. - The overall economic impact of tariff policies on U.S. growth and fiscal revenue remains unclear, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries posing additional risks [12][13]. Group 5: Need for Comprehensive Fiscal Solutions - Relying solely on tariff revenue to address the growing fiscal deficit is insufficient, as even optimistic projections suggest limited contributions relative to the overall deficit [14]. - Achieving medium-term fiscal balance will require a multifaceted approach beyond just increasing tariff revenues [14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. fiscal deficit is on an unsustainable path, which may lead to financial stability issues in the future [1] Group 1 - The current trajectory of the U.S. fiscal deficit raises concerns about long-term sustainability [1] - Potential implications of the fiscal deficit include risks to financial stability [1]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by both the Senate and House of Representatives, showcasing President Trump's strong control over the Republican Party [1][5] - The bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for beneficiaries to access healthcare, with an estimated 11.8 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid coverage over the next decade [2][9] - The bill will increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, leading to higher interest rates and increased costs for consumer loans and business financing [4][9] Group 2 - The bill has sparked intense political battles between the Republican and Democratic parties, reflecting deepening political divisions in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election [5][8] - The passage of the bill has been met with widespread skepticism regarding its economic impact, particularly concerning the potential increase in national debt and wealth inequality [9][11] - The bill is expected to disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans, with the top 20% of income earners projected to see an annual net income increase of nearly $13,000, while the lowest income group may experience a 1.1% decrease in post-tax income [12][11] Group 3 - The bill's passage has led to a public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk, who criticized the bill for undermining fiscal responsibility and announced the formation of a new political party, the "American Party" [16][17] - The new party could potentially influence legislative processes if it gains traction, although establishing a new political party typically requires significant time and financial resources [17]