只要就业和通胀数据保持稳定，不再出现反复波动的情况，市场对于美联储货币政策路径的迷茫和困惑 就会迅速消散。届时，资金的关注焦点将重新聚焦到美国巨额财政赤字长期恶化的问题上。而这一因 素，恰恰是孕育黄金长期牛市最为肥沃的土壤，为黄金价格的持续上涨提供了坚实的基础。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 据相关数据显示，目前全球央行平均黄金储备占比约为20%。而作为全球重要经济体的中国，其黄金储 备占比仅为8%。值得注意的是，几乎所有央行都将黄金储备的目标设定在了30%！这一目标的明确， 意味着在未来几年内，还将有数千吨的黄金被各国央行收入囊中。如此大规模的扫货行为，无疑将对黄 金市场的供需关系产生深远的影响，使得供需天平彻底向多头一方倾斜，为黄金价格的走势提供了强大 的支撑。 今年，黄金ETF持仓量出现了惊人的增长，增幅高达17%。这一现象的背后，是越来越多的投资者对传 统投资理念的重新审视。在高通胀时代，传统的"60%股票+40%债券"投资组合显得力不从心，难以有 效抵御通货膨胀带来的风险。因此，投资者们开始寻求新的投资策略，将目光投向了黄金、白银、铜、 原油等具有硬资产属性的投资品种，以期通过对这些资产的配置，实现对冲 ...

2025.11. 17 本文字数：1729，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 近期，美债交易员对美联储降息乐观预期压过了对美国财政赤字的担忧，从而令市场预期美债有望迎 来2020年来最佳年度表现。 不过，也有分析提醒，从美联储降息前景，到政府重新开门公布数据后带来的短期动荡，以及美国信 贷市场热掩盖的投资者风险溢价不足等，都可能成为本轮美债涨势的威胁。 美债将录得2020年来最佳年度表现？ Badgley Phelps财富管理公司的固定收益经理斯普戈（Cal Spranger）则透露："我这段时间作为 债券经理参加了多场客户会议，而过去几年，我始终没有被邀请参加任何活动。尽管美国国债和企业 债收益率逐渐下降，但仍远高于过去十年大部分时间的水平，因而投资者仍希望在可能的情况下，将 这一较高收益锁定，助推了美债走势。" 此外，斯普戈表示，特朗普政府的一些政策也助力了美债市场近期的涨势。特朗普政府一直密切关注 市场，甚至在美债市场动荡时期突然介入。美国财政部部长贝森特近期也表示，保持长期美债的低收 益率是政府的首要任务，因为从抵押贷款到学生贷款，都会受到基准美债收益率的影响。 仍面临这些威胁 但也有市 ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2020 [1][2] - Optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to positive market expectations for U.S. Treasuries [1][2] - Despite the positive outlook, analysts warn of potential threats to the current bond rally, including uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cuts and the impact of government data releases [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, has shown a return of 6.7% this year, significantly outperforming short-term U.S. Treasuries [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently closed at 4.147%, down nearly 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a decline in yields amid investor concerns about fiscal prospects [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, although there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding the direction of monetary policy [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, with current employment and inflation trends showing no significant changes [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are currently optimistic about locking in higher yields from U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, despite the yields being higher than most of the past decade [3] - Concerns persist regarding the U.S. government's budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, which could pressure the bond market [4] - The spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to 0.72 percentage points, the lowest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and risk in the corporate bond market [5]

这是10月21日在美国华盛顿拍摄的国会大厦。新华社 图 据新华社报道，美国财政部10月22日数据显示，美国国债总额首次突破38万亿美元，距离突破37万亿美元仅过去两个多月，创下除新冠疫情时期 外最快的万亿美元债务累计速度。 美国债务于2024年1月达到34万亿美元，2024年7月达到35万亿美元，2024年11月达到36万亿美元，2025年8月达到37万亿美元。 美国国债的规模及其累积速度，正引发外界对美国财政健康状况和现行联邦政策可持续性的迫切质疑。与此同时，美国联邦政府仍深陷停摆危 机，数十万联邦工作人员拿不到工资，部分经济活动陷入混乱。 美国哥伦比亚广播公司指出，政府停摆导致的经济活动延缓和财政决策推迟，将进一步促使美国国债总额加速增长。此外，暂停和重启联邦项目 也会增加额外的财政成本。 彼得森同时警告称，随着债务规模的增加，利息成本也会随之上升。"利息成本现在已成为预算中增长最快的部分，过去十年，我们在利息上花费 了4万亿美元，但未来十年将达到14万亿美元，从而挤占了关键经济部门的公共和私人支出。" 美国《新闻周刊》指出，由于国债利息支付可能优先于必要的公共投资，政策制定者将面临越来越大的制定长期财政 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence between the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the outlook for the U.S. budget deficit, with the Treasury projecting a decrease while the IMF warns of an expanding deficit [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury's Perspective - The U.S. Treasury estimates that the budget deficit for FY 2025 will be approximately $1.8 trillion, a reduction of about $41 billion from the previous fiscal year, marking the first annual decline in deficit since the expiration of pandemic relief programs in 2022 [1]. - Treasury Secretary's economic advisor, Joe Lavorgna, attributes the improvement in fiscal conditions to increased revenue from tariffs and a significant slowdown in spending growth [1]. - From April to September, the cumulative deficit was $468 billion, the lowest level since 2019, and nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [2]. Group 2: IMF's Perspective - The IMF argues that current tariff measures are insufficient to meaningfully reduce debt and calls for more actions to address the persistently high deficit [1][3]. - The IMF's World Economic Outlook report predicts that despite later spending cuts and tariff revenues, the U.S. fiscal deficit will further widen compared to previous forecasts [3]. - The IMF warns that under current fiscal policies, U.S. public debt is expected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, which is 15 percentage points higher than earlier predictions [3]. Group 3: Government Spending Trends - Government spending growth has slowed, with a mere 0.2% increase in Q2 and a 2.5% decrease in Q3 compared to the previous year [2]. - The Treasury emphasizes that the large tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are expected to generate $300 billion in revenue this year, potentially rising to $400 billion next year [2]. Group 4: Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months, marking one of the fastest debt growth periods outside of the pandemic [3][4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt have reached approximately $1 trillion annually, becoming the fastest-growing item in the federal budget, with projections indicating a rise to $14 trillion over the next decade [4]. Group 5: Structural Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown exacerbates fiscal challenges, with previous shutdowns leading to significant increases in federal spending [4]. - The Treasury warns that the U.S. is on an "unsustainable fiscal path," with current policies deemed unsustainable compared to past economic crises [5].

在社交媒体上，不少买入黄金的网友心态"崩"了。 来源：北京商报 对于黄金未来走势，各机构态度不一。 花旗银行一改此前看涨表态，表示短期内看跌黄金，设定0—3个月目标价为4000美元/盎司。花旗银行 预计，美国政府"停摆"结束及中美协议公布可能推动黄金在未来2—3周内进入震荡整理阶段。 一夜之间，黄金从避险资产变成了风险资产。 当地时间21日，受地缘政治、投资者获利止盈等多重因素影响，黄金、白银遭遇市场广泛抛售。当天， 国际现货黄金价格一度下跌超6%，跌破每盎司4100美元，创下12年来最大单日跌幅；国际现货白银价 格一度下跌超8%，跌破每盎司48美元，创下2021年以来最大单日跌幅。 据大河报，一名福建网友发视频称："在暴跌之前，我订了1公斤的黄金板料和15公斤的白银板料，1个 小时至少亏损了5万元。" 受此影响，国内品牌连锁金店也调整了今日金饰金条的挂牌价格。其中亚一金店、老庙黄金金饰报价 1211元/克，较前一日下跌83元/克；老凤祥报1229元/克，较前一日下跌61元/克；周大福、六福、潮宏 基、周大生报1235元/克，较前一日下跌57元/克。 对于价格的波动，周大福方面表示，集团设有机制密切监测金价波 ...

本文字数：2030，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 因投资者等待近期中美贸易谈判及美国通胀数据发布，叠加市场对美联储进一步降息的预期与避险需求 持续升温，国际金价周一大幅上涨超4%。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货日内触及4398美 元/盎司高位，再创历史新高，截至记者发稿时，金价交投于4380美元附近。 V型反转 上周五，金价曾触及每盎司4392美元的历史高点，随后尾盘跳水当日收盘下跌1.8%，创下自5月中旬以 来的最大单日跌幅。消息面上，美国总统特朗普的表态在一定程度上缓解了市场对贸易紧张形势的担 忧，与此同时，地区银行危机降温也打压了避险情绪。 周一，黄金在欧洲交易时段再起升势，CPM集团（CPM Group）管理合伙人克里斯蒂安（Jeffrey Christian）表示，政治与经济层面的担忧正推动金价回升。"我们预计，未来数周乃至数月内金价将进 一步走高，若短期内触及每盎司4500美元，我们也不会感到意外。"他补充道。 2025.10.21 美国政府停摆状态进入第20天。上周，参议员们第十次尝试打破僵局，但未能成功。受"停摆"影响，美 国能源部下属国家核安全管理局约1400名 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy, previously described as resilient, is now facing significant challenges due to a government shutdown that has lasted 15 days, resulting in an estimated economic loss of approximately $1.5 billion per day, totaling around $15 billion so far [3][5] - The current GDP growth rate is around 1.6%, and the shutdown's economic losses could potentially erase half of this quarter's growth [3][5] Historical Context - The U.S. has experienced 21 government shutdowns since 1976, with the longest lasting 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, which resulted in over $11 billion in economic losses and affected over 200,000 employees [5] - The current situation is exacerbated by a political stalemate between Republicans and Democrats, with conflicting priorities on budget cuts and social welfare [7][9] Employment and Inflation - The September employment report revealed only 89,000 new non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 150,000, marking the worst performance since December of the previous year [5] - Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.3% in September, core inflation remains around 4%, far from the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5] Political Dynamics - The current political deadlock is characterized by a lack of effective governance, with only 17% of respondents in a Gallup poll believing Congress can govern effectively, a figure lower than during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic [7] - The Biden administration faces pressure to compromise, but doing so may be perceived as an admission of fiscal mismanagement ahead of the upcoming elections [9] Fiscal Challenges - The projected federal deficit for this year is approximately $1.7 trillion, a 23% increase from the previous year, with total national debt exceeding $34 trillion, accounting for over 120% of GDP [10] - The reliance on consumer debt is highlighted by the record high of $1.13 trillion in credit card debt as of the second quarter, indicating a fragile economic foundation [12][14] Structural Issues - The current economic situation is described as structurally fatigued rather than a temporary setback, with ongoing job losses and financial strain on households [14][16] - The combination of fiscal constraints, inflation, and employment challenges suggests that mere rhetoric will not resolve the underlying issues facing the economy [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is currently in the "5" range as a percentage of GDP, with potential to decrease to the "3%" range [1] - The federal deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, has decreased compared to the previous fiscal year, although official data has not yet been released due to government shutdowns [1] - The government shutdown is identified as the sole drag on U.S. economic growth, causing an estimated daily loss of $15 billion in output [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is experiencing a "sustainable investment boom," with AI investments believed to be in the "third phase" of development [2] - Capital expenditure expansion is expected to drive job market growth, and there are no concerns regarding AI leading to mass unemployment [2] - The U.S. trade deficit reduction is anticipated to support a stronger dollar, and the timing of the dollar's bottom coincided with the tax reform bill's passage [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue due to Trump's tariff policies, but highlights that this revenue is insufficient to address the massive federal budget deficit [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Federal Budget Deficit - The U.S. federal budget deficit for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, showing little improvement compared to previous years [3]. - The deficit for the fiscal year 2025 is only $80 billion less than that of 2024, indicating a persistent fiscal challenge [3]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the budget deficit will account for approximately 5.9% of GDP in 2025, a slight decrease from 6.4% in the previous fiscal year [9]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure - Total U.S. revenue is estimated to increase by $308 billion (6%) in the fiscal year 2025, while total expenditure is expected to rise by $301 billion (4%) [5]. - Tariff revenue is projected to reach $195 billion in 2025, a significant increase from $77 billion in the previous fiscal year [7]. - Interest payments on the national debt have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, contributing significantly to the rising expenditure [5][7]. Group 3: Corporate Tax Revenue - Corporate tax revenue is expected to decline by 15% in the fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, largely due to tax reforms allowing larger deductions for certain investments [9]. - The postponement of some tax revenues originally due in 2023 to 2024 has also contributed to the decrease in corporate tax revenue [9]. Group 4: Legal Challenges - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expresses optimism about the growth in tariff revenue, but warns of potential legal challenges that could arise if the Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariff policies [11]. - If the court rules unfavorably, the government may have to refund tariffs collected, potentially amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, posing a significant risk to the Treasury [12].