王爷说财经讯：特朗普关税一加，美国关税收入大幅增加，但最新数据显示，即便如此，相比于美国巨额的财政赤字，美国这点关税收入简直是"杯水车 薪"！ 那么目前美国财政预算赤字到底有多大？美国这个财政窟窿有多大？特朗普关税又能给美国带来多少收入呢？一起来看看数据吧！ 01、2025财年美国财政赤字或高达1.8万亿美元！ 10月9日，据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）最新公布的数据显示，美国总统特朗普所推行的关税政策给美国带来了相当可观的收入，然而，这部分额外进账 却在很大程度上被首次突破万一美元大关的美债利息支出，以及其他持续攀升的各项开支所抵销，导致美国整体的财政状况并没有得到太大的改善。 02、美国财政支出主要增加在哪？ 与此同时，按照CBO的估算结果显示，在2025财政年度，美国总收入增长了3080亿美元，增幅达到6%，但是总支出也同步增加了3010亿美元，增幅为4%。 那么美国到底是什么支出最多呢？ 王爷说财经注意到，据CBO公布的数据显示，在美国这些支出项目中，美债的利息支出成为推动整体开支上涨的关键因素，其年度总额更是有史以来首次 超越了1万亿美元。 对此，美国财经媒体指出，在经济扩张的时期，美国却出现如此高 ...

北京时间10月3日晚，美股三大指数高开后，盘中均创历史新高，热门科技股涨跌不一。 | RLX.N | 2.5 IU | -5.40% | | --- | --- | --- | | 微博 | 12.460 | -2.88% | | WB.O | | | | 爰奇艺 | 2.420 | -2.81% | | IQ.O | | | | 小牛电动 | 4.685 | -2.80% | | NIU.O | | | 国际金价拉升，COMEX黄金期货站上3900美元/盎司，现货黄金也一度突破3890美元/盎司。COMEX白银涨近2.7%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3873.562 | 47.762 | 3902.0 | | +17.902 +0.46% | +0.802 +1.71% | +33.9 +0.88% | | COMEX自银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 47.615 | 874.40 | 10918 | | +1.246 +2.69% | +12.74 +1.48% | +83 +0.77% | 美元指数走弱。 | 道琼斯 ...

美国的财政问题现在就像一场悄无声息的大雪崩，正在一点点蚕食这个超级大国的根基，到2025年9月美国联邦债务已经飙到37.4万亿美元，其中有超过30 万亿是公众手里的，政府内部的债务也超过了7万亿。 经济学家斯蒂格利茨在演讲中直接指出，美国债务太高已经影响了投资，现在美联储手里持有的美国国债超过7.5万亿美元成了最大的债主，多年来债务越 积越多，到2024年已经很高，2025年还在继续加速。 基础设施法案推不动，两党争吵不断，社会福利和军费开支占了大头，海外基地也在不断烧钱，效率审计报告还被搁置一边。 光是利息支出就成了美国财政的大负担，几乎占了全部开支的17%，比如2024年美国光还利息就花了9210亿美元，2025年上半年这个数字还在继续飙升，搞 得医疗、教育等公共服务都快喘不过气来了。 更糟糕的是财政赤字像雪球一样越滚越大，2024年底债务刚到33万亿，几个月后就突破了36万亿，税收根本赶不上花钱的速度。 特朗普第二次上台后，本来想用减税来刺激经济，结果反而让财政窟窿越来越大，十年时间债务又多了22万亿，国会里吵得不可开交，债务上限一改再改， 今年夏天差点因为这个闹出政府关门。 后来特朗普成立了一个效率委 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, expressed approval of the RMB to USD exchange rate, noting that the RMB has strengthened against the USD this year, increasing by approximately 3% [1][3] - Bessent highlighted that the RMB is at a historical low against the Euro, which poses a problem for Europe, as the RMB has depreciated about 10% against the Euro [1][3] - Recent data indicates that the RMB to Euro exchange rate has reached a historical low of over 8.4, compared to 7.5 at the beginning of 2025, which may boost China's exports to Europe and increase the EU's trade deficit with China [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government maintains that the RMB exchange rate has remained stable at a reasonable level, with the RMB index against a basket of currencies operating around 100 since 2020, indicating no competitive devaluation [3] - As of September 19, the central parity rate of the RMB was reported at 7.1128 against the USD and 8.3834 against the Euro [3] - Bessent defended the U.S. tariff policies, claiming that the trade deficit with China may decrease by 30% this year due to these tariffs [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for increased fiscal stimulus in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential shift towards more expansive fiscal policies [68] - If the popular candidate, Sanae Takaichi, assumes office, it may lead to further fiscal expansion, impacting long-term interest rates [68] Group 3 - The article notes that the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on global imports stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China [72] - The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to expedite the review of tariffs, which may affect the current tariff structure [72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term segment, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the same period last year [75] - Total expenditures for the year have increased to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion last year, while total tax revenue has risen to $3.44 trillion from $3.14 trillion [75]

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing its first bearish signal in half a year, with a recommendation to reduce positions in the main board and small-cap sectors to low levels, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Market Performance - Last week, the market recorded gains, with the CSI 300 index up 1.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, and the CSI 500 index up 3.38%. Speculative funds became active again, pushing various sector indices to their highs before August [3]. Economic Indicators - The domestic economy is showing signs of weakening while inflation is rising. Recent import and export data showed significant weakness, which has hindered the enthusiasm of some institutional investors. Financial data released last Friday appeared stable but is actually weakening, with expectations of a slowdown in year-on-year growth in the coming months. Meanwhile, CPI and PPI data have shown a rebound, indicating a temporary stagflation cycle in the Chinese economy [3][4]. Technical Analysis - There is a deepening divergence in the funding landscape. While the market has been driven by funds since June, institutional funds have shown a more decisive reduction in positions, while speculative funds are attempting a final upward push. The strength of technical signals has weakened [4]. Sector Positioning - The main board's market-driving forces are becoming increasingly differentiated, shifting from fundamentals to funds, and then to speculative funds. This indicates that market volatility is likely to increase further. The recommendation is to reduce positions in the main board to low levels, marking the first sell signal in half a year. The small-cap sector also showed slight advantages due to speculative activity, but overall differentiation has increased, suggesting a balanced style for the time being [5]. Short-term Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates and emphasized that a rate cut in September is premature, which is unfavorable for Trump [1] - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell has not yielded results, indicating his limited influence over monetary policy [1] - The trade war has significantly impacted the U.S. economy, disrupting international trade and contributing to a soaring fiscal deficit of $36 trillion [1] Group 2 - There is a growing consensus that the U.S. is approaching bankruptcy unless substantial measures to curb the deficit are implemented [1] - The failure of government efficiency reforms leaves Trump with limited options, primarily relying on tax increases [1] - International investors are increasingly pessimistic about U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to rising yields and further discouraging the Fed from cutting rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices, influenced by a decline in U.S. stock markets, a weaker dollar, and falling U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.00% to $3,392.20 per ounce [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) decreased by 0.3%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.39% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that nearly all decision-makers supported maintaining interest rates, with only two dissenting [1] - There are divisions among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, with a consensus that inflationary risks outweigh those related to employment [1] - Several officials noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation will take time to fully materialize [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures indicated that while the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, there is a split in internal opinions influenced by personnel appointments made by Trump [1] - Trade negotiations show some progress, but the overall trade environment continues to deteriorate [1] - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to further increase U.S. fiscal deficit projections [1] - The People's Bank of China is continuously increasing its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices, although current high levels may lead to hesitation in upward movement [1] - The overall trend for gold and silver may exhibit volatility as expectations for interest rate cuts rise [1]

Market Overview - International gold prices fell again on August 19, with an opening price of $3335.57 per ounce, a high of $3345.29, a low of $3320.92, and a closing price of $3322.60 [1] News Analysis - Trump criticized Jerome Powell on social media, claiming that his actions are severely harming the real estate industry and that there are no signs of inflation, suggesting a significant rate cut is necessary [2] - S&P confirmed the U.S. sovereign rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, indicating that while the fiscal deficit may not improve significantly in the coming years, it also will not worsen [2] - S&P projects that U.S. government net debt will exceed 100% of GDP over the next three years, with an average deficit of 6% of GDP from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5% last year [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 86.1% [6] Geopolitical Developments - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, emphasizing that the U.S. will assist Ukraine in defense but will not deploy ground troops [4] - Discussions are ongoing about providing Ukraine with security guarantees, although NATO membership is off the table [4] - A potential summit in Budapest involving U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian leaders is being planned, with security concerns regarding the location due to historical context [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop leading to a short-term bottom reversal, and the market is expected to maintain a bearish outlook [9] - The short-term gold price trend indicates a strong downward movement, with the possibility of a correction due to oversold conditions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a small interest rate cut in September, influenced by rising inflation data and pressure from the White House, despite the current economic indicators not supporting a large-scale reduction [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in July, with the core CPI rising by 3.1%, indicating that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2% [1]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, recorded a June value of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in May and 2.2% in April, justifying the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [2]. Employment Metrics - The unemployment rate in July was reported at 4.2%, unchanged for three consecutive months, and significantly lower than the peak of 14.8% in April 2020, suggesting a stable labor market [3]. Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government is approaching a "technical default," with projections indicating that 30% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025 will be allocated to debt interest payments, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [4]. - The ongoing high-interest payments on national debt create a paradox with the Fed's high interest rates, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and potential market reactions [4]. Market Reactions - Since April, there has been a notable sell-off of ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing market anxiety over the U.S. debt repayment crisis and the sustainability of government revenue [4].