内需疲软与物价高企形成的双重压力，进一步加剧日本经济的下行压力。日本厚生劳动省数据显示，9 月该国名义工资涨幅仅1.9%，而实际工资水平同比下降1.4%，工资增长远不及物价上涨幅度，直接导 致民众可支配收入缩水。三季度日本个人消费环比仅微增0.1%，较二季度0.4%的增速大幅放缓，难以 对经济形成有效支撑。与此同时，物价上涨压力持续发酵，10月日本核心通胀率升至3%，连续多月高 于央行2%的目标。食品与能源价格的居高不下，使家庭收支平衡持续承压。 近日，日本内阁府发布经济数据显示，今年三季度日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.4%，按 年率计算降幅达1.8%，这是自2024年第一季度以来GDP再次出现负增长。当前，日本经济面临财政和 货币政策两难、经济增长乏力、国际竞争力不足以及美国加征关税等多重困境。日本媒体和专家担忧， 日本首相高市早苗近日发表涉台错误言论，严重损害日中关系，将进一步冲击本已面临下行压力的日本 经济，导致四季度经济再现负增长。 受美国关税政策影响，日本三季度货物及服务贸易出口环比下降1.2%，进口因内需疲软环比下降 0.1%，外需对当季经济增长的贡献为负0.2个百分点。2025上半财 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year in Q1, marking the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 2024, attributed to high prices and uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, grew only 0.04% quarter-on-quarter, indicating weak demand across various food and high-priced goods [1] - Exports fell by 0.6% in Q1, the first negative growth in four quarters, while imports increased by 2.9%, driven by aircraft imports and rising advertising service costs [1] Consumer Behavior - High food prices, particularly rice, are significantly impacting real wages and consumer spending, with rice prices remaining close to double the level of the previous year despite government interventions [2] - The ongoing debate within Japan regarding the potential increase of U.S. rice imports as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations highlights the tension between economic strategy and food security concerns [2] Trade Negotiations - Japan's trade representatives are closely monitoring the risks of economic recession due to U.S. trade policies, with rising prices potentially affecting consumer confidence and overall economic performance [3] - The upcoming third round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations is critical, especially after previous rounds ended in stalemate, with Japan's insistence on zero tariffs being challenged by the current political landscape [4] Future Economic Outlook - Economic experts predict that the decline in Japan's economic data is just the beginning, with new U.S. tariffs expected to further impact consumer and business confidence [5] - Major Japanese automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are forecasting significant financial losses due to U.S. tariffs, which may lead to reduced consumer activity and cautious corporate investment moving forward [5]