民营企业出口值首次超6000亿元。京津冀区域民营企业出口6259.4亿元、增长16.1%，已超去年全年水 平，首次突破6000亿元，占同期京津冀出口总值的(下同)47.4%。 汽车零配件、医药品、船舶等出口保持强势。主要出口商品中，汽车零配件、纺织服装、集成电路、医 药材及药品、船舶分别增长12.6%、6.9%、6.5%、35.6%、155.3%。 对共建"一带一路"国家出口增长7.8%，占比近6成。主要出口伙伴中，对共建"一带一路"国家出口 7697.0亿元、增长7.8%、占58.3%。对东盟、欧盟、非洲、南美洲出口分别增长4.0%、4.0%、32.0%、 13.7%。 中新网12月29日电 据北京海关发布微信公众号消息，前11个月，京津冀地区进出口超4万亿元，达到4.3 万亿元，创历史同期新高。其中，前11个月京津冀区域出口1.32万亿元，也创历史同期新高。 据北京海关统计，前11个月京津冀区域出口1.32万亿元、同比增长5.9%，创历史同期新高。 ...

12月23日，北京青年报记者从北京海关获悉，前11个月，京津冀地区进出口超4万亿元，达到4.3万亿 元，创历史同期新高。其中，前11个月京津冀区域出口1.32万亿元，也创历史同期新高。 汽车零配件、医药品、船舶等出口保持强势。主要出口商品中，汽车零配件、纺织服装、集成电路、医 药材及药品、船舶分别增长12.6%、6.9%、6.5%、35.6%、155.3%。 对共建"一带一路"国家出口增长7.8%，占比近6成。主要出口伙伴中，对共建"一带一路"国家出口 7697.0亿元、增长7.8%、占58.3%。对东盟、欧盟、非洲、南美洲出口分别增长4.0%、4.0%、32.0%、 13.7%。 文/北京青年报记者 宋霞 据北京海关统计，前11个月京津冀区域出口1.32万亿元、同比增长5.9%，创历史同期新高。 民营企业出口值首次超6000亿元。京津冀区域民营企业出口6259.4亿元、增长16.1%，已超去年全年水 平，首次突破6000亿元，占同期京津冀出口总值的（下同）47.4%。 ...

汽车零配件、医药品、船舶等出口保持强势。主要出口商品中，汽车零配件、纺织服装、集成电路、医 药材及药品、船舶分别增长12.6%、6.9%、6.5%、35.6%、155.3%。 对共建"一带一路"国家出口增长7.8%，占比近6成。主要出口伙伴中，对共建"一带一路"国家出口 7697.0亿元、增长7.8%、占58.3%。对东盟、欧盟、非洲、南美洲出口分别增长4%、4%、32%、 13.7%。 新京报讯(记者吴婷婷)据北京海关统计，前11个月京津冀区域出口1.32万亿元、同比增长5.9%，创历史 同期新高。 京津冀区域民营企业出口6259.4亿元、增长16.1%，已超去年全年水平，首次突破6000亿元，占同期京 津冀出口总值的47.4%。 ...

分析认为，零售销售复苏在很大程度上得益于"乘用车销售强劲"。累计零售销售额指数显示，乘用车在 15个品类中，在名义指数和不变指数中均呈最高增幅，分别为12.9%和14%。特别是第三季度分别上升 至16%和16.3%。另，医药品(9%)和供暖设备等其他耐用品(6.4%)实现增长，家电产品(-6.3%)、其他半 耐用品(床上用品、厨具等-4.1%)、化妆品(-3.8%)等则出现下滑。 据韩联社12月15日报道，韩国经营者总协会15日发布《近期零售销售现状与展望》报告显示，今年前三 季度，韩国零售销售额经常指数累计增长率为1.9%，时隔4年首次转为上升趋势。剔除价格波动因素， 反映实际零售水平的不变零售指数在今年第三季度的累计增长率为0.4%，虽较2023年和2024年的疲软 表现有所改善，但仍低于疫情前的2%。 ...

Economic Performance - Japan's GDP for Q3 has been revised to a contraction of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decline of 2.3%, marking the first shrinkage in six quarters and indicating significant economic pressure [2] - The downward revision was primarily driven by a shift in corporate capital expenditure from a preliminary growth of 1.0% to a decline of 0.2%, reflecting corporate caution amid uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [2] External Demand - External demand contributed negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points, with the U.S. market accounting for approximately 20% of Japan's total exports [2] - The U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on most goods imported from Japan, significantly higher than the previous 2% to 3% levels, leading to a continuous decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. for seven consecutive months, particularly affecting the automotive, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and pharmaceuticals sectors [2] Internal Demand - Internal demand also negatively impacted Japan's economic growth by 0.4 percentage points, with personal consumption, which constitutes over half of the economy, only slightly increasing by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, insufficient to support overall economic growth [3] - Despite nominal wage growth, real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 0.7% year-on-year in October, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline, as income growth has not kept pace with inflation [3] Monetary Policy Implications - The current economic data is unlikely to alter the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trajectory, which could increase social funding costs, weaken corporate investment willingness, and further dampen economic vitality, leading to a less optimistic economic outlook for Japan [3]

近日，日本内阁府公布的初步统计数据显示，今年三季度日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算降 幅达1.8%，自2024年一季度以来再度出现负增长。 专家指出，当前日本经济面临增长乏力、通胀高企、内需疲软、出口收缩等多重困境，结构性矛盾十分 突出。在此背景下，高市早苗政府日前推出的大规模经济刺激计划恐难奏效。此外，日本舆论还担忧， 高市早苗近日发表涉台错误言论，严重损害日中关系，破坏地区合作良好氛围，将使本就承压的日本经 济雪上加霜，四季度增长前景将面临较大不确定性。 从内部看，日本经济还存在诸多结构性问题：一是产业路线选择失误削弱竞争力，如在新能源汽车上押 注氢燃料，错失锂离子电池这一国际主流机遇；二是少子化老龄化问题突出，65岁以上人口占比近三 成，不仅导致劳动力短缺、部分企业因"用工荒"而倒闭，也制约消费市场扩容；三是国内通胀严重，加 之日元贬值导致进口商品价格上涨，输入性通胀持续加剧；四是社保开支攀升，导致财政资金捉襟见 肘；五是政府债务规模庞大，目前已占GDP约263%，财政能力被削弱且财政风险极高。 ■ 外患持续 内忧难解 当前日本经济可谓内外交困。从外部看，美国关税"大棒"令经济持续承压；从内部看 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024, amid multiple economic pressures including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, and insufficient international competitiveness [1] - Concerns are rising that Prime Minister Kishi's recent controversial remarks regarding Taiwan may further impact Japan-China relations, potentially leading to another quarter of negative economic growth [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - In the first half of FY2025 (April to September), Japan's exports to the U.S. dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 11.1 billion USD) [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] - Tariff increases alone are estimated to have caused a loss of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 9.6 billion USD) for Japan's seven major automotive manufacturers in the first half of FY2025 [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide effective support for the economy [3] - Core inflation reached 3% in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices, which continue to pressure household budgets [3] - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with small and micro enterprises (employing fewer than 10 people) making up about 90% of these bankruptcies [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The deterioration of Japan-China relations due to Kishi's remarks has negatively affected market sentiment, leading to declines in stock indices and sectors heavily reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4] - Economists warn that without stable economic ties with China, Japan may face severe economic recession amid rising prices, a depreciating yen, and weak growth [4]

Economic Overview - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The economy is facing challenges including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, insufficient international competitiveness, and increased tariffs from the US [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's goods and services exports fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively by 0.2 percentage points to economic growth [2] - Exports to the US in the first half of FY2025 (April to September) dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports also declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen [2] - Significant declines were noted in key sectors: automotive exports down by 7.5%, semiconductor manufacturing equipment by 49.6%, and pharmaceuticals by 30.8% [2] - The tariff increases alone have led to a loss of approximately 1.5 trillion yen (around 9.6 billion USD) for Japan's seven major automotive manufacturers in the first half of FY2025 [2] Domestic Economic Pressure - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption in Q3 saw a minimal increase of 0.1%, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, indicating weak economic support [3] - Core inflation reached 3% in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices [3] - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with small and micro enterprises being particularly affected [3] Geopolitical and Market Reactions - Recent controversial remarks by Prime Minister Suga regarding Taiwan have damaged Japan-China relations, negatively impacting trade and economic cooperation [4] - Concerns over deteriorating Japan-China relations have led to declines in Tokyo stock indices, particularly affecting sectors reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4] - Economists warn that without stable economic ties with China, Japan may face severe economic recession amid rising prices, yen depreciation, and weak growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's exports to the United States have been declining for seven consecutive months due to U.S. tariff policies, significantly impacting its trade balance and economic outlook [1] Export Performance - In October, Japan's exports to the U.S. decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 11.1 billion USD) [1] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by significant drops in three categories: automobiles (-7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (-49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (-30.8%) [1] - Although the decline in automobile exports has lessened, it remains the largest contributor to the overall decrease in exports to the U.S. [1] Trade Balance - Japan has experienced a trade deficit for four consecutive months, with a trade deficit of 231.8 billion yen in October [1] - Overall exports increased by 3.6% year-on-year to 9.766 trillion yen, while imports rose by 0.7% to 9.998 trillion yen [1] Economic Implications - Experts note that in 2024, exports of automobiles and auto parts are expected to account for about one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S., indicating the ongoing significant impact of U.S. tariff policies [1] - The persistent trade deficit, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, exacerbates the economic challenges faced by Japan [1]

Core Insights - Japan's exports to the United States have been declining for seven consecutive months since April 2023, primarily due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - In October, Japan's exports to the U.S. fell by 3.1% year-on-year to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 15.7 billion USD), with significant declines in automotive, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The trade deficit has persisted for four months, with October's trade deficit reaching 231.8 billion yen, despite an overall export increase of 3.6% to 9.7663 trillion yen [1] Export Performance - The decline in exports to the U.S. is largely attributed to a 7.5% decrease in automotive exports, a 49.6% drop in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and a 30.8% reduction in pharmaceuticals [1] - Automotive exports remain the largest factor contributing to the ongoing decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. [1] Trade Deficit Context - The continuous decline in exports to the U.S. has led to a trade deficit, which is a significant factor in the depreciation of the yen [1] - Exports to Asia and the European Union have increased, helping to offset some of the losses from U.S. exports [1]