Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming increasingly evident, with significant declines in both exports and imports reported for July 2023 [2][4][6]. Trade Data Summary - Japan's exports in July fell by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over four years and exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.1% drop [4]. - Imports decreased by 7.5%, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decline [4]. - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 795.5 million USD), contrasting with the expected surplus of 196.2 billion yen [4]. - Key export declines included automobiles (down 11.4%), steel (down 21%), and auto parts (down 12.1%) [4]. - Notably, exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1%, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [4][6]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the trade data release, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5% [5]. - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen over 9% year-to-date, may retreat to around 42,000 points by the end of the year [5]. Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, with the decline in automotive exports particularly pronounced [6]. - The automotive industry, a core sector of the Japanese economy, is expected to face broader negative impacts due to reduced exports, affecting related industries and regional economies [6]. - Preliminary statistics indicate that Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year in Q2 2023, but concerns remain regarding the potential negative effects of U.S. tariffs [6]. Economic Forecast - A survey of economists suggests that Japan's economy may enter negative growth in Q3 2023, with an expected GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized drop of 0.6% [7]. - Despite the negative outlook, a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% tariff rate and a commitment for Japan to invest 550 billion USD in the U.S., was announced by President Trump [7].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming increasingly evident, with significant declines in both exports and imports reported for July [1][3][5]. Trade Data Summary - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over four years and exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.1% drop [3]. - Imports decreased by 7.5%, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decline, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately $795.5 million) instead of a forecasted surplus [3]. - Key export declines included automobiles (down 11.4%), steel (down 21%), and auto parts (down 12.1%) [3]. - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1%, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [3][5]. - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. fell by 23.9% to 585.1 billion yen, continuing a three-month decline [3]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the trade data release, the Japanese stock market saw a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5% [4]. - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen over 9% this year, may retreat to around 42,000 points by the end of December [4]. Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, with the rate of decline increasing [5]. - The automotive sector, a core industry for Japan, has been significantly affected, with a reported 26.7% year-on-year decrease in automobile exports to the U.S. in June [5]. - The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP for Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, but cautioned about the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on future economic performance [5]. Economic Forecast - A survey of ten private economists indicated that six expect Japan's economy to enter negative growth in Q3, with an anticipated 0.1% decline in actual GDP quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decrease of 0.6% [6]. - A recent trade agreement announced by U.S. President Trump may provide some relief, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S., which is expected to create numerous jobs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of US tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming evident, with significant declines in trade figures and potential negative effects on the Japanese economy [1][7]. Trade Data Summary - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6%, exceeding expectations and marking the largest drop in over four years. Exports to the US decreased by 10.1%, with substantial declines in automotive and parts exports [2][5]. - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 795.5 million USD) in July, contrasting with a forecasted surplus of 196.2 billion yen. This was driven by a 11.4% drop in automotive exports and a 21% decrease in steel exports [5][6]. - Imports also saw a decline, with a 7.5% drop in July, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decrease. Key import reductions included crude oil (down 18%) and coal (down 28.5%) [5]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the release of trade data, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5%. Analysts predict a potential retreat of the index from recent highs, largely dependent on the fragile US-Japan trade agreement [6][2]. Economic Impact - The automotive sector, a crucial part of Japan's economy, is facing significant challenges due to reduced exports, which could negatively impact overall economic growth. The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [9]. - Economic forecasts suggest that Japan's economy may enter negative growth in Q3, with a projected GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by the ongoing effects of US tariff policies [9]. Tariff Policy Effects - The US tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the US, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports fell by 26.7% in June. The tariff rate on Japanese cars was raised from 2.5% to 27.5% [8][9]. - The Kyushu region experienced the most significant declines in automotive exports, with a staggering 67.8% drop in volume and a 76.3% decrease in value [8].

Group 1 - Japan has reached a bilateral agreement with the United States to lower tariffs, including auto tariffs, to 15%, serving as a reference for the EU negotiations [1][5] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of energy from the US and investing over $600 billion in the US as part of the trade agreement [1][2] - The agreement includes a zero-tariff commitment from the EU and a significant investment in defense equipment, although specific amounts have not been disclosed [2] Group 2 - The 15% tariff rate applies to various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, but the US is still considering new tariffs in these areas [3] - The agreement aims to alleviate trade tensions, as the US had previously threatened to raise tariffs on EU products to 30% [4] - The US is expected to continue negotiations with other major trading partners, including China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, and India, before the new tax rates take effect [6]

Group 1: Trade Statistics with the US - In April, Japan's exports to the US amounted to 1.7708 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.8%, marking the first decline in four months [1] - The decline in exports is attributed to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, including a 10% reciprocal tariff and a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles and steel [1] - Despite the decrease in export value, the volume of automobile exports increased by 11.8%, reaching 125,817 units, continuing a four-month growth trend [1] Group 2: Import Statistics from the US - Japan's imports from the US in April totaled 990.2 billion yen, a decrease of 11.6%, influenced by high-priced and volatile aircraft imports [2] - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports fell by 50.7%, and coal imports decreased by 43.8% [2] - The trade surplus with the US was 780.6 billion yen, an increase of 14.3%, continuing a four-month growth streak [2] Group 3: Overall Trade Balance - Japan experienced a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen in April, the first deficit in three months, with exports growing by 2.0% to 9.1571 trillion yen and imports decreasing by 2.2% to 9.273 trillion yen [2] - Exports of semiconductor electronic components, food, and pharmaceuticals increased, while coal and crude oil imports decreased [2] - Coal import volume decreased by 8.9%, and import value decreased by 38.6%, while crude oil import volume increased by 0.2% but value decreased by 10.1% [4]

Core Insights - Japan's exports to the US in April amounted to 1.7708 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.8%, marking the first decline in four months, potentially influenced by the tariffs initiated by the Trump administration [1] - The export value of automobiles from Japan to the US was 513 billion yen, down 4.8%, although the export volume increased by 11.8% to 125,817 units, continuing a four-month growth trend [1] - Japan's trade surplus with the US reached 780.6 billion yen, an increase of 14.3%, continuing a four-month growth streak [2] Summary by Sections Exports to the US - In April, Japan's total exports to the US were 1.7708 trillion yen, down 1.8% year-on-year, the first decline in four months [1] - The automobile export value was 513 billion yen, a decrease of 4.8%, while the export volume rose by 11.8% to 125,817 units [1] - Steel exports fell to 18 billion yen, down 29.0%, with a volume decrease of 20.3% [1] Imports from the US - Japan's imports from the US in April totaled 990.2 billion yen, a decrease of 11.6%, primarily due to reduced imports of high-priced and volatile items like aircraft [2] - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports dropped by 50.7%, and coal imports decreased by 43.8% [2] Overall Trade Balance - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen in April, the first deficit in three months, with exports growing by 2.0% to 9.1571 trillion yen and imports decreasing by 2.2% to 9.273 trillion yen [2] - Exports of semiconductor electronic components, food, and pharmaceuticals increased, while coal and crude oil imports decreased [2] - Coal import volume fell by 8.9%, with a value decrease of 38.6%, while crude oil import volume increased by 0.2%, but the value decreased by 10.1% [2]

特朗普总统在总统专机上表示，对等关税针对所有国家（REUTERS） 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 当记者问及对等关税的对象国家数量时，特朗普回答称："是我们谈到的所有国家"。关于税率表 示："将比（美国的贸易伙伴）对我们征收的关税要宽松得多"，但没有透露具体的水平。 特朗普3月24日曾表示："可能会给许多国家喘息机会"，暗示将采取对等关税的豁免措施。 白宫高级顾问纳瓦罗3月30日在接受福克斯新闻网（Fox News）采访时表示，通过对等关税等今 后公布的新关税，预计10年内税收将达到6万亿美元。但没有说明这一数据的依据。特朗普还表 示，除了对等关税之外，还有意对医药品和半导体等各类产品征收关税。 美国媒体《华盛顿邮报》3月29日报道称，特朗普最近再次在讨论中提出了对全世界征收关税 的"统一关税"构想。 该报和美国《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普之前正在敦促其亲信讨论"更广泛地征收高关税"的方 案。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿 特朗普曾表示"可能会给许多国家喘息机会"，暗示将采取对等关税的豁 ...