近年来，日元持续贬值引发输入性通胀，生活成本不断攀升成为民众最直接的现实压力。然而，日本政 府的应对政策多为短期措施，缺乏系统性与前瞻性。再加上长期经济停滞、实际工资连年下滑、少子化 高龄化带来的社会保障压力与劳动力短缺等结构性难题，所有这些共同导致了日本国内深层次的民生挑 战。 专注日本文化与外交研究的上海政法学院副教授孙盛囡对《环球时报》记者分析说，高市阵营主要通过 三种手段获取民众信任。 第一，利用政治混乱焦虑，打造 " 政治强人 " 形象。 此前日本频繁更换首相使 民众对政局不稳感到厌倦，高市通过打造"强硬、不动摇"的政治形象，将这种厌倦转化为对"强力领 袖"的渴望；高市还强化"首位女首相"的革新形象，对冲民众对自民党黑金腐败、体制僵化的印象。 第 二，利用经济民生焦虑，拿 " 限时免税 " 置换选票。 面对民生痛点，自民党抛出"两年内食品消费税归 零"承诺，拉拢家庭主妇和低收入群体，对冲民众对经济增长乏力、通胀高企的不满。 第三，利用地缘 安全焦虑，强化 " 唯一守护者 " 叙事。 高市极力渲染外部地缘风险，将自民党包装为"国家安全的唯一屏 障"，将民众的不安全感引导为对执政党的依赖与支持。 据《环 ...

据环球网报道，最新的民意调查结果显示，日本民众对高市内阁的支持率大幅下跌，较上一次民调减少 10%。报道称，高市早苗解散众议院的决定引发日本民众的不满。 据报道，在1月24日、25日举行的民意调查中，高市内阁的支持率跌至57%，较去年12月20日、21日实 施的上一次民意调查下跌10%。据报道，对于高市解散众议院这一决定，有41%的受访者表示"不赞 同"，27%表示"赞同"，31%的受访者回答"不清楚"。 高市1月23日宣布解散众议院并决定于2月8日重新举行选举。选举在即，其个人支持率却出现下降之 势，对于赌上了政治生命的高市来说无疑是个警讯。 一场打时间差的政治豪赌 提前举行众议院选举是日本执政党为巩固权力经常使用的手段。最近10年，安倍晋三、岸田文雄均曾在 首相任期中途解散众议院提前选举。 但高市早苗此次提前选举仍然创下了若干纪录。此次解散众议院，是1966年以来日本首次在国会例会期 间解散众议院，也是二战以来第二次。 高市此举，显然是为了逃避国会例会期间势必遭遇的追责。然而，国会例会本是要审议年度预算案，高 市为逃避追责不惜把国家预算案置于脑后，难怪在野党阵营批评她"自私自利，罔顾民生"。 高市解散众议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing crisis in Japan's bond market, drawing parallels to historical fiscal challenges faced by the country, particularly from 1975 to 2000, as analyzed in the book "Japan's Fiscal Crisis: Efforts to Escape the Crisis through Systemic Mechanism Reform (1975-2000)" [4][8]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Crisis - The recent auction of Japan's 40-year bonds ended poorly, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.21, the lowest in 11 months, amid rising long-term bond yields [4]. - The current turmoil in Japan's bond market is linked to historical fiscal issues, suggesting a cyclical nature of the crisis [4][8]. - The book provides insights into Japan's fiscal crisis from 1975 to 2000, highlighting structural flaws in the budget system that are relevant to understanding today's challenges [4][8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Mechanisms - The Bank of Japan's quantitative easing (QE) policy, initiated in the early 2000s, evolved from the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) established in the 1970s, which aimed to support public sector financing [5][6]. - As of December 2022, the Bank of Japan held 52% of the national debt, indicating a non-market approach to maintaining debt circulation, which has led to market instability following a reduction in bond purchases [6][10]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Spending Patterns - Japan's reliance on public works spending has shifted to social security expenditures, with social security spending constituting 35% of the fiscal budget in 2023, reflecting a new rigid spending trap [7][8]. - The historical pattern of "public works state" has transformed into a "social security dependency," perpetuating the relationship between interest groups and bureaucratic systems [7][8]. Group 4: Political Dynamics and Reform Challenges - The political landscape in Japan is characterized by policy rigidity and entrenched interests, making structural reforms difficult despite repeated attempts by the government [11][12]. - The lack of political consensus on fiscal reforms, as evidenced by stalled negotiations on income tax thresholds, mirrors the challenges faced in the 1990s [11][12]. Group 5: Lessons and Implications for Global Policy - The unique aspects of Japan's fiscal crisis, including policy rigidity and entrenched interests, offer lessons for global policymakers, emphasizing the need for structural reforms alongside fiscal expansion [12][13]. - Effective budget constraints and breaking the cycle of bureaucratic and political entrenchment are essential for achieving sustainable fiscal recovery [12][13].