对于石破茂所在的自民党与公明党执政联盟而言，在拥有75个不纳入改选的议席基础上，要在参议院选举中维 持多数地位，需要在248席中超过124席，也就是至少需要获得50席。 最终结果显示，执政的自公联盟仅获得47个议席，加上非改选议席后在参议院的议席总数为122个，距离过半数 仅差3票；而日本立宪民主党、日本维新会、国民民主党、社民党等在野党以及无党派人士获得78个议席，加上 非改选议席，在野势力达到126席。 这一结果意味着，不到一年的时间内，日本首相石破茂所带领的执政联盟连续失去参众两院的多数议席，在参 众两院均沦为"少数派"的政党。 据央视新闻记者当地时间20日获悉，石破茂表达了继续执政的意愿。 此次选举后，日本政坛将再一次迎来动荡和混乱的"战国时代"，未来日本内政外交政策的不确定性会逐渐增 加。 3票之差，日本首相石破茂的执政已变得岌岌可危。 据央视新闻报道，在20日举行的日本第27届参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟丧失参议院过半 数议席。这是自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在国会众参两院都未能取得过半数席位。 本次选举围绕125个议席展开角逐，其中包括例行改选的124席，以及因东京选区议席空 ...

Core Points - The ruling coalition in Japan faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, losing its majority for the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was established in 1955 [1][2] - Prime Minister Kishida expressed his intention to continue governing despite the electoral setback, emphasizing his responsibility as the leader of the largest party in the National Diet [1][2] - The rise of the new right-wing party "Reform Party," which advocates for limiting immigration and prioritizing Japanese citizens, signals a shift towards a more right-leaning political landscape in Japan [1][5] Election Results - The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secured only 46 seats in the election, totaling 121 seats, falling short of the 124 seats needed for a majority in the 248-seat House of Councillors [2] - This election loss follows previous defeats in the House of Representatives and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, further complicating Kishida's governance [2] Political Implications - The election results may lead to a political crisis, with potential scenarios including a coalition government restructuring or a change in leadership [2] - Despite the losses, the Prime Minister may still remain in office due to the lack of a requirement for a prime ministerial election following the House of Councillors election [2] Public Sentiment - Public support for Kishida's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, indicating a significant loss of confidence among voters [3] - The government's failure to address pressing issues such as inflation and immigration has been identified as a key factor in the electoral defeat [3] Rise of Populism - The "Reform Party," which emerged as a significant political force, is expected to gain between 10 to 22 seats, a substantial increase from its previous single seat [5] - The party's anti-immigration stance resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, with 79% of voters supporting stricter measures against foreigners [5] Trade Negotiation Impact - The electoral defeat of Kishida's government is likely to complicate ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, particularly regarding sensitive sectors like agriculture and automotive [6] - The weakened position of Kishida may hinder his ability to secure legislative support for any trade agreements, especially those involving concessions [6]

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is likely to struggle to secure the 50 seats needed for a majority in the Japanese Senate elections, marking a potential unprecedented situation where the coalition becomes a minority in both houses for the first time since World War II [1][4][5] - The LDP and Komeito currently hold 141 seats in the Senate, with 75 non-contested seats and 66 contested seats in this election, needing to win at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [4][5] - The election is seen as a critical test for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who has faced significant challenges following previous electoral defeats [1][6] Group 2 - Exit polls indicate that the LDP and Komeito coalition may not secure the necessary seats, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is projected to gain seats [5][6] - The rise of the far-right party "Sanjin Party," which promotes a nationalist agenda, has garnered significant attention and support, reflecting a shift towards more extreme political sentiments in Japan [1][9][10] - The political landscape is shifting, with increasing public support for nationalist and exclusionary policies, as evidenced by a survey showing 79% of voters favoring stricter measures against foreigners [9][10] Group 3 - Kishida's administration faces declining approval ratings, with a recent poll showing support at 20.8%, the lowest since taking office, indicating a potential crisis of confidence in his leadership [6][7] - The political environment may lead to a reshuffling of the ruling coalition or even a change in leadership, as historical precedents suggest that poor performance in Senate elections can lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister [7][8] - Economic pressures, including rising consumer prices and external trade challenges, are contributing to the political turmoil and dissatisfaction among voters [8][10]