专家：必须坚决阻击日本右翼势力妄图复活军国主义的危险动向 新华社记者朱超、董雪、黄扬 日本首相高市早苗日前妄称"台湾有事"可能对日本构成"存亡危机事态"，暗示可能以行使所谓"集 体自卫权"为由，武力介入台湾问题，性质影响极其恶劣，引起中国人民强烈愤慨和各国有识之士 广泛反对。专家表示，国际社会必须高度警惕日本借"台湾有事就是日本有事"公然破坏战后国际 秩序、复活军国主义的危险动向。 中国国际问题研究院亚太研究所特聘研究员项昊宇指出，高市早苗作为日本现任首相，在国会答 辩正式场合发表上述言论并非偶然事件，而是日本右翼势力企图借渲染"中国威胁论"和台海紧张 局势，为摆脱战后"和平宪法"束缚、推动再军事化寻找借口的最新反映。日本在这方面的危险动 向必须引起各方高度关注。 中国国际问题研究院副研究员苏晓晖认为，高市近期错误言论的动因主要有二：其一，出于个人 政治需要，为巩固其执政地位而迎合国内右翼势力；其二，更深层次反映了日本政治右倾化持续 加剧的总体趋势。其最终目的在于突破"专守防卫"原则。日方的倒行逆施将对地区安全构成严重 威胁。 日本曾经在第二次世界大战中发动侵略战争。《波茨坦公告》明确规定日本"完全解除武装" ...

近日，日本首相高市早苗在台湾问题上发表突破底线的挑衅性言论，公然挑战一个中国原则，甚至暗示 日本要军事介入台海问题。这是1945年战败以后，日本领导人首次对华发出武力威胁，震惊国际社会。 高市的言论绝非孤立的"失言"事件，而是日本政治光谱加速右移的必然结果。相关言行，深刻地揭示了 战后长期被压抑的右翼保守"基因"正在被重新激活，并与国力衰退背景下的民粹主义情绪相结合，共同 推动日本政治生态发生结构性质变。 右翼"基因"的政治显性化 高市早苗的强硬右翼姿态，受到她所忠实继承和极力推进的日本国粹主义意识形态的驱动。这股思潮源 于战前的"皇国史观"，以否定近代以来日本对外发动战争的侵略性质，拒绝接受东京审判结果为基本认 知前提，在政治思想层面主张摆脱反省侵略历史的"自虐史观"，恢复大和民族的"自豪与尊严"，重新找 回日本的强国荣光。在政策路线层面，则以"摆脱战后体制"为核心，以推动修宪、实现国家"正常化"为 目标。这股政治思潮在战后的日本始终存在，只不过在以"重经济、轻武装"的"吉田主义"占据主流的冷 战时期，右翼思潮只能居于政坛的边缘角落。 上世纪80、90年代，日本经济盛极一时，叠加冷战的终结，日本不再满足于" ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's recent remarks in the National Diet regarding Taiwan have sparked global outrage, suggesting that a "crisis" in Taiwan could pose an existential threat to Japan, indicating a potential for military intervention in the Taiwan Strait [1][2][3] Group 1: Definition and Implications of "Existential Crisis" - The term "existential crisis" was introduced by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2015 through the "New Security Law," which allows for collective self-defense even if Japan is not directly attacked [2][3] - Kishida's comments directly link the situation in Taiwan to Japan's security framework, marking a significant shift in Japan's political stance and raising concerns about military involvement in Taiwan [3][4] Group 2: Political Trends in Japan - The remarks reflect a broader trend of rightward shift in Japanese politics, with Kishida's government attempting to justify increased defense spending and military expansion under the guise of a "China threat" narrative [5][6][7] - Historical parallels are drawn to Japan's militaristic past, with concerns that such rhetoric could lead to a resurgence of militarism and aggressive foreign policy [7][8] Group 3: Regional and International Reactions - Kishida's statements have drawn criticism from various quarters, including former Japanese leaders and international observers, who warn that such rhetoric could destabilize the region and provoke military tensions [9][10] - The Chinese government has firmly rejected these comments, emphasizing that Taiwan is a core interest and any external interference is unacceptable [9][10][11] Group 4: Potential Consequences - Continued provocative statements from Japan could lead to increased geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, potentially igniting an arms race and undermining regional stability [9][10][11] - The domestic political landscape in Japan may also be affected, as public sentiment could shift against militaristic policies, contrasting with the government's current trajectory [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's provocative remarks regarding Taiwan have escalated tensions between China and Japan, leading to strong protests from China and concerns about the impact on bilateral relations [1][2][7] Group 1: Japan's Provocative Statements - Kishida's comments suggest potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, marking a significant shift in Japan's stance since World War II [2] - Experts highlight that these remarks represent a severe provocation and a breach of the One China principle, undermining the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations [2][4] - The statements are seen as a challenge to the post-World War II international order and have drawn criticism from various sectors within Japan [2][7] Group 2: Historical Context and Political Implications - Kishida's rhetoric is viewed as a continuation of right-wing policies reminiscent of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with an emphasis on military expansion and revision of Japan's pacifist constitution [3][5] - The remarks coincide with significant anniversaries related to China's anti-Japanese war efforts, further intensifying the historical sensitivities involved [2][5] - Analysts warn that Japan's increasing militarization and attempts to internationalize the Taiwan issue could destabilize regional peace and security [4][5] Group 3: Domestic Reactions in Japan - Kishida's statements have sparked backlash from various political figures and intellectuals in Japan, who express concerns over the legal and security implications of such rhetoric [6][7] - The current situation is described as a critical juncture for Sino-Japanese relations, with potential negative impacts on economic and cultural exchanges [7] - Experts urge Japan to correct its course to mitigate the adverse effects of Kishida's comments on bilateral relations [7]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's provocative remarks regarding Taiwan have escalated tensions between China and Japan, with China expressing strong dissatisfaction and opposition to Japan's stance [1][3][5]. Group 1: Japan's Provocative Statements - Kishida is the first Japanese Prime Minister since World War II to publicly assert that "Taiwan's issues are Japan's issues," linking it to collective self-defense [3]. - Experts indicate that Kishida's comments represent a severe provocation and a blatant challenge to the post-World War II international order [3][5]. - The remarks are seen as a significant breach of the One China principle and a serious interference in China's internal affairs [7][10]. Group 2: Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations - The statements have caused a serious impact on Sino-Japanese relations, marking the most severe provocation since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1972 [5][10]. - The political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations has been severely undermined, affecting cooperation in various fields, including trade and cultural exchanges [15]. - Experts warn that Japan's actions are attempting to internationalize the Taiwan issue, which could lead to increased regional tensions [10][12]. Group 3: Domestic Reactions in Japan - Kishida's remarks have sparked significant backlash within Japan, with many politicians and intellectuals expressing concern over the potential risks to regional security and the future of Sino-Japanese relations [13][15]. - There is a growing apprehension among Japanese citizens and officials regarding the implications of Kishida's statements on Japan's long-term national interests [15].

Core Points - The political landscape in Japan has become chaotic following the Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to a potential challenge against LDP President Takashi Saito from three opposition parties [1][2] - Takashi Saito has expressed optimism about becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister after the LDP reached an agreement with the Japan Innovation Party for a coalition [1][2] Group 1 - Following the split with Komeito, Saito has been actively seeking to expand the ruling coalition by engaging with the National Democratic Party, although their interest has waned due to the lack of a majority [2][4] - The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party are set to sign a coalition agreement on the 20th, with a temporary Diet session scheduled for the 21st to elect the Prime Minister [4] - The current composition of the House of Representatives includes 465 seats, with the LDP holding 196 seats, and a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party would bring them to 231 seats, just two short of a majority [4] Group 2 - The Japan Innovation Party has proposed 12 cooperation demands, including lowering the consumption tax rate and addressing political funding issues, which have been met with positive responses from the LDP [2][3] - The Japan Innovation Party has decided to halt cooperation discussions with the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party, citing difficulties in collaboration [3][5] - The last time an opposition party successfully overthrew the LDP was in August 2009, marking a significant political shift in Japan [6] Group 3 - The Japan Innovation Party aims to establish Osaka as a "secondary capital," a key policy goal that is essential for their collaboration with other parties [7] - Saito has indicated a willingness to assist in cabinet roles if a coalition is formed, although the Japan Innovation Party prefers an "outside cabinet cooperation" approach to maintain flexibility [7][8] - There are concerns within both the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party regarding the potential backlash from their respective members due to the rapid coalition-building efforts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese Senate election has resulted in a significant loss for the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Kishida, marking a shift towards a "minority" status in both houses of parliament, which may lead to increased political instability and uncertainty in Japan's domestic and foreign policies [2][11]. Election Results - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost its majority in the House of Councillors, securing only 47 out of 125 contested seats, falling short of the 50 seats needed to maintain a majority [2][6]. - This election marks the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955 that it has failed to secure a majority in both houses of parliament [2]. Voter Sentiment and Political Dynamics - Voter focus has shifted from "dark money" politics to economic policies, inflation, and foreign policy, reflecting a growing disinterest in politics among the electorate [6]. - The dissatisfaction with rising prices and stagnant wages has led to increased support for smaller parties, with the right-wing Sanseito party gaining significant traction, increasing its seats from 2 to 14 [6][7]. Leadership Challenges - Prime Minister Kishida's administration faces declining approval ratings, with support dropping to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, and a disapproval rate rising to 55% [7][9]. - Internal dissent within the LDP is growing, with factions indicating they will not support Kishida's continued leadership, suggesting a potential leadership challenge [9][10]. Future Political Landscape - Experts predict that regardless of whether Kishida resigns, the ruling coalition will encounter significant challenges in parliament, potentially leading to a political deadlock [11]. - The rise of populist conservative forces, exemplified by the Sanseito party, indicates a possible shift in Japan's political spectrum towards more conservative and right-leaning policies [11].

Core Points - The ruling coalition in Japan faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, losing its majority for the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was established in 1955 [1][2] - Prime Minister Kishida expressed his intention to continue governing despite the electoral setback, emphasizing his responsibility as the leader of the largest party in the National Diet [1][2] - The rise of the new right-wing party "Reform Party," which advocates for limiting immigration and prioritizing Japanese citizens, signals a shift towards a more right-leaning political landscape in Japan [1][5] Election Results - The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secured only 46 seats in the election, totaling 121 seats, falling short of the 124 seats needed for a majority in the 248-seat House of Councillors [2] - This election loss follows previous defeats in the House of Representatives and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, further complicating Kishida's governance [2] Political Implications - The election results may lead to a political crisis, with potential scenarios including a coalition government restructuring or a change in leadership [2] - Despite the losses, the Prime Minister may still remain in office due to the lack of a requirement for a prime ministerial election following the House of Councillors election [2] Public Sentiment - Public support for Kishida's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, indicating a significant loss of confidence among voters [3] - The government's failure to address pressing issues such as inflation and immigration has been identified as a key factor in the electoral defeat [3] Rise of Populism - The "Reform Party," which emerged as a significant political force, is expected to gain between 10 to 22 seats, a substantial increase from its previous single seat [5] - The party's anti-immigration stance resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, with 79% of voters supporting stricter measures against foreigners [5] Trade Negotiation Impact - The electoral defeat of Kishida's government is likely to complicate ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, particularly regarding sensitive sectors like agriculture and automotive [6] - The weakened position of Kishida may hinder his ability to secure legislative support for any trade agreements, especially those involving concessions [6]

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is likely to struggle to secure the 50 seats needed for a majority in the Japanese Senate elections, marking a potential unprecedented situation where the coalition becomes a minority in both houses for the first time since World War II [1][4][5] - The LDP and Komeito currently hold 141 seats in the Senate, with 75 non-contested seats and 66 contested seats in this election, needing to win at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [4][5] - The election is seen as a critical test for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who has faced significant challenges following previous electoral defeats [1][6] Group 2 - Exit polls indicate that the LDP and Komeito coalition may not secure the necessary seats, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is projected to gain seats [5][6] - The rise of the far-right party "Sanjin Party," which promotes a nationalist agenda, has garnered significant attention and support, reflecting a shift towards more extreme political sentiments in Japan [1][9][10] - The political landscape is shifting, with increasing public support for nationalist and exclusionary policies, as evidenced by a survey showing 79% of voters favoring stricter measures against foreigners [9][10] Group 3 - Kishida's administration faces declining approval ratings, with a recent poll showing support at 20.8%, the lowest since taking office, indicating a potential crisis of confidence in his leadership [6][7] - The political environment may lead to a reshuffling of the ruling coalition or even a change in leadership, as historical precedents suggest that poor performance in Senate elections can lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister [7][8] - Economic pressures, including rising consumer prices and external trade challenges, are contributing to the political turmoil and dissatisfaction among voters [8][10]