历时数周的下一任美联储主席候选人面试已经结束，特朗普即将从沃什、沃勒、哈塞特和Rick Rieder四 大热门人选中做出最终决定。 10月9日，据英国金融时报消息，美国财长贝森特完成了对美联储主席候选人的最后一轮面试，为期数 周的筛选程序于周二结束，共有11名候选人接受了这一全球最重要金融机构掌门人职位的考察。 知情人士透露，贝森特在面试中重点询问了候选人对利率政策的立场，以及如何处理危机时期量化宽松 政策的退出问题。候选人们接受了长达两小时的严格质询，面试官包括贝森特、财政部官员Hunter McMaster和顾问Francis Browne。 报道指出，特朗普将在最终面试轮次后做出最终决定。他此前表示，最青睐的候选人包括前美联储理事 凯文·沃什、现任理事沃勒以及白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特。贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder 作为外部候选人，在面试中表现"非常出色"。 贝森特质询聚焦央行改革议程 面试过程中，贝森特重点考察了候选人对美联储结构性改革的看法。据参与面试的人士透露，贝森特询 问候选人对他近期发表文章中提出观点的意见，该文呼吁对央行进行全面改革，并批评量化宽松计划 是"功能获得性货币 ...

在此关键节点，某主要经济体连续四个月增持美债，其中10月单月购入量达659亿美元，12月再增143亿，使持有总量突破 6962亿美元，成为全球最大美债持有方。该国2008年外汇储备总额为1.95万亿美元，美债占比超三分之一，相当于将三分之 一家底用于支撑他国金融稳定。 然而危机缓解后，该国政策迅速转向。先是在贸易领域设置多重壁垒，随后升级为关税冲突，全然忽视此前获得的金融支 持。这种"危难时求助、稳定后施压"的双重标准，引发国际社会对经济政策可信度的质疑。 近年来，某国经济政策呈现矛盾特质：既在危机时刻依赖外部支持稳定金融体系，又持续对主要经济伙伴实施遏制战略。 2008年全球金融危机期间，该国金融系统濒临崩溃，美联储启动多轮量化宽松政策，政府债务规模急剧攀升。当时国际市场 对美债信心跌至谷底，多国央行选择减持避险。 分析人士指出，国际经济合作应遵循互惠原则，单方面索取与遏制并存的模式难以持续。当前全球经济复苏基础仍显脆弱， 主要经济体更需展现责任担当，而非将合作对象视为战略对手。历史经验表明，只有秉持平等互利态度，才能构建稳定的国 际经济秩序。与狼共舞必须成为吃人的狼，而不是羊！ ...

希夫表示："如果埃里克相信这一点，他的父亲很可能也相信。"这暗示小特朗普的言论或许反映了总统 本人对货币政策的看法。他还补充称，这一预测"很能说明总统对美联储的规划"，而美联储正处于重大 权力更迭的边缘。 华尔街大鳄、SchiffGold董事长彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）对美国总统特朗普（Donald Trump）之子埃里 克·特朗普（Eric Trump）近期的言论表示担忧，称其或许反映了白宫对美国经济状况的整体看法。 上周日，希夫在X平台上发文，就埃里克预测美联储将很快重启量化宽松政策这一观点发表了评论。量 化宽松政策即央行通过购买债券向经济体注入流动性的政策。 在回复帖子下的一条评论时，希夫称他认为埃里克"掌握内部信息"，并补充道"特朗普和他的儿子们关 系非常密切"。 上周，埃里克在接受《纽约邮报》的NYNEXT播客采访时预测，在"量化宽松、全球货币供应扩大以及 第四季度加密货币季节性强势的推动下，比特币的价格将上涨至100万美元。 此前一周，埃里克就美联储降息发表过类似言论，他表示："我认为（比特币价格）可能会飙升。"这与 预测市场的押注相悖，后者预测本月比特币价格极有可能维持在10.7万美 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market possesses dual attributes as both an industrial and precious metal, with over 60% of its demand stemming from industrial uses, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector [2][4][8] - The development of the PV industry significantly impacts silver demand, necessitating close attention to applications in PV and conductive materials, as well as macroeconomic factors like central bank policies and the dollar's performance [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite recent increases in silver prices, investor sentiment remains disappointed due to silver's higher short-term volatility compared to gold and a slowdown in PV demand growth, which raises concerns about future price trajectories [2][8] - The price relationship between silver and gold remains fundamentally unchanged, indicating a strong correlation where silver has not diverged from gold's trends [2][9] - Historical patterns suggest that surges in silver prices often signal the end of a precious metals bull market and a potential hard landing for the U.S. economy, which could lead to rapid price increases following quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - The current market is viewed as being in a "catch-up" phase, where silver prices are expected to rise alongside a continuing gold bull market, albeit at a slower pace than during a full bull run [2][18] Important but Overlooked Content - The silver market has shown an upward trend despite not meeting the high expectations set for it, particularly in the context of the ongoing gold bull market, which has seen gold prices approach $3,500 [6][12] - The interplay between silver and gold prices is influenced by broader economic conditions, including the potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy and subsequent monetary policy responses [10][21] - The demand for silver in industrial applications, especially in the PV sector, is critical for its price outlook, and any shortfall in this demand could adversely affect silver prices [10][32] - The concept of "hidden inventory" in the silver market complicates price predictions, as fluctuations in this inventory do not always correlate directly with market prices [29][31] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of silver prices will depend on multiple factors, including the development of the PV industry, global macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of related precious metals markets like gold and platinum [7][21] - The potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy remains a key factor that could trigger significant price movements in silver, similar to past market behaviors [13][14] - Investors are advised to focus on the overall trend in precious metals rather than short-term fluctuations, as the long-term outlook remains positive amid ongoing gold market strength [20][22]

新华财经北京9月25日电（崔凯）日本央行25日公布的货币政策会议纪要显示，多位政策委员对当前经 济与通胀形势表达了审慎乐观，但内部对货币政策正常化的节奏存在明显分歧。 9月19日，日本央行货币政策会议以7比2的投票结果决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，连续第五次会议按 兵不动，符合市场预期。同时，该行全票通过将开始出售所持交易所交易基金（ETF）及日本房地产投 资信托（J-REIT），出售规模原则上将与"从金融机构购入股票"的规模大体相当，并强调避免对金融市 场造成不稳定影响。 本次议息会议最显著的特征在于"静态平衡"表象下的动态调整。尽管维持利率不变，但日本央行同步启 动ETF抛售机制，标志着量化宽松政策的实质性收缩。据政策声明，此次资产处置将遵循"避免市场动 荡"原则，规模与金融机构股票购入量大体相当。 多位委员表达了类似观点。一位委员表示，若通胀率持续高于2%较长时间，日本央行应适时调整货币 政策支持力度；另一委员则强调，"从风险管理角度看，在适当的时候加息至关重要"，并主张"应尽可 能尽早加息"，因当前政策利率已低于中性区间，过度谨慎恐错失时机。 然而，亦有委员提醒需保持耐心。一位委员指出，日本央行在做 ...

Looking at how safe havens have performed so far this year, one thing is clear: fear is driving markets. With Donald Trump as US President, tariffs were swiftly rolled out, and businesses, even nations, had to shield themselves from uncertainty. This flight to safety has funneled trillions of dollars into bonds, high-quality equities, crypto, and gold. BTC USD rocketed to new all-time highs in August, breaking $124,500, but gold has truly stolen the show with its relentless climb. In 2025, gold prices hav ...

但真正的震动来自日本央行的突然表态，虽然日本央行维持了基准利率不变，但其释放的信号却让华尔街感到前所未有的担忧。 关键在于，日本央行决定开始逐步减持其庞大的资产组合，这一动作看似温和，实则蕴含着足以撼动全球金融体系的巨大能量。 华盛顿的庆祝活动注定短暂，美联储宣布9月份降息决定"目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计2025年仅会降息一次"。 在此之前，特朗普已通过其社交媒体平台Truth Social发文，直接呼吁鲍威尔降低美联储的短期利率，并使用了极具煽动性的措辞："鲍威尔的解雇刻不容 缓！" 要知道，过去十多年来，日本央行为了对抗通缩而实施的量化宽松政策，实际上成为了美国金融市场流动性的重要支撑。 这些资金购买美国国债、投资美国股市，实质上成为支撑美国金融繁荣的隐形支柱，如今日本央行选择改变这一策略，等于是在向美国金融市场发出断供的 明确警告。 市场的反应比预期更加剧烈，日本股市在央行决议公布后出现显著波动，而更关键的是日元汇率的异常表现。 当日元开始走强时，那些长期建立在日元弱势基础上的套息交易策略将面临毁灭性冲击，这种变化不仅会直接影响国际资本的流向，更可能引发全球金融市 场的连锁反应。 美联储内部的分歧 ...

今天（9月19日），日元突然大幅走强，日本股市一度跳水1.6%。亚洲市场也跟随杀跌，恒生科技指数午后明显回 调，韩国股指持续走弱。A股午后也显著走弱。那么，究竟发生了什么？ 分析人士认为，日本央行表示将逐步开始出售其持有的国内股票交易所交易基金。尽管日本央行维持政策利率不变， 但此举表明，尽管人们对美国关税和全球经济影响的担忧日益加剧，日本央行仍将继续收紧政策。日本央行发布政策 决定后，亚太股市受到明显拖累。 日本飞出"黑天鹅" 9月19日，日本央行在最新的政策会议上决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，这已是日本央行连续第五次会议按兵不动， 符合市场预期。但日本央行表示将逐步开始出售其持有的国内股票交易所交易基金。这引发了股市动荡。日经指数一 度杀跌1.6%，印度Nifty50指数跌0.4%，东南亚股指普遍杀跌。 美元兑日元亦大幅走低，这也是引发权益市场动荡的主要原因之一。 在日本央行发出鹰派立场后，日元走强。StoneX的马特·辛普森表示，虽然日本央行按预期维持利率不变，但央行宣布 开始平仓超大ETF和房地产投资信托基金持有量。这标志着日本从安倍经济学时代的超宽松政策迈出了重要且具有象 征意义的一步。这位高级市 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to gradually start selling its holdings of domestic exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating a tightening of monetary policy despite maintaining the policy interest rate at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting [3][6] - Following the BOJ's announcement, the Japanese yen strengthened significantly, leading to a drop in the Nikkei index by 1.6% and causing a ripple effect across Asian markets, including declines in the Hang Seng Tech Index and South Korean stock indices [1][3][4] - Analysts suggest that the BOJ's move marks a significant step away from the ultra-loose monetary policies of the Abe administration, potentially signaling an interest rate hike in October [6][8] Group 2 - The BOJ's hawkish stance has led to expectations of a potential interest rate increase, with a survey indicating that most observers anticipate a rate hike before January next year, and market expectations of a 58% chance of a rate increase by the end of the year [6][9] - The normalization of monetary policy, including interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, is expected to exert upward pressure on the yen, which could lead to the unwinding of carry trade positions [8][9] - Historical data shows that past reversals of yen-funded carry trades have led to yen appreciation, declines in U.S. Treasury yields, and upward pressure on gold prices, while putting pressure on equity and commodity markets [8][9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the disappointing U.S. employment data for August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [1] - The unexpected employment data has increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and potentially more cuts throughout the year [1] - Following the employment report, there was a notable influx of capital into the gold market, pushing the London spot gold price to around $3,600 per ounce, marking the first time it reached this level [1] Group 2 - The non-farm data serves as a significant bullish stimulus for the gold market, which has been in a bullish trend since August 26, coinciding with Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference [3] - Following Powell's speech, subsequent U.S. economic data has supported expectations for a new round of quantitative easing, and the largest gold ETF has seen continuous inflows [3] - Geopolitical developments, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, complex Middle East situations, and U.S. military deployments in Latin America, are providing additional support for gold bulls [3] Group 3 - Technically, international gold prices have experienced a four-month consolidation since April, successfully breaking through the previous historical high of $3,500 per ounce, indicating the start of a new upward trend [5] - Market sentiment has shifted from divergence to a consensus bullish outlook, with potential targets for gold prices projected to reach around $3,733 per ounce, and possibly even $4,000 per ounce [5] - The current phase of international gold prices is seen as the early stage of a new bullish trend, suggesting a need to align with market movements to mitigate risks [5]