货币政策通过改变亿万个微观个体的互动行为扩大总需求，关键在于两点：一个是引导市场 预期，二是让企业和居民能算过来账 文｜张斌 编辑｜张威 货币政策通过改变亿万个微观个体的互动行为扩大内需。 让企业愿意投资，让居民愿意买房和消费，需要两个改变：一个是改变对未来的预期，一个是让企业和 居民能算过来账。实现这两个改变的关键在于央行对通胀目标更坚决地表态，更大幅度降低政策利率。 货币政策通过改变预期、改变企业投资和居民消费购房的激励机制，撬动市场自发的力量扩大内需。财 政政策则是通过政府增加支出及其带来的乘数效应扩大内需。 上世纪90年代以来，中央银行成为扩大内需政策的主力军，多数情况下仅依靠货币政策就足以扩大内 需，有些特殊情况下货币政策与财政政策协力扩大内需。 大胆的央行 央行管理的是信用，信用的背后是信心。央行不喜欢给世人留下大胆、行为偏激的形象，严谨、守规矩 的标签更符合央行工作需要。 但也有例外，有些时候央行的大胆和偏激远超世人预料。 伯南克担任美联储副主席期间，在一次重要活动中引用了货币经济学大师弗里德曼的"直升机撒钱"比 喻，强调美联储有"印刷机"可以无限创造美元来避免通缩。这个发言让社会公众对这位素来 ...

尽管黄金与白银等贵金属在2025年最后一个交易日普遍下跌，但全年表现仍可圈可点，可谓亮丽收官。黄金创下46年来最强全年涨幅，白银与铂金表现更 是异常亮眼，双双翻涨超过一倍，交出创纪录的一年。 黄金在2025年来大涨约65%，创下1979年迄今最佳年度表现，驱动力主要来自美联储降息、地缘政治持续动荡、央行强劲买盘以及资金流入ETF等。 白银全年涨幅已超过147%，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，远远跑赢黄金。从供应短缺、库存水位低、工业和投资者风险情绪上升，到白银被美国指 定为关键矿产，都推动白银的涨势。 铂金全年涨幅超过122%，也是有纪录以来最佳的一年。钯金全年涨幅超过75%，创15年来最佳表现。 不过，2025年10月21日，黄金价格遭遇了自2013年以来最剧烈的下跌。此前金价一度触及历史高位4380美元，随后陷入一周时间的调整，终于在跌破4000 美元关口后，触及3887美元企稳反弹。 在经历了一段一路高歌猛进的上涨行情之后，12月29日，黄金价格在强势突破4500美元关口，并一度触及4549美元的历史新高后，随即遭遇快速回落；与 此同时，白银价格同样未能延续涨势，在突破80美元整数关口并刷新至80.70 ...

现在的美国在所有的经济体之中，是逮着日本一个国家薅羊毛，已经快把日本薅秃了。在几乎所有的国家都在为了避险卖出美国国债的时候，只有日本迎难 而上，顶着自身将要爆表的经济压力也要凑出外汇来购买美国国债。 日本这样购买美债的行为最终是否还是要日本的民众来买单？同时又会给日本乃至全球的经济带来什么样的伤害？ 数据显示，加拿大狂抛567亿美债，持仓暴跌至4191亿美元丢掉第四大持有国地位。 除此之外，英国也大幅抛售393亿美债退居第三，相对比之下，中国虽然有持续减持美债的动作，但是因为抛售量较小，又回到美国国债的第二大持有国的 行列。 而日本在逆势之中持续加码美国国债，稳坐美国第一大债主的宝座，目前日本持有1.2万亿美元美债，已经连续第十个月增持。 但是就算前几大债主动作频频，但所有外国投资者持有的美债总额依然高达9.24万亿美元，比去年同期还增长了6.3%。 还有反直觉事实是：外国投资者手里那9万多亿美债，其实只占美国总共38万亿美元国债的不到四分之一。 购买美国国债最多的人是美国国内的机构和美国民众，比如养老基金、银行，还有美联储。 同时美联储也已经在12月份宣布，此后美国每个月将会购买400亿美元的美国国债。新一 ...

桥水基金创始人、亿万富翁投资者雷·达里奥越来越担心美国债务的可持续性。今年早些时候，他接受 采访时提到，美国可能在2-4年内，也就是2027年至2029年之间，爆发债务危机。 在本文中，我将向您展示他的预测是如何逐渐过时的，以及是什么导致他对美国经济得出如此负面的结 论。对于我将要讨论的每一点，我都会阐述我的观点。 美国经济的最大问题 达里奥指出，美国经济最大的问题是其债务负担：美国政府每年要支付大约一万亿美元的利息，如果没 有这笔利息支出，他们就会多花一万亿美元，而且随着时间的推移，这种情况会越来越糟。此外，他们 还必须展期之前累积的债务，所以今年他们要展期大约九万亿美元，略高于九万亿美元的债务。这意味 着，他们新获得的资金用完后，就必须再次出售债券。当债务规模庞大时，这就会成为一个问题。 金融危机是债务可持续性的一个转折点。这场危机非常严重，以至于美联储开始实施非常规货币政策， 例如量化宽松政策，这种政策在日本等经济低迷的地区已经很普遍。利率无法进一步降低，与此同时， 政府开始出现巨额财政赤字。 事实上，自2008年以来，去杠杆化进程显著推进，并且仍在继续。在金融危机期间，家庭债务占GDP的 比重高达10 ...

12月10日，美联储终于再次宣布降息，此次降息的幅度为25个基点。这也是2025年以来美联储第三次降息，符合此前的市场预期。 但美联储内部意见分歧加剧，据媒体报道，在就降息问题进行表决时，有3个人投了反对票。 因为美联储主席鲍威尔任期即将届满，因此，外界认为，这有可能是鲍威尔卸任之前的最后一次利率调整。 鲍威尔称利率处于"中性"区间上端，美联储将继续观察美国经济走向。市场对明年降息路径存在疑问，市场担心，若白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特接任美 联储主席，有可能出现大幅度降息。 特朗普当天表示，美联储最新宣布的降息决定太过小心谨慎，降息幅度太小，"本来至少可以再翻一倍"， 也就是一次性下降50个基点。 今年以来，特朗普多次要求美联储降息，为目前疲弱的美国经济注入流动性。但美联储因为顾及已经较高的通胀和物价，在降息问题上始终态度谨慎。因 此，特朗普多次公开批评鲍威尔，认为他不称职，并一度在社交媒体上暗示鲍威尔应该辞职。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特此前也曾被认为是美联储主席的潜在继任人选。贝森特是特朗普本届政府的财经政策核心官员，今年4月特朗普发动对全球各国 和地区的关税战以来，贝森特一直在主导美国与其他国家的贸易谈判 ...

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在权衡鲍威尔的接替人选，国家经济委员会主任Kevin Hassett被广泛报道为该职位的热门人选。Hassett也曾担任Coinbase学术和监 管咨询委员会的顾问。 鲍威尔表示，消费支出和商业投资仍然"稳健"，并补充说裁员和招聘保持在低水平。然而，通胀仍"略高于"美联储2%的通胀目标，而住房行业仍被视为"疲 软"。 "近期通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，这构成了一个充满挑战的局面。政策没有无风险的实施路径，"鲍威尔在周三的美联储公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议上如此表示。 这些言论并不如部分分析师预期的那样"鹰派"，但市场分析师、Coinbureau创始人Nic Puckrin表示，在鲍威尔领导下，美联储预计在2026年仅会实施一次降 息。他进一步指出："2026年初，市场关注点将转向流动性和美联储的资产负债表政策。然而，尽管今天宣布了国库券购买计划，但量化宽松政策不会出 台，除非市场开始崩溃，而这总是意味着更多的波动性和潜在的痛苦。" 低利率环境有利于风险资产，如BTC的上涨，但根据CME Group的数据显示，仅有24.4%的交易者预期在2026年1月的下一次FOMC会议上会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the liquidity in the US money market has shifted from relative abundance to a phase of tightness, influenced by the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policy and US fiscal factors. However, factors causing dollar liquidity tightness are showing signs of improvement moving forward [1][18]. Group 1: Current State of Dollar Liquidity - The US money market liquidity has been tightening since 2025, primarily reflected in increased volatility and marginally higher financing costs in the repurchase (repo) market [2][20]. - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has consistently exceeded the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) since September, indicating liquidity pressure in the repo market [2][21]. - The SOFR-EFFR spread reached 36 basis points (BP) on October 31, the highest since October 1, 2019, and has shown signs of remaining elevated, with an average of 9 BP as of November 21, compared to just 1 BP in August [2][20]. Group 2: Causes of Liquidity Tightness - The ongoing impact of the Federal Reserve's QT since June 2022 has transitioned from a quantitative to a qualitative effect, leading to a significant reduction in liquidity [6][27]. - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has fluctuated significantly, with a notable decrease from $818 billion in February to around $3 billion, contributing to liquidity withdrawal from the market [8][26]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged, with daily averages of $11.5 billion and $6.5 billion during two periods of heightened market tension in 2025, indicating increased reliance on this tool amid tightening conditions [4][22]. Group 3: Implications and Future Outlook - The tightening of dollar liquidity is expected to impact financial markets, with potential adjustments in asset prices across equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies due to rising financing costs [12][31]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to halt QT and the resumption of normal fiscal spending are expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the near term [15][33]. - Future measures may include enhancing the effectiveness of the SRF and potentially resuming asset purchases to stabilize liquidity conditions, with indications that the Fed is closely monitoring the evolving liquidity landscape [16][34].

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他将根据新任美联储主席是否会立即采取降息行动 来评判其领导力表现以及"是否真的称职"。据了解，特朗普本人在接受媒体采访时，当被问及迅速下调 借贷成本是否会成为他亲自挑选的美联储主席的一项"试金石"时，特朗普毫不犹豫地回答说："是的。" "是的。嗯，这个家伙也是……他也应该这样做。"特朗普在周二发布的这篇接受《Politico》采访的媒体 报道中表示，他指的是现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)。"我认为他既不聪明，又不喜欢 特朗普政府。"特朗普在采访中强调。 特朗普的最新言论无疑向潜在的新任美联储主席发出了一个至关重要的信号：如果他被提名领导这家在 全球范围最具影响力的央行，美国总统会对其有何期待。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)被多家美国媒体报道为美联储主席竞选中的绝对领 跑者，他上个月表示，各项数据显示美联储应该"现在立刻"降息。 市场也在真金白银押注"鸽到极致"的哈塞特即将上位。多家付费型预测市场在最近几日一路"狂奔"，给 立场极度鸽派的哈塞特入主美联储的机会赋予了较高概率。截至周一下午，付费型的押注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering within the Trump administration regarding the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting the tensions between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and current Chair Powell, as well as the implications for monetary policy and economic stability [4][13][24]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Criticism - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed a desire to reform the Federal Reserve, criticizing it for being too broad in its responsibilities and losing public trust [6][20]. - Mnuchin's proposal suggests that the Federal Reserve should focus solely on monetary policy, specifically stabilizing inflation and maintaining low unemployment, while relinquishing its regulatory role over banks [8][22]. - He argues that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies have disproportionately benefited large corporations, exacerbating wealth inequality [9][24]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The article indicates that Mnuchin's criticisms align with Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell, particularly regarding interest rate policies, creating a political backdrop for potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve [13][15]. - The potential successor to Powell, Kevin Hassett, is noted for his close ties to Trump and advocacy for lower interest rates, which could further align the Federal Reserve with the administration's economic agenda [18][24]. - The article warns that if the Federal Reserve loses its independence and becomes a tool of the Trump administration, it could undermine the credibility of the dollar and U.S. monetary policy [18][26]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that the ongoing power struggle over the Federal Reserve Chair position is not just about policy differences but also about the broader implications for economic stability and the potential risks to ordinary Americans [22][24]. - It suggests that if the Federal Reserve were to abandon its regulatory functions, it could lead to a repeat of past financial crises, highlighting the importance of maintaining regulatory oversight to prevent economic disasters [22][24]. - The overall message conveys that the independence of the central bank is crucial for economic stability, and any short-term political gains could have long-lasting negative effects on the economy [26].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the structural transformation of the U.S. economy, with the technology sector becoming the main growth engine, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and digital technology, supported by gradual monetary easing policies [1][4]. Economic Structure - There is a stark contrast between the shrinking manufacturing sector and the rise of technology. In the early 1950s, manufacturing profits accounted for 60% of all industry profits, but this dropped to 17% from 2010 to 2020 due to factors like the decline of the "Rust Belt" and globalization [1][4]. - U.S. technology companies are significantly investing in artificial intelligence and computing infrastructure, leading to a digital technology arms race aimed at regaining a global technological edge. The total value of data centers under construction in the U.S. is approximately $40 billion, with a growth rate exceeding 400% since 2022, expected to surpass office buildings as a core driver of economic growth [1][4]. Technology Stock Valuation - The current bubble risk in U.S. tech stocks is considered manageable. The price-to-earnings ratio of the seven major U.S. tech companies is 36.8, lower than 47.3 in 2020 and significantly below the 80 times peak ratio of the "Four Horsemen" (Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle, Intel) before the 2000 internet bubble burst [2][5]. - The competitive landscape in AI and computing chips is diversifying, with multiple companies like Google, Microsoft, and Alibaba launching their own AI models, and Nvidia facing competition from AMD, Broadcom, Huawei, and others [5][6]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts include three in 2025 and three to four in 2026, stabilizing around 3%, with a gradual decline to 2.5% by 2027, avoiding a return to zero interest rates. This strategy aims to maintain domestic liquidity, prevent large-scale capital outflows, alleviate pressure on small businesses, and support the stock market and the strength of the dollar [2][6]. - A new round of quantitative easing is expected to be initiated in early 2026, which could further boost market confidence and assist the U.S. economy in achieving a smooth landing [2][6].