Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways observation, close futures-cash arbitrage positions [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking for existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for non-participants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices and trading volumes both dropped, and the futures-cash basis widened. The valuation of steel futures has been repaired to a neutral range, but the near-month contracts are under pressure [2]. - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are mainly under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance [5]. - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00 yuan/ton, 3314.00 yuan/ton, 743.00 yuan/ton, 1691.00 yuan/ton, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of -10.00 yuan/ton, -45.00 yuan/ton, -20.50 yuan/ton, -54.00 yuan/ton, and -32.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3115.00 yuan/ton, 3303.00 yuan/ton, 766.00 yuan/ton, 1594.50 yuan/ton, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 8.00 yuan/ton, -53.00 yuan/ton, -21.00 yuan/ton, -58.50 yuan/ton, and -38.00 yuan/ton [1]. Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restriction may have a temporary impact on hot metal, but the duration will not be long. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly [2]. - The steel futures price has been further revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost. The basis has widened, and the premium has improved. The valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The supply continues to increase, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined [5]. - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance. Short-term oversold may lead to price rebounds, and existing short positions can consider partial profit-taking [5]. Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently weak, with futures prices falling and spot prices following suit. The market is waiting to see if there will be a mismatch in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are mainly under pressure. [3] - The eighth round of coke price increase has been temporarily shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak in the short - term. [5] - The iron ore price is supported by the pre - holiday restocking cycle under high iron - making production, but supply increments in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] 3) Summary by Directory Steel - Futures prices of steel contracts are weak, with the near - month contracts moving towards the weak spot prices. The price center has dropped to between electric - arc furnace losses and blast - furnace costs, and the basis has widened significantly. [2] - On the macro level, there is a policy vacuum, and attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment. [2] - In terms of industry reality, steel supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both on a monthly and annual basis. [2] - Suggestion: Stop losses on short - term long positions in steel futures and wait for opportunities. The cash - and - carry arbitrage is in the profit - taking window. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly follow the sector. [3] - The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply continues to increase, and it is difficult to have large - scale production cuts in the short - term. [3] - Terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and the risk of a decline in steel - mill production is increasing, which will impact the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. [3] - Suggestion: Sell at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The eighth round of coke price increase has been shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. [5] - The futures market of coking coal and coke is weak, and the black - chain index has fallen. The market is mainly concerned about the verification of steel demand during the peak season. [5] - The supply of coal mines and coking enterprises is still restricted, but due to the difficulty of price transmission downstream and the weakening of thermal - coal prices after the peak season, coking coal and coke prices are also falling. [5] - Suggestion: Industrial customers should pay attention to hedging opportunities after price increases. [7] Iron Ore - The black - metal sector is oscillating, and the influence of the near - month contracts on the far - month contracts has decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming meetings on iron - making production. [6] - In September, the pre - holiday restocking cycle will support the iron - ore price, but the expected supply increment in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] - Suggestion: The support level of the 01 - contract iron - ore price is still valid. [6] Market Data on August 29 Futures Market | Contract | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2601 (Far - month) | 3160.00 | - 22.00 | - 0.69 | | HC2605 (Far - month) | 3352.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.03 | | I2605 (Far - month) | 763.50 | 5.00 | 0.66 | | J2605 (Far - month) | 1733.50 | - 9.50 | - 0.55 | | JM2605 (Far - month) | 1193.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.08 | | RB2510 (Near - month) | 3090.00 | - 26.00 | - 0.83 | | HC2601 (Near - month) | 3346.00 | - 16.00 | - 0.48 | | I2601 (Near - month) | 787.50 | 6.00 | 0.77 | | J2601 (Near - month) | 1643.00 | - 14.50 | - 0.87 | | JM2601 (Near - month) | 1151.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.13 | Spot Market | Product | Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rebar | 3250.00 | - 30.00 | | Tianjin Rebar | 3220.00 | - 20.00 | | Guangzhou Rebar | 3280.00 | - 10.00 | | Tangshan Billet | 2970.00 | - 30.00 | | Shanghai Hot - Rolled Coil | 3370.00 | - 40.00 | | Hangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3440.00 | 30.00 | | Guangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3360.00 | - 50.00 | | Qingdao Super - Special Powder | 670.00 | 15.00 | | Another Iron Ore | 715.00 | 10.00 | | Ganqimaodu Coking Coal | 1180.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao First - Grade Coke | 1530.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao PB Iron Ore | 778.00 | 11.00 | Spread and Basis | Spread/Basis | Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 - RB2601 | - 70.00 | 6.00 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | - 6.00 | - 19.00 | | I2601 - I2605 | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | J2601 - J2605 | - 90.50 | - 3.00 | | JM2601 - JM2605 | - 42.00 | 5.00 | | Coil - Rebar Spread | 256.00 | 0.00 | | Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio | 3.92 | - 0.03 | | Coal - Coke Ratio | 1.43 | 0.00 | | Rebar Futures Margin | - 88.63 | - 19.30 | | Coking Futures Margin | 112.17 | 2.42 | | HC Basis (Main Contract) | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | RB Basis (Main Contract) | 160.00 | 9.00 | | I Basis (Main Contract) | 25.00 | 0.00 | | J Basis (Main Contract) | 37.16 | 29.50 | | JM Basis (Main Contract) | 59.00 | 24.00 | [1]