黑色建材日报 2025-09-30 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3097 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 270238 吨, 环比减少 2412 吨。主力合约持仓量为 192.6639 万手，环比减少 49906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 24 元/吨（-0.72%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 138.447 万 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-09-29 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3114 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 53 元/吨（-1.67%）。当日注册仓单 272650 吨, 环比增加 1228 吨。主力合约持仓量为 197.6545 万手，环比增加 106096 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨。 热轧 板卷主力合约收盘价为 3313 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 45 元/吨（-1.34%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环 比减少 890 吨。主力合约持仓量为 139.1208 万手， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak fundamental state with price upward pressure, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and future focus should be on actual demand and macro - policy trends [3]. - The current high price of iron ore is not sustainable due to weakening steel fundamentals, insufficient demand in the peak season, and pressure on steel mill profits [20]. - After the lifting of coking enterprise production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term, and it is not recommended to short - allocate coking coal [32]. - Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand [51]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and stable rigid demand [65]. - The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3143 yuan/ton, up from 3117 yuan/ton on September 4. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also had slight changes [4][7][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the parade, this week's pig iron production decreased significantly. After the parade, the iron ore price rebounded strongly, and the market believes that short - term production restrictions have limited impact on iron ore. The steel market has a weak fundamental state, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts such as the 01, 05, and 09 contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao also had slight changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.29 tons this week compared to last week. The 45 - port ore inventory increased by 62.3 tons week - on - week. The global and Australia - Brazil iron ore shipments increased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The current high price of iron ore is due to the resumption of steel mills' production after the parade and the weakening of coking coal. However, this upward trend is not sustainable due to the weakening steel fundamentals [20]. Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 01 - 05 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also had certain changes [38][39]. - **Market Analysis**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term. The coking coal market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure, but the short - term surplus problem is not serious [32]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed compared to the previous day. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from the previous day [52][56]. - **Market Analysis**: Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand. There is a possibility of production reduction due to falling profits [51]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1387 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.21% [66]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The rigid demand is stable, and the cost of raw salt and coal is temporarily stable [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1287 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.13% [94]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market shows weak supply and demand, with production and demand both affected by the parade. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, which may suppress prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are under pressure. However, the long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The spot prices have declined, and the futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. But there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Iron ore production has decreased due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Thursday, steel production dropped significantly due to the parade, and apparent demand also declined. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, suppressing prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - Suggestion: Unilateral observation, and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate stages [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The fundamentals are poor in the short term, with increased supply and weak terminal demand. Inventory is high, and prices are under pressure. The long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - Suggestion: Short - sell on rallies [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot price of port metallurgical coke has dropped by 30, and the coking coal auction has declined with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. However, there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Suggestion: Close existing short positions gradually and consider batch - layout of medium - term long positions [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore production has dropped to 11290 tons per day due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways observation, close futures-cash arbitrage positions [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking for existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for non-participants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices and trading volumes both dropped, and the futures-cash basis widened. The valuation of steel futures has been repaired to a neutral range, but the near-month contracts are under pressure [2]. - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are mainly under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance [5]. - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00 yuan/ton, 3314.00 yuan/ton, 743.00 yuan/ton, 1691.00 yuan/ton, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of -10.00 yuan/ton, -45.00 yuan/ton, -20.50 yuan/ton, -54.00 yuan/ton, and -32.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3115.00 yuan/ton, 3303.00 yuan/ton, 766.00 yuan/ton, 1594.50 yuan/ton, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 8.00 yuan/ton, -53.00 yuan/ton, -21.00 yuan/ton, -58.50 yuan/ton, and -38.00 yuan/ton [1]. Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restriction may have a temporary impact on hot metal, but the duration will not be long. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly [2]. - The steel futures price has been further revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost. The basis has widened, and the premium has improved. The valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The supply continues to increase, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined [5]. - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance. Short-term oversold may lead to price rebounds, and existing short positions can consider partial profit-taking [5]. Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6].

| | | | | | | | ER FARFER | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/01 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Black Industry Chain Industry Overview - The black industry chain has seen a significant reduction in the premium from anti-involution, with materials like polysilicon and lithium carbonate entering a period of expected adjustment, necessitating attention to steel demand in Q4 to avoid downward risks [1][2] - Iron ore has shown strong resistance to declines, but its sustainability is questionable if steel demand expectations are weak [1][5] - Coal production recovery post-inspection and the rapid increase in sea and Mongolian coal imports are critical factors to monitor [1][5] Key Points and Arguments Steel Market - Steel inventory is currently low, and the peak season demand has yet to be validated, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [1][9] - Price fluctuations are influenced by downstream replenishment willingness; lower prices encourage buying, while higher prices face resistance [1][9] - The forecast for rebar prices in Q3 and Q4 is between 3,100 to 3,400 RMB, with hot-rolled steel expected to be 100 RMB higher [3][25] Coal Market - The core driver for coking coal is policy regulation; without production limits, output may continue to rise, leading to potential oversupply [1][6] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is nearing its peak, with improving import volumes and domestic supply recovering to high levels, indicating potential price weakness ahead [1][7] - The Xinjiang overproduction issue is a significant concern for the coal market [1][8] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to remain balanced, with port inventories projected to rise to 150 million tons by year-end [3][23] - The equilibrium price for iron ore is estimated around 240 USD, with fluctuations expected based on demand conditions [12] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for Q4 is cautious, with potential for a weak market due to insufficient consumption drivers and weakening realities [1][28] - The steel export market is performing well, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic cost advantages, with a projected increase in exports of 1.3 to 1.5 million tons [20][21] - The focus for investment strategies should be on raw materials, particularly coking coal, as the market navigates through potential negative feedback loops [1][28][29] Additional Important Insights - The impact of recent policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies, is expected to stimulate some demand but overall internal demand growth remains limited [19] - The black industry chain's performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [13][17] - The market is currently characterized by a cautious approach, with a need for new expectations to drive price movements [1][30]

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend but poor operability on the disk [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term due to weak downstream demand, high iron - water levels, and market sentiment changes. The iron ore market will face increased downward pressure when iron - water production cuts turn from expectation to reality. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policies and have large price fluctuations. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are also influenced by policies, with silicon iron following the trend of silicon manganese [2][3][4] Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Thread steel shows rising demand but falling production and rising inventory. Hot - rolled coil has improving demand, rising production, and accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level is low, and attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity near the military parade. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is in a strong and volatile state. Supply is strong with potential for seasonal growth, and port inventory is rising. Demand is supported by high iron - water levels in the short - term, but there are expectations of production cuts around the military parade. The downward pressure on the disk increases when production cuts become a reality [3] Coke - The coke futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. There are expectations of production restrictions in East China due to approaching events. The seventh price increase has improved coking profits and slightly increased daily production. Inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by policies with large short - term fluctuations [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. Coal mine production is increasing, and the spot auction market has a slightly higher non - transaction rate. Terminal inventory is flat, and production - end inventory has a slight increase. The price is affected by policies and is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. Demand is supported by high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices have a slight decline, and the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is affected by policies and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a temporary stabilization after a period of volatility, influenced by the strong performance of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity support [1][4][8]. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose from 1.72% on August 15 to 1.7875% on August 18, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equities [1]. - On August 20, the bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points in the morning session [1]. - However, by the afternoon of August 20, the yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.15% compared to the morning, reflecting ongoing volatility [2]. Central Bank Actions - The central bank has been actively providing liquidity support, conducting a 616 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 20, maintaining a stable operation rate of 1.40% [4]. - This liquidity provision is seen as a protective measure for the bond market amid concerns of a "negative feedback" loop from potential large-scale redemptions [5][7]. Investor Behavior - Institutional investors have shown a shift in behavior, with funds moving from selling to buying bonds, particularly the 10-year government bonds, indicating a potential change in market sentiment [5]. - Despite recent volatility, bond funds have remained relatively stable, with net subscription indices staying within a manageable range, suggesting resilience in the face of market fluctuations [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current sentiment in the bond market remains fragile, heavily influenced by the performance of the equity market, which is experiencing a strong rally [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the bond market is under pressure from equity market dynamics, it is not expected to enter a bear market due to the overall supportive monetary policy environment [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary