南华期货钢材周报 ——短期尚无驱动，区间震荡 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面方面，成材自身的矛盾基本面不大，整体维持减产和去库的趋势，上周热卷的消费量环比边际改善明 显，但不排除可能是在出口管制生效前的抢出口行为，还需关注后续的需求的持续性。供应端由于高炉和电 炉的利润近期回升较多，成材减产的力度可能减弱，上周螺纹和热卷的产量均小幅增加，但终端需求萎靡， 工地陆续停工，北方已经进入季节性淡季，螺纹需求降速虽放缓但仍处于低位，若螺纹产量继续增加而消费 并无起色，螺纹钢未来去库趋势可能放缓。铁水产量上周环比微增，但是否见底还需观察，铁水产量的微增 支撑了铁矿价格的强势，目前铁矿港口库存继续累库，铁矿上方亦有压力，但结构上钢厂库存相较于往年偏 低，有补库需求的支撑 ，铁矿价格可能区间震荡。焦煤矿山库存和港口库存维持累库状态，蒙古通关量维持 在高位，蒙古口岸库存也维持累库趋势，整体看焦煤的供应相对宽松，限制焦煤的上涨空间。近期商品市场 偏暖也部分带动了钢材价格的上涨，但受制于现 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 螺纹&热卷观点：预期提振，钢价反弹 ◼ 逻辑：预期提振，钢价反弹 | 2025/12/19 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | | | 需求（万吨） | | | | | | 库存 | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | ...

陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-10 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3079 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 44 元/吨（-1.40%）。当日注册仓单 35821 吨, 环比减少 10455 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.3747 万手，环比增加 116170 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3252 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 39 元/吨（-1.18%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量 ...

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 1、钢材观点：需求成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 2、铁矿周度观点：现货价格偏强，但未来供需压力仍存 3、煤焦周度观点：供给预期调整，估值下修 4、铁合金观点：原料端情绪降温，合金低位震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年11月30日 2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong performance, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. With the expected decline in hot metal and high steel inventories, the hot metal production of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron element supply in the January contract is turning loose, and there is a basis for negative feedback in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be continued, and the main risk is the coal mine复产 situation. For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Night trading of iron ore was strong, and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin dropped significantly, hot metal production declined from a high level, and the replenishment demand of steel mills weakened. If the steel mill losses continue to increase and the finished product destocking is not as expected, the iron ore price may hit a new low. However, under the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in hot metal is low. In terms of strategy, the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage can partially stop profit, and wait for the coking coal to stabilize [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot - futures market was not in sync. The third round of coke price increase was implemented on November 5th, and the fourth round was launched on November 7th but not yet landed. On the supply side, coking coal prices in the Shanxi market were strong, providing cost support for coke, but coking enterprises still faced losses after the price increase, and their开工 rate decreased. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to a significant decline in steel mill hot metal production, and steel prices were weak, suppressing the coke price increase. In terms of inventory, there was a slight destocking in coking plants, ports, and steel mills. Coke may still have a price increase expectation due to cost support. The strategy is to view it with a side - way trend, with a reference range of 1650 - 1780, and suggest a long - January and short - May arbitrage for coke [7]. - Coking coal futures also showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The domestic coking coal market continued to be strong, but the price increase was too fast, making traders cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia resumed production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November. On the demand side, the decline in profit and environmental protection restrictions led to a significant decline in hot metal production, and the replenishment demand of steel mills weakened. In terms of inventory, there was destocking in coal mines and steel mills, and inventory accumulation in coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports. The strategy is to view it with a side - way trend, with a reference range of 1170 - 1290, and suggest a long - January and short - May arbitrage for coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and +10 yuan/ton. Rebar futures contracts (05, 10, 01) decreased by 13, 3, and 19 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and +10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts (05, 10, 01) decreased by 10, 9, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China were - 30, - 110, and - 40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3, - 3, and - 13 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were - 110, - 100, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3, +7, and +7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production was 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The production of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (- 2.1%). Rebar production was 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (- 1.9%), and hot - rolled coil production was 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (- 1.7%). - The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (- 0.7%). Rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (- 1.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [1]. Trading Volume and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 91, down 17 (- 15.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (- 5.4%). The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (- 5.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (- 5.3%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads of iron ore futures contracts changed by +0.5, - 1.0, and +0.5 respectively [4]. Supply and Demand - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 477.2 tons (- 14.8%) this week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 tons (- 4.5%). - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.8 tons (0.2%), the national monthly pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons (- 5.4%), and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 387.8 tons (- 5.0%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 229.4 tons (1.5%) compared with Monday, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 160.1 tons (1.8%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke prices: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. Coke futures contracts (01, 05) decreased by 59 and 46 yuan/ton respectively. - Coking coal prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 33 yuan/ton (- 2.4%). Coking coal futures contracts (01, 05) decreased by 53 and 31 yuan/ton respectively [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production (weekly): The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons (- 1.5%), and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.3%). - Coking coal production (weekly): The raw coal production decreased by 3.4 tons (- 0.4%), and the clean coal production decreased by 2.0 tons (- 0.5%) [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory (weekly): The total coke inventory decreased by 13 tons (- 1.4%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.6 tons (- 2.6%), the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons (- 0.4%), and the port inventory decreased by 9 tons (- 4.3%). - Coking coal inventory (weekly): The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.8 tons (- 0.9%), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 17.5 tons (1.7%), the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9 tons (- 1.1%), and the port inventory increased by 14.1 tons (4.9%) [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production Indicators**: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides specific operation suggestions based on the market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors of each category. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The consumer sector rebounded strongly, while industrial manufacturing - related industries pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts was repaired. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider deploying a bull spread of put options in case of a deep decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment was positive despite the short - term tightening of the capital side. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The end of the US government shutdown is expected to lead to a decline in the US dollar index, and the supply shortage drives the significant strengthening of precious metals. It is recommended to buy on dips below $4100 for gold and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [7][8][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is still cold, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown eases liquidity risks and drives the rebound of copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock. The reference range for the main contract is 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [16][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level shock, and the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main contract is expected to operate between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to maintain a strong shock. The reference range for the main contract is 20400 - 21100 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The liquidity risk mitigation expectation rises, and the price is in a high - level shock. The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 [24][26][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment improves, and the price is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to hold long positions [32]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals change little, and the macro is weak. The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 [33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - drive weakens, and the fundamentals still have pressure. The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000, showing a weak shock [35][36][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - atmosphere drives the price up. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high [41][42]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price fluctuates upward. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to go long on dips in the futures and sell put options in the options [42][43][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price in some areas rises, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock. The reference range is 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [44][45][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [47][48]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [50][51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is strong, but the demand for replenishment weakens. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [53][54][55]. - **Coke**: The cost is supported, and there is still an expectation of price increase. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56][57][58]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The export of US soybeans is still uncertain. The domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report on Friday [60][61][62].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Weak [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The coking coal price has risen significantly, and the short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market needs to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] - The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. [3] - The log market is expected to have weak oscillation due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation due to the weakening of cost support and the poor demand. The oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation due to the concerns about supply and demand. The meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] - The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price due to the increase in demand and the slowdown in slaughter. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation due to the impact of weather on supply and the recovery of demand. [7] - The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. [9] Industry Summaries Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a record high in recent years, with a month-on-month increase of 12.298 million tons and an increase of 59%. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. [2] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal price has risen significantly due to the overseas interest rate cut, the easing of Sino-US relations, and the exceeding of market expectations by the 14th Five-Year Plan. The short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. [2] - Rebar and coil: The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts of more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy. The steel market still has supply and demand contradictions and is mainly in oscillation adjustment. [2] - Glass: The cold repair of 4 production lines in Shahe is expected to be seen this week, with a production capacity of about 3,000 tons. The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Chinese government has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. [2][3] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The central bank has carried out 65.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds is 492.2 billion yuan. [3] - Gold and silver: The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. The silver market also has a high-level oscillation trend. [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased month-on-month, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import volume of logs shows a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure increases. The log market is expected to have weak oscillation. [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices weakens, and the demand is poor. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation. [5] - Double-adhesive paper: The supply pressure of double-adhesive paper still exists, and the market expectation is cautious. The double-adhesive paper market is expected to oscillate. [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Oil and fat: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil market has high inventory and increasing production, and the oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation. [5] - Meal: The Chinese government has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products, and the meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs has decreased slightly. The demand for large pigs has increased, and the price of large pigs has remained strong. The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price. [7] - Rubber: The supply of rubber raw materials is stable in Yunnan and affected by weather in Hainan. The demand for rubber has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation. [7] Polyester Industry - PX: The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PX price follows the oil price fluctuation. [9] - PTA: The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The cost support for PTA prices is weakened. [9] - MEG: The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. The short-term cost fluctuation is large. [9] - PR: The polyester bottle chip market may oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of effective driving factors. [9] - PF: The polyester staple fiber market may have weak consolidation due to the overnight oil price decline and the lack of obvious positive factors. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer feedback, particularly the need for negative feedback to discourage poor business practices, suggesting that financial transactions serve as a vote for or against a company's behavior [3][18]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers often express dissatisfaction after making a purchase, which inadvertently encourages businesses to continue their practices [3][4]. - Paying for unsatisfactory services or products sends a positive signal to the business, reinforcing their behavior [6][18]. Feedback Mechanism - To effectively express dissatisfaction, consumers should provide negative feedback by refusing to pay or walking away when they encounter issues [7][12]. - The article suggests that consumers should not feel embarrassed to express their true feelings through their purchasing decisions [21][22]. Market Dynamics - When consumers collectively provide negative feedback, businesses will be forced to reconsider their pricing and service strategies to avoid losses [17][23]. - The article argues that a market can improve when consumers are vocal about their dissatisfaction, leading to better practices from businesses [17][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may be more cost - effective than shorting [10]. - For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end; otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend with a low cost - performance for operation [10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, easily following the commodity environment. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [13][16]. - For glass, it is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend. For soda ash, the price is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1437 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 81220 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4799 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 182 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial. Future development focuses on high - quality development of real estate and population. Fundamentally, rebar shows a neutral performance with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing. Hot - rolled coils have a slight decline in production, rising demand, and marginal inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level [2]. - The steel mill profitability rate has declined significantly, and the molten iron output has dropped significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve [2]. Iron Ore **Market Information** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.77% (- 6.00), and the positions increased by 4501 lots to 56.56 million lots. The weighted positions were 95.82 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and FMG's shipments, and a slight increase in non - mainstream countries' shipments. The near - end arrival volume has decreased [5]. - Demand: The average daily molten iron output has dropped below 240,000 tons, affected by weak steel prices, low mill profitability, and environmental protection in Hebei. The contradiction between high molten iron and terminal demand has been realized, and the molten iron output has decreased [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continues to increase, and mill inventory has a slight increase. Fundamentally, the iron ore demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate, putting pressure on prices [5]. - Macroscopically, pay attention to the "15th Five - Year Plan" details and the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which may improve market sentiment [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron **Market Information** - On October 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.79% at 5772 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 138 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.57% at 5542 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [7][8]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, important meetings have positive statements, but there is no super - expected content. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting. The black sector's fundamentals have concerns about high supply and low demand, and the mill profitability rate has dropped to 47.62%. There may be a "negative feedback" risk in the short term [9]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is more cost - effective to find callback positions to do rebounds. For manganese silicon, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon **Market Information** - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, down 1.55% (- 140). The weighted positions decreased by 11,008 lots to 427,574 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 1.46% (- 775). The weighted positions decreased by 12,056 lots to 231,619 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 were unchanged, with a basis of 675 yuan/ton [15]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure persists, with increasing weekly output. Demand support is weakening, and there is no obvious improvement in supply and demand. It is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, following the commodity environment [13][14]. - Polysilicon: Supply pressure may be marginally relieved as some capacities may be overhauled. The downstream start - up rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [16]. Glass and Soda Ash **Market Information** - Glass: The main contract closed at 1092 yuan/ton, down 1.44% (- 16). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233,740,000 cases (+ 3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 9086 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,487 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1229 yuan/ton, down 0.49% (- 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 160,000 tons (+ 3.64%), with a decrease in heavy - soda inventory and an increase in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased 6467 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,937 lots [20]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, downstream procurement has slowed down, and supply has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term. It is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend [19]. - Soda ash: The industry supply remains high, and demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [21].