知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | 矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011 1292号 2025年11月12日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现 E | FORET | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 836.3 | 844.0 | -7.7 | -0.9% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 852.4 | 854.6 | -2.2 | -0.3% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 864.2 | 866.4 | -2.2 | -0.2% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 846.7 | 850.0 | -3.2 | -0.4% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | 36.3 | 41.5 | -5.2 | -12.5% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 52.4 | 52.1 | 0.3 | 0.6% | 元/吨 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 64. ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production Indicators**: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 11 月 11 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Weak [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The coking coal price has risen significantly, and the short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market needs to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] - The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. [3] - The log market is expected to have weak oscillation due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation due to the weakening of cost support and the poor demand. The oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation due to the concerns about supply and demand. The meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] - The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price due to the increase in demand and the slowdown in slaughter. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation due to the impact of weather on supply and the recovery of demand. [7] - The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. [9] Industry Summaries Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a record high in recent years, with a month-on-month increase of 12.298 million tons and an increase of 59%. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. [2] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal price has risen significantly due to the overseas interest rate cut, the easing of Sino-US relations, and the exceeding of market expectations by the 14th Five-Year Plan. The short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. [2] - Rebar and coil: The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts of more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy. The steel market still has supply and demand contradictions and is mainly in oscillation adjustment. [2] - Glass: The cold repair of 4 production lines in Shahe is expected to be seen this week, with a production capacity of about 3,000 tons. The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Chinese government has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. [2][3] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The central bank has carried out 65.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds is 492.2 billion yuan. [3] - Gold and silver: The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. The silver market also has a high-level oscillation trend. [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased month-on-month, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import volume of logs shows a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure increases. The log market is expected to have weak oscillation. [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices weakens, and the demand is poor. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation. [5] - Double-adhesive paper: The supply pressure of double-adhesive paper still exists, and the market expectation is cautious. The double-adhesive paper market is expected to oscillate. [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Oil and fat: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil market has high inventory and increasing production, and the oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation. [5] - Meal: The Chinese government has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products, and the meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs has decreased slightly. The demand for large pigs has increased, and the price of large pigs has remained strong. The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price. [7] - Rubber: The supply of rubber raw materials is stable in Yunnan and affected by weather in Hainan. The demand for rubber has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation. [7] Polyester Industry - PX: The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PX price follows the oil price fluctuation. [9] - PTA: The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The cost support for PTA prices is weakened. [9] - MEG: The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. The short-term cost fluctuation is large. [9] - PR: The polyester bottle chip market may oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of effective driving factors. [9] - PF: The polyester staple fiber market may have weak consolidation due to the overnight oil price decline and the lack of obvious positive factors. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer feedback, particularly the need for negative feedback to discourage poor business practices, suggesting that financial transactions serve as a vote for or against a company's behavior [3][18]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers often express dissatisfaction after making a purchase, which inadvertently encourages businesses to continue their practices [3][4]. - Paying for unsatisfactory services or products sends a positive signal to the business, reinforcing their behavior [6][18]. Feedback Mechanism - To effectively express dissatisfaction, consumers should provide negative feedback by refusing to pay or walking away when they encounter issues [7][12]. - The article suggests that consumers should not feel embarrassed to express their true feelings through their purchasing decisions [21][22]. Market Dynamics - When consumers collectively provide negative feedback, businesses will be forced to reconsider their pricing and service strategies to avoid losses [17][23]. - The article argues that a market can improve when consumers are vocal about their dissatisfaction, leading to better practices from businesses [17][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may be more cost - effective than shorting [10]. - For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end; otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend with a low cost - performance for operation [10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, easily following the commodity environment. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [13][16]. - For glass, it is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend. For soda ash, the price is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1437 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 81220 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4799 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 182 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial. Future development focuses on high - quality development of real estate and population. Fundamentally, rebar shows a neutral performance with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing. Hot - rolled coils have a slight decline in production, rising demand, and marginal inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level [2]. - The steel mill profitability rate has declined significantly, and the molten iron output has dropped significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve [2]. Iron Ore **Market Information** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.77% (- 6.00), and the positions increased by 4501 lots to 56.56 million lots. The weighted positions were 95.82 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and FMG's shipments, and a slight increase in non - mainstream countries' shipments. The near - end arrival volume has decreased [5]. - Demand: The average daily molten iron output has dropped below 240,000 tons, affected by weak steel prices, low mill profitability, and environmental protection in Hebei. The contradiction between high molten iron and terminal demand has been realized, and the molten iron output has decreased [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continues to increase, and mill inventory has a slight increase. Fundamentally, the iron ore demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate, putting pressure on prices [5]. - Macroscopically, pay attention to the "15th Five - Year Plan" details and the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which may improve market sentiment [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron **Market Information** - On October 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.79% at 5772 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 138 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.57% at 5542 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [7][8]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, important meetings have positive statements, but there is no super - expected content. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting. The black sector's fundamentals have concerns about high supply and low demand, and the mill profitability rate has dropped to 47.62%. There may be a "negative feedback" risk in the short term [9]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is more cost - effective to find callback positions to do rebounds. For manganese silicon, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon **Market Information** - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, down 1.55% (- 140). The weighted positions decreased by 11,008 lots to 427,574 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 1.46% (- 775). The weighted positions decreased by 12,056 lots to 231,619 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 were unchanged, with a basis of 675 yuan/ton [15]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure persists, with increasing weekly output. Demand support is weakening, and there is no obvious improvement in supply and demand. It is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, following the commodity environment [13][14]. - Polysilicon: Supply pressure may be marginally relieved as some capacities may be overhauled. The downstream start - up rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [16]. Glass and Soda Ash **Market Information** - Glass: The main contract closed at 1092 yuan/ton, down 1.44% (- 16). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233,740,000 cases (+ 3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 9086 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,487 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1229 yuan/ton, down 0.49% (- 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 160,000 tons (+ 3.64%), with a decrease in heavy - soda inventory and an increase in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased 6467 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,937 lots [20]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, downstream procurement has slowed down, and supply has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term. It is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend [19]. - Soda ash: The industry supply remains high, and demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new tariff policy on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real - demand for steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances. The price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday [5]. - For the black sector, the report is not pessimistic. It is believed that the macro - level factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading. Looking for callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price oscillates mainly. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - For polysilicon, the current short - term price fluctuations are regarded as technical corrections in the structural adjustment process. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3787 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 60083 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 39913 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 17676 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - The new tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment again, causing a short - term impact on commodity prices. In the context of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the overall trend remains unchanged. The weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse in the short term [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.70% (- 5.50), and the positions increased by 8566 lots to 50.84 million lots. The weighted positions were 84.91 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.71% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the average daily molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) rose 0.14% to close at 5746 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 144 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) rose 0.56% to close at 5352 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 248 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Views - For the black sector, the price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation. The report is not pessimistic about the black sector's future [8]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's trend. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [9]. - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector's trend, with low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8570 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+ 50). The weighted contract positions decreased by 12310 lots to 430409 lots. The spot prices of East China's 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of 730 yuan/ton and 330 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50865 yuan/ton, up 1.75% (+ 875). The weighted contract positions increased by 11148 lots to 264927 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1885 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Views - The industrial silicon price oscillates mainly in the short term. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - The polysilicon price is in a fundamental correction stage. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1129 yuan/ton, down 0.79% (- 9). The North China and Central China spot prices were 1220 yuan and 1200 yuan respectively, with the latter decreasing by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million boxes (+ 5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 28850 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 38002 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1232 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (- 2). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 2 yuan to 1162 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%), with the heavy - soda and light - soda inventories increasing by 1.75 million tons and 4.24 million tons respectively. The top 20 long - position holders increased 471 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 4899 lots [19]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products trended downwards. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline in the context of a weakening commodity market. The current weak reality pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy strength during the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For the black sector, the research team is not pessimistic. Instead of short - selling, it believes that finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10910 tons, and the open interest increased by 26595 lots. The terminal demand dropped to a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2058 tons, and the open interest increased by 24873 lots. The production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and the inventory increase was prominent [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.19% (+9.50). The open interest increased by 9148 lots to 48.53 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.15 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.98% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. The daily average pig iron output was 241.54 million tons, down 0.27 million tons. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. If the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.24% at 5746 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. Its fundamentals are not ideal, and it is likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.55% at 5406 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 244 yuan/ton over the futures. Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+120). The open interest increased by 13950 lots to 429365 lots. The supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to rise [12][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 48740 yuan/ton, down 0.46% (-225). The open interest decreased by 107 lots to 246615 lots. The market may enter a fundamental correction stage, and the price is under pressure in the short term [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1179 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-28). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+5.84%). The short - term price is expected to continue the stable and narrow - range oscillation pattern [18][19]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1247 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+5.84%). The short - term market is expected to continue the stable and weak trend [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was fair, but prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Politburo meeting determined the date of the Fourth Plenary Session, and the National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, which boosted market sentiment. In the black - series market, trading volume declined slightly near the holiday, and the market remained cautious about holiday - period demand. Although there was a slight rebound in exports this week, the market remained in a weak oscillation. The demand for both hot - rolled coils and rebar was weak, showing prominent characteristics of a non - booming peak season. With the approach of the Fourth Plenary Session, the futures market will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, and steel prices still face a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, short - term hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After the end of steel mills' restocking, demand contradictions will mainly be reflected in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and inventory conditions after the holiday [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the current demand and supply environment, the market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment, and then prices may rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon may follow the black - series market, and its price may be driven by potential disruptions in the manganese ore market. Ferrosilicon is also likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether there are improvements in the supply - demand structure. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase [14]. - For polysilicon, the current futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, and the market lacks upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. - For glass, the futures market showed wide - range oscillations. Terminal demand remained weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on subsequent policy trends [19]. - For soda ash, the domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21]. Summary by Category Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2412 tons to 270238 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 49906 lots to 1.926639 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: The closing price of the main contract was 3289 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28314 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 6738 lots to 1.38447 million lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Near the holiday, trading volume declined slightly, and the market was cautious about holiday - period demand. Rebar production was basically the same as last week, pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. Hot - rolled coil production declined, apparent demand was moderate, and inventory slightly accumulated. Overall, demand for both was weak, and the market was in a weakly oscillating pattern. Steel prices still faced a risk of decline, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 784.00 yuan/ton, down 0.76% (- 6.00 yuan), with an open - interest change of - 34937 lots to 474000 lots. The weighted open interest was 784200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.93 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.31% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: Overseas iron - ore shipments remained stable at a high level. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - term arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot - metal production was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons. Steel mills' profitability declined further. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased significantly. Before the National Day, steel mills' restocking was almost over. - In the short term, hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After restocking ends, demand contradictions will mainly be in the downstream. If finished - product conditions weaken after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with light positions before the holiday and focus on downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.48% at 5820 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.88% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The black - series market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment and then rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, but low manganese - ore port inventory and relatively strong prices may drive its price if the black - series market strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8610 yuan/ton, down 3.91% (- 350 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 39748 lots to 442464 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with bases of 690 and 290 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Before the holiday, some funds left the market, weakening the futures price. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvements after the holiday [13][14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51280 yuan/ton, down 0.36% (- 185 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 10968 lots to 229306 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, lacking upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 1.92% (- 24 yuan). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 1553000 cases (- 2.55%) to 59355000 cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 64705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 43782 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1278 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (- 15 yuan). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 15 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 104100 tons (- 2.55%) to 1651500 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 14607 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 24990 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The futures market oscillated widely. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on policy trends [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate weakly. The steel prices still face a risk of decline from a fundamental perspective, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term hot metal production is strong. After the steel mills' replenishment is completed, if the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with a light position before the holiday and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [4]. - The price of the black sector may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market and then rise with the expectation of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the decline may not be deep, the market may trade on the expectations of the "15th Five - Year Plan". In the long - term, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long positions [7]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday [12]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term risk of phased decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of the main contract price and policy changes [14]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed with a slightly bullish bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy directions [17]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, with limited price fluctuations [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 272,650 tons, a net increase of 1228 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.976545 million lots, an increase of 106,096 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, the overall demand was weak, and the steel price still faced a risk of decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, a decrease of 890 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.391208 million lots, an increase of 21,492 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand was weak, and the market was in a weak volatile state [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.92% (-15.50). The position changed by -20,811 lots to 508,900 lots. The weighted position was 830,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The short - term hot metal production was strong, but the steel mills' profitability declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mills' replenishment was nearly completed. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward [4]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On September 26, the main contract (SM601) of manganese silicon dropped significantly, closing down 1.52% at 5834 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 108 yuan/ton or -1.81%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the support around 5600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [8]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 2.18% at 5660 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton or -1.57%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton and the support around 5400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There are no obvious contradictions and drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and it is likely to follow the trend of the black sector [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (-95). The weighted contract position changed by -17,816 lots to 482,212 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, with a basis of 340 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -60 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward on Friday. The supply and demand have not changed significantly in the short term. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [11][12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,465 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+100). The weighted contract position changed by -1661 lots to 240,274 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, all unchanged from the previous period. The basis was 1085 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current futures price is at a discount to the spot price. There is no significant progress in capacity integration and downstream price transmission. There is a short - term risk of phased decline in prices, and attention should be paid to support levels and policy changes [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1252 yuan/ton, down 1.42% (-18). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1220 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, up 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,926 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 19,222 lots [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass futures market showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The terminal demand was weak, and the supply was abundant. The inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in the short term and pay attention to subsequent policies [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1293 yuan/ton, down 1.67% (-22). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1203 yuan, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including a decrease of 83,700 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and a decrease of 20,400 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 9095 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 1242 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with slight fluctuations. The production was stable, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [19].