Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the trade-offs between certainty, prosperity, and valuation in investment strategies, suggesting that investors must adopt a flexible approach to identify opportunities and manage risks effectively [3][4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The concept of "the impossible triangle" illustrates that no investment opportunity can possess certainty, prosperity, and valuation simultaneously, requiring investors to prioritize two while sacrificing one [4]. - Three basic investment styles emerge from this triangle: - Deep value investing focuses on certainty and valuation, sacrificing prosperity [4]. - Sector rotation focuses on prosperity and valuation, sacrificing certainty [4]. - Track allocation focuses on prosperity and certainty, sacrificing valuation [4]. - The article discusses the deep value investment method, which is suitable for non-professional investors but requires overcoming psychological challenges related to market fluctuations [6][10]. Group 2: Sector Allocation - The article argues that abandoning valuation can be an effective strategy, as market consensus on valuation is subjective and can change over time [9]. - During periods of high prosperity, such as from May 2020 to November 2021, the most successful investment strategies were those that did not focus on valuation [10]. - Investors should consider a "configuration strategy," allocating part of their portfolio to high-prosperity sectors while seeking high-certainty stocks, often leading to standard configurations among institutional investors [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Trend Investment - Industry trend investment capitalizes on high-growth sectors, which often experience rapid valuation changes, making it challenging to apply traditional valuation methods [15][16]. - The article highlights that early-stage industry trends can lead to significant stock price increases, as seen in the lithium battery sector [17]. - Investors must navigate the uncertainty of defining "early-stage" trends, as market conditions can shift rapidly, impacting stock performance [18][19]. Group 4: Forecasting and Response - Investors need to predict changes in both prosperity and market expectations, as high prosperity sectors can lead to rapid stock price declines when signs of downturns appear [25][26]. - The article stresses the importance of qualitative analysis alongside quantitative tracking of prosperity to avoid pitfalls in investment strategies [28]. - A successful investment approach requires understanding the nature of the risks involved and aligning strategies with personal investment styles [32][33].