证券研究报告 | 科创&海外市场策略深度研究 科创&海外市场策略深度研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 27 日 春季行情之后，AI 投资向何处走？ ——科创&海外市场策略深度报告 核心观点 2025 年 12 月我们发布《如何把握牛市中的春季行情？》，报告借助景气释放驱动的 产业趋势投资的季节规律特征，提示了 2025 年底至 2026 年 2 月春季行情的节奏和结 构机会。 站在当前，如何看科技行情后续演绎？我们将进一步借助产业趋势投资的季节规律对 此进行分析。 ❑ 结合季节规律 AI 后续投资的节奏和主线 本轮牛市周期主线，也即以通信和电子为代表的 AI 上游算力，契合了景气驱动 的产业趋势投资的季节规律。具体来看，在 2025 年 5 月底附近，随着一季报落 地算力景气度明朗，启动了第一波行情；在 2025 年 11 月附近，受估值切换逻辑 驱动，启动第二波行情，并至 2026 年 2 月。 展望 3 月至 4 月，我们预计，受估值和拥挤度约束，以通信和电子为代表的 AI 上游算力或有阶段性高波动。 然而，震荡之后，2026 年的算力行情取决于景气能否延续。结合近期陆续披露 的美股科技龙头资本开支 ...

Core Viewpoint - In a complex and ever-changing market, the essence of investment lies in anchoring value, grasping the main line of the era, and achieving long-term sustainable returns [1][13]. Investment Philosophy - Investment should clarify the source of profits, whether from market fluctuations, industry beta, or individual stock alpha, ensuring that profits are replicable and sustainable [4][16]. - Value is fundamental, and a comprehensive assessment of asset value should be conducted to build a safety margin at reasonable prices [4][16]. - The investment framework is based on value-driven industrial trend investment, focusing on high-prosperity industries and identifying alpha stocks during upward trends [4][16]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The current market is characterized by strong performance in sectors such as aerospace, satellites, and AI applications, with a consensus on bullish expectations and limited downside risks [7][18]. - The domestic economy is steadily advancing towards high-quality development, supported by policies that nurture the capital market and restore social confidence [7][18]. - The AI industry is highlighted as a core area for investment, with significant potential in domestic AI expected in 2026 [19]. Specific Investment Opportunities - Key sectors of interest include AI and its derivatives, solid-state batteries, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [19]. - The robotics industry is currently in the risk growth investment phase, focusing on whether T-chain robots can achieve large-scale production [19]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to benefit from policy support, with potential for significant market size and profitability [19]. Performance Metrics - The Huashang Balanced Growth Mixed Fund A achieved a remarkable growth rate of 137.15% in 2025, ranking 4th among 1895 similar funds [1][13]. - The fund's performance over the years shows a net value growth rate of 29.60% (2021), -32.04% (2022), -9.33% (2023), 3.99% (2024), and 137.15% (2025) [9][21].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment lies in clarifying the source of profits and focusing on sustainable value creation, which is crucial for navigating market cycles and achieving long-term returns [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Investment should be based on a clear understanding of profit sources, whether from market fluctuations, industry beta, or individual stock alpha [2]. - A value-driven investment framework is emphasized, focusing on assessing asset values and constructing safety margins at reasonable prices [2]. - Identifying high-growth industries through systematic cross-industry comparisons is essential for uncovering investment opportunities [2][3]. Market Trends - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with limited downside risks and a notable trend of capital inflow into various sectors [4]. - The stock market is viewed as a voting machine in the short term but as a weighing machine in the long term, highlighting the importance of clear upward industry trends and performance realization [4]. Focus Areas - Key investment opportunities include AI and its derivatives, solid-state batteries, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]. - The AI sector is expected to be a core area of focus for 2026, with significant potential for growth [4][5]. - The robotics industry is currently in the early investment stage, with attention on the mass production capabilities of T-chain robots [5]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector is anticipated to benefit from supportive policies, with potential for significant market growth and profitability [5].

Group 1 - The core theme of the investment strategy meeting held by Fangzheng Fubang Fund is "Change and Innovation," focusing on investment opportunities and challenges in the upcoming year 2026 [1] - The Chief Investment Officer, Tang Ge, highlighted that the active equity fund returns in 2025 are expected to surpass the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with the weighted average return of equity mixed funds reaching 33.39% compared to 17.98% for the index as of December 25 [1] - A-share revenue and profit growth are anticipated to recover, with the return on equity (ROE) stabilizing, supported by significant increases in private equity and margin financing, alongside a notable rise in trading volume and valuation [1] Group 2 - Tang Ge expressed optimism about the electronic and new energy sectors, particularly in lithium batteries, power equipment, PCB, and semiconductor storage, which are expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology and changes in energy demand and policies [2] - The company aims to continue expanding investment opportunities in 2026, emphasizing the importance of in-depth industry and company research for selecting investment targets [2]

Core Insights - The investment logic in the controlled nuclear fusion industry is shifting from a "ultimate energy" narrative to an industry trend investment driven by engineering implementation [1] - The main driving forces are the expected explosion in demand and technological breakthroughs on the supply side [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The development of artificial intelligence and big data has highlighted the long-term power supply gap [1] - The application of high-temperature superconductors and AI technology in nuclear fusion is expected to reduce construction costs of fusion devices and accelerate iteration speed [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Market Opportunities - This shift is generating capital expenditures for the construction of experimental and demonstration reactors, leading to increased orders for upstream companies in the industry chain [1] - Upstream companies are expected to benefit continuously before fusion energy generation, suggesting a strategic investment opportunity in core suppliers of fusion devices and key segments with high value proportions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of the robotics sector in the A-share market, with significant investments flowing into robotics ETFs and notable orders for humanoid robots from both domestic and international companies [1][2][3] - The Robot ETF (159213) has seen a nearly 3% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a net subscription of 3 million shares during the trading session [1] - Tesla has signed a letter of intent with PharmAGRI to deploy up to 10,000 Optimus Gen3+ humanoid robots in various operational areas, indicating strong demand for humanoid robots in the market [1][3] Group 2 - The investment landscape for the robotics sector is characterized by two phases: thematic investment and industrial trend investment, with the current phase being identified as an early stage of industrial trend investment [2] - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the market's confidence in humanoid robots is growing, with expectations for rapid penetration rates already factored into current valuations [2] - Major players in the humanoid robotics market are transitioning from shallow commercialization to deeper market engagement, with challenges remaining in mass production and practical application [3][6] Group 3 - The articles mention significant orders in the humanoid robotics sector, including a 2.5 billion yuan contract for the Walker S2 humanoid robot, setting a new record for single orders in the global humanoid robotics industry [1][3] - The current landscape shows that while there are many companies involved in humanoid robotics, few have achieved a commercial closed loop, with most focusing on small-scale strategic collaborations and data collection [6] - The anticipated market for humanoid robots is expected to expand from government and educational applications to broader commercial markets, with the potential for significant growth in consumer applications [6][8]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to show strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3728.03 points as of August 18, marking the highest closing since August 20, 2015 [1] - The trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.81 trillion yuan, ranking as the third highest in history [1] - Huashang Fund's Balanced Growth Mixed Fund has demonstrated strong performance, with A and C class fund shares achieving net value growth rates of 98.25% and 97.09% respectively over the past year [1][3] Group 2 - Zhang Mingxin, the deputy director of equity investment at Huashang Fund, emphasizes a value-driven investment approach focused on industry trends [1][3] - The fund manager has a track record of focusing on risk growth investments in the early stages of industries and participating in core growth directions such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, AI, and autonomous driving [1][3] - The fund's performance over the past three years shows net value growth rates of 46.06% for A class and 43.46% for C class, significantly outperforming the benchmark return rates of -6.10% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the trade-offs between certainty, prosperity, and valuation in investment strategies, suggesting that investors must adopt a flexible approach to identify opportunities and manage risks effectively [3][4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The concept of "the impossible triangle" illustrates that no investment opportunity can possess certainty, prosperity, and valuation simultaneously, requiring investors to prioritize two while sacrificing one [4]. - Three basic investment styles emerge from this triangle: - Deep value investing focuses on certainty and valuation, sacrificing prosperity [4]. - Sector rotation focuses on prosperity and valuation, sacrificing certainty [4]. - Track allocation focuses on prosperity and certainty, sacrificing valuation [4]. - The article discusses the deep value investment method, which is suitable for non-professional investors but requires overcoming psychological challenges related to market fluctuations [6][10]. Group 2: Sector Allocation - The article argues that abandoning valuation can be an effective strategy, as market consensus on valuation is subjective and can change over time [9]. - During periods of high prosperity, such as from May 2020 to November 2021, the most successful investment strategies were those that did not focus on valuation [10]. - Investors should consider a "configuration strategy," allocating part of their portfolio to high-prosperity sectors while seeking high-certainty stocks, often leading to standard configurations among institutional investors [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Trend Investment - Industry trend investment capitalizes on high-growth sectors, which often experience rapid valuation changes, making it challenging to apply traditional valuation methods [15][16]. - The article highlights that early-stage industry trends can lead to significant stock price increases, as seen in the lithium battery sector [17]. - Investors must navigate the uncertainty of defining "early-stage" trends, as market conditions can shift rapidly, impacting stock performance [18][19]. Group 4: Forecasting and Response - Investors need to predict changes in both prosperity and market expectations, as high prosperity sectors can lead to rapid stock price declines when signs of downturns appear [25][26]. - The article stresses the importance of qualitative analysis alongside quantitative tracking of prosperity to avoid pitfalls in investment strategies [28]. - A successful investment approach requires understanding the nature of the risks involved and aligning strategies with personal investment styles [32][33].

Group 1 - Public funds have shown increasing enthusiasm for investing in high-quality assets through A-share private placements, with a total investment amount reaching 10.917 billion yuan as of June 24 [1][4] - Notable public fund participants include Nord Fund, which engaged in 39 placements with a total investment of 4.712 billion yuan, and Caitong Fund, which participated in 41 placements with a total investment of 3.876 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The attractiveness of private placement projects is highlighted by Haohua Technology, which attracted three public funds with a total investment of 1.628 billion yuan, and Guolian Minsheng, which drew four institutions with a total investment of 916 million yuan [4] - The trend in public fund private placements is shifting from "arbitrage" to "industry trend investment," with leading institutions actively investing in hard technology and resource restructuring [4] Group 3 - A total of 34 public fund private placement targets have achieved floating profits, with 14 of them having a floating profit rate exceeding 20%, and four targets exceeding 50% [5] - The non-ferrous metal industry is the most favored sector for public fund investments, with companies like Anning Co. and Zhongtung High-tech receiving a combined investment of 1.849 billion yuan [5] Group 4 - The recovery of the private placement market this year is attributed to supportive policies and improving market conditions, with public funds allowed to participate as strategic investors in private placements [5][6] - The private placement projects in key strategic areas such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy are becoming capital hubs for industrial upgrades, indicating their potential for valuation elasticity and performance realization [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market in May is expected to show a pattern of "weight index rebound and active technology growth" [2] - Economic data indicates concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on exports, but ample fiscal funds can counteract this, leading to a stable economic outlook [2] - The end of annual and quarterly report disclosures has resulted in a long-awaited upward inflection point in corporate profit growth [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, driven by both policy and performance [4] - Investors are advised to balance defensive and growth strategies, focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts while being cautious of external risks [4] Group 3 - The June Federal Reserve meeting is expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, with an emphasis on increasing uncertainty [5] - The analysis framework suggests that current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations have reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, with expectations of two or fewer cuts within the year [6] - The market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and unclear prospects for the U.S. stock market [6]