景气改善+低估值
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华泰证券:港股回调带来结构性机会,寻找景气改善+低估值板块
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 23:54
Group 1 - Recent market pullback is primarily due to the adjustment of internal and external expectations, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a 4.5% decline from its recent peak, compared to a 2.3% decline in the CSI 300 [2][3] - The rise in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index has pressured the relative performance of Hong Kong stocks, with the dollar index surpassing the critical 100 mark [2][3] - The political bureau meeting did not exceed market's optimistic expectations, particularly regarding the cautious stance on cyclical commodities and real estate policies, leading to a cooling in related sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the volatility, the mid-term allocation logic for the Hong Kong market remains unchanged, with a significant inflow of capital observed, including a net inflow of 59 billion HKD from southbound funds, the highest since April 11 [3][4] - The expectation of global liquidity remaining more inclined towards easing rather than tightening supports the Hong Kong market, despite recent dollar strength [3][4] - Recent events in the US, including unexpected job data and changes in Federal Reserve leadership, have raised questions about the credibility of US economic data and the independence of the Fed, impacting dollar stability [3][4] Group 3 - The current market's core contradiction lies in the rapid rotation of sectors, with high concentration and valuation levels in popular sectors, prompting a search for structural opportunities [4] - Strategic allocation should focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly emphasizing technology stocks [4] - Tactical trading opportunities are expected to center around earnings reports, with a focus on leading gaming and e-commerce stocks that show value and improving sentiment [4]