每当提到那些划时代的新技术时，大多数人脑海中，总会浮现出摧枯拉朽般的颠覆景象：蒸汽机一响，工业革命就迅速推倒农业文明；互联网 诞生，信息时代便席卷全球，颠覆传统生活方式。 但实际上，真正能扎根壮大、改变世界的颠覆性技术，鲜少是靠纯粹的"替代"一蹴而就，往往是在提升效率、降低成本的过程中，与传统模式 共生共长，最终悄然重塑格局。 今年中报期的谷歌与Meta就是最好的例证，在纯AI产品商业化有限的情况下，依旧双双大幅beat了市场预期，依靠的正是AI加持下， Advantage+、Reel、Pmax等广告业务突飞猛进。 聚焦到国内市场，当前的AI发展与应用主逻辑亦是如此——就在昨日，中国视频大模型领先者快手发布了2025年中报：营业收入录得350.46 亿，同比增长13.1%，经调整利润56.18亿，同比增长21.6%，营收利润双双大幅beat了预期。 并且在未来预期层面，快手也展现出对AI发展及整体业务发展相对乐观的信号，业绩会中CFO金秉透露，可灵AI 2025年全年收入预计比今年 初目标翻倍，这使快手坚定了在可灵AI上进行长期投入的决心，预计可灵AI相关的2025年Capex上的投入较年初预算也将翻倍。 快 ...

[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 自有品牌持续放量，多品牌矩阵打开长期空间 事件： [Table_Summary] 若羽臣发布 2025 年中报，2025H1 实现营收 13.19 亿元/+67.55%，归母 净利润 0.72 亿元/+85.60%，扣非归母净利润 0.70 亿元/+83.52%； 2025Q2 实现营收 7.45 亿元/+79.57%，归母净利润 0.45 亿元/+71.72%， 扣非归母净利润 0.45 亿元/+72.21%。 点评： 品牌管理延续高增态势，自有品牌展现强劲动能。2025H1 公司实现营 收 13.19 亿元/+67.55%。分产品看：1）品牌管理业务收入 3.35 亿 /+52.53%/占比 25.42%，公司依托多品类的消费者洞察与丰富的运营经 验，实现从品牌运营到品牌管理的战略跨越，业务维持快速增长。2） 代运营业务收入 3.80 亿/-2.79%/占比 28.83%。3）绽家收入 4.44 亿 /+157.11%/占比 33.63%；绽家持续深化香氛化心智，上半年上新 10 款 香型，并通过 IP 联名实现人群不 ...

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 21 日 证券研究报告 商贸零售 | 互联网电商 非金融|公司点评报告 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 08 | | | 月 | 20 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 59.43 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 高 / 最 低 | | | | 82.50/10.90 | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 12,995.57 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 9,409.18 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 218.67 | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 50.56 | | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | 3.74 | | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3771.10 points, up by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% to 11919.76 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% to 2595.47 points [1] Sector Performance Gaining Sectors - The oil and gas extraction and services sector led the gains with an increase of 2.36%, achieving a total trading volume of 1259.12 million hands and a turnover of 81.23 billion [2] - The internet e-commerce sector rose by 1.82%, with a trading volume of 789.03 million hands and a turnover of 87.40 billion [2] - The beauty care sector saw an increase of 1.40%, with a trading volume of 420.32 million hands and a turnover of 93.94 billion [2] Declining Sectors - The metal new materials sector experienced the largest decline at -2.23%, with a trading volume of 945.04 million hands and a turnover of 174.11 billion [2] - The electronic chemicals sector fell by 2.19%, with a trading volume of 1052.84 million hands and a turnover of 216.09 billion [2] - The electrical machinery sector decreased by 2.09%, with a trading volume of 846.48 million hands and a turnover of 203.08 billion [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.03% [1] - Pop Mart's stock rose over 1%, reaching a new historical high [1] - Pop Mart's founder Wang Ning stated that this year's LABUBU new products are relatively restrained, with significant existing demand and future value potential [1] Group 2 - Pop Mart will launch a mini version of LABUBU this week, which is expected to become a super hit [1] - Haidilao has opened its first innovative concept store in Beijing after two years of development, featuring significant innovations in functionality, visuals, and scenarios [1] - The innovative concept store includes a dessert station, interactive entertainment area, welcoming robots, a beverage bar, smart hot pot machines, and DJ interactions during late-night party hours [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce and new consumption stocks [1] - The ETF includes major players across various sectors of Hong Kong consumption, such as Pop Mart, Laoputang, Mixue Group, and Haidilao, as well as e-commerce giants like Xiaomi, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, highlighting its tech and consumption attributes [1]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on August 20, experiencing a "V" shaped movement, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.57%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.26%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.67% at midday [1] - Large technology stocks continued to drag down market sentiment, while new consumption concept stocks saw a rise, with Pop Mart increasing over 8% and its stock price surpassing 300 HKD, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion HKD [1] Investment Insights - According to Zhongtai Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, showing clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, with southbound funds enhancing their marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong market, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, which will attract more capital allocation to Hong Kong stocks [1] - In the medium to long term, the valuation advantages of the Hong Kong stock market and the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading remain promising, with the technology and consumption sectors likely to continue rising under the dual support of policies and funds [1] ETF Overview - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce and new consumption stocks [1] - The ETF includes major players across various consumption sectors, such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, highlighting its strong technology and consumption attributes [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.61%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.75% [1] - Xiaomi Group experienced a decline of over 2%, while Oriental Selection saw an increase of nearly 5% following a clarification statement and the initiation of legal processes [1] Future Market Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that the market is currently in a critical phase with a lack of clear trading themes and pending verification of significant domestic and international events, viewing this as a window for portfolio adjustments. They remain optimistic about future market trends [2] - China Galaxy recommends focusing on sectors with better-than-expected mid-term performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and major financial institutions, as well as sectors benefiting from favorable policies like AI and "anti-involution" industries [2] - CITIC Securities highlights that the upcoming half-year report period will be crucial for the continuation of the Hong Kong market's performance, with a shift from liquidity-driven to earnings-driven and policy-validated market dynamics expected [2] Long-term Market Sentiment - Industrial Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, believing that the bullish sentiment among global and Chinese investors is strengthening. They predict a long-term bullish trend for the market [3] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a catalyst for further liquidity stimulation in the Hong Kong market [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the successful advancement of the Alashan Phase II project for Boyuan Chemical [4][7] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5] - The core product prices and gross margins for soda ash declined, but the increase in production and sales volume helped mitigate the impact of price drops [5][6] Group 2 - The company has successfully acquired multiple electronic gas projects, enhancing its position in the electronic gas market [9][10] - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, while net profit decreased by 13.44% [9][10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 26.37%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, but operating cash flow increased significantly by 84.34% [10] Group 3 - 361 Degrees reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 860 million yuan, also up 8.6% [12][13] - The e-commerce segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.82 billion yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year [13][14] - The company opened 49 new stores, enhancing its retail presence and brand image [15] Group 4 - Tencent Holdings reported Q2 2025 revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit of 55.6 billion yuan, up 17% [17][18] - The gaming segment experienced a robust 22% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [18][19] - The marketing services business grew by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [19] Group 5 - The report indicates that the chromium salt industry is experiencing significant growth, with Zhihua Co. achieving H1 2025 revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [29][30] - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.81%, up 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management [29][30] - The effective release of production capacity contributed to a notable increase in sales volume, particularly in chromium oxide and alloy additives [32][33] Group 6 - Yonghe Co. reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.445 billion yuan, a 12.39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 271 million yuan, up 140.82% [35][36] - The refrigerant segment benefited from favorable supply-demand dynamics, leading to a 26.02% increase in revenue [37] - The company is actively pursuing the development of fourth-generation refrigerants and high-end fluorinated fine chemicals [39] Group 7 - The coal industry showed signs of improvement, with July 2025 coal production at 380 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [40][41] - The report notes that the overall coal production growth rate has slowed due to adverse weather conditions and regulatory checks [42] - The performance of major coal companies varied, with some showing production increases while others faced declines [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [1][13][25] Core Insights - JD's retail growth remains strong, with effective synergies between e-commerce and food delivery, leading to a significant increase in active users and shopping frequency [7][9][11] - The company's revenue for Q2 FY25 reached RMB 356.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding expectations [8][10] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 FY25 was RMB 7.4 billion, down 48.9% year-on-year, but still surpassing forecasts [8][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084.66 billion - 2024: RMB 1,158.82 billion - 2025E: RMB 1,328.95 billion - 2026E: RMB 1,425.11 billion - 2027E: RMB 1,522.26 billion - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the upcoming years are: - 2025E: RMB 26.96 billion - 2026E: RMB 47.73 billion - 2027E: RMB 60.53 billion [16][10][13] Operational Performance - JD's food delivery business has shown healthy growth, with daily orders exceeding 25 million across 1.5 million partner restaurants in 350 cities [11][12] - The company's operational efficiency improved, achieving a gross margin of 15.9% and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.7% in Q2 FY25 [10][12] - The retail operating margin for Q2 FY25 was 4.5%, while logistics operating margin decreased to 3.8% [10][12] Strategic Initiatives - JD has launched a RMB 10 billion subsidy program for food delivery, which has led to increased competition and short-term profitability pressure [10][12] - The company is focusing on quality food delivery and has introduced innovative models like the "Seven Fresh Kitchen" partnership, which quickly gained traction [12][13] Market Position - JD's core supply chain capabilities remain robust, supporting long-term growth in both retail and new business segments [13][10] - The report highlights the positive impact of national subsidy policies and an expanding active user base on the performance of power-consuming categories [13][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][20] Core Views - JD Group's Q2 2025 revenue reached 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][10] - The company's adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin in JD Retail, despite losses from new businesses like food delivery [6][10] - The retail segment showed strong growth, with revenue from the 1P electronics category increasing by 23% year-on-year to 179 billion yuan, and the 1P daily necessities category growing by 16% to 103.4 billion yuan [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 356.7 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ +18%), with a gross profit of 56.6 billion yuan (YoY +23%, QoQ +18%) [5][10] - Operating profit was -0.9 billion yuan (YoY -108%, QoQ -108%), and net profit was 6.7 billion yuan (YoY -51%, QoQ -41%) [5][10] - Non-GAAP net profit was 7.4 billion yuan (YoY -49%, QoQ -42%) [5][10] Retail Segment - JD Retail revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to 310.1 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an operating profit margin of 4.5% [6][9] - The growth was driven by a robust recovery in consumer spending and government subsidy policies [6][9] Logistics Segment - JD Logistics revenue reached 51.6 billion yuan (YoY +17%, QoQ +10%), with a slight decrease in operating profit margin to 3.8% [9] - The integrated supply chain customer revenue grew by 19.9% year-on-year, with over 70,000 external customers [9] New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, reached 13.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan [9] - The food delivery segment has shown significant user growth, with daily orders reaching 25 million [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,323.58 billion yuan, 1,420.01 billion yuan, and 1,512.77 billion yuan respectively [17][18] - The target market capitalization for JD Group in 2026 is set at 544.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 171 yuan per share [17][18]