Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Powell, highlighting the transition from the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) to the Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) framework, emphasizing the need for a more responsive approach to inflation management in the post-pandemic economy [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - In the 1970s, the U.S. faced high inflation rates, prompting then-Fed Chair Volcker to raise interest rates to 20%, which led to a significant GDP decline from 5.5% in 1978 to -1.8% in 1982 [1]. - Powell's tenure has seen unprecedented inflation levels, with initial misjudgments about the persistence of inflation following the pandemic [1][2]. Inflation Dynamics - The "transitory inflation" narrative was widely accepted, with expectations that supply issues would resolve and demand would shift from goods to services, thus lowering inflation [2]. - By mid-2021, this assumption weakened as inflation spread from goods to services, indicating that high inflation was not a temporary phenomenon [2][3]. Policy Adjustments - Recognizing the need for a strong policy response, Powell began tightening financial conditions in late 2021, culminating in aggressive interest rate hikes starting in March 2022 [3][4]. - The Fed's initial framework, designed for low inflation and interest rates, became inadequate in the face of rising inflation post-pandemic [4][5]. New Monetary Policy Framework - The transition to FIT from FAIT reflects a shift in focus, reinstating the 2% inflation target while allowing for proactive measures against inflation risks [6][7]. - Key modifications in the new framework include the removal of references to employment shortfalls, a regular five-year review process, and a broader risk assessment approach [6][8]. Legacy and Future Outlook - Powell's legacy may include a more adaptable monetary policy framework that emphasizes timely responses to inflation, with expectations of a future characterized by moderate inflation and higher neutral interest rates [7][9]. - The new framework aims to enhance the Fed's responsiveness to inflationary pressures, moving towards a model that prioritizes early action based on real-time data rather than waiting for traditional indicators [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve reported an operational loss of $77.6 billion for the year 2024, marking its second consecutive year of significant losses, primarily due to aggressive interest rate hikes from 2022 to 2023 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The Federal Reserve's operational loss for 2024 is $77.6 billion (approximately 56 billion RMB), following a loss of $114.5 billion in 2023 [1][3]. - The losses are attributed to the Fed's economic support during the pandemic and subsequent rate hikes that raised the benchmark interest rate from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% [3]. - As of the end of 2024, the Fed holds $6.8 trillion in securities with an average yield of 2.6%, while paying an interest rate of 4.4% on $3.4 trillion in reserves [3]. Impact on Monetary Policy - The Fed's ability to return to profitability depends on the trajectory of interest rate cuts; if short-term rates remain above 4%, losses are expected to continue [7]. - Market expectations suggest a potential interest rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points within the year [7]. - The Fed's operational losses do not hinder its monetary policy implementation, as profitability is not its primary goal [5][4]. Future Outlook - The New York Fed predicts that the Fed will approach breakeven as time progresses, contingent on interest rates falling below the average yield of its securities [7]. - Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, express optimism about potential rate cuts in the next 12 to 18 months if inflation progresses positively [7][8].

美联储意外"爆雷"。 当地时间3月21日，美联储发布经审计的财务报告显示，美联储2024年全年运营亏损达776亿美元（约合人民币 5600亿元），连续第二年出现巨额亏损。分析认为，美联储巨亏的主要原因是2022年至2023年的暴力加息。 美联储何时能恢复盈利，取决于其后续的降息路径。纽约联储的预测显示，如果短期利率维持在4%以上，美 联储今年将继续亏损；若利率持续下调，美联储则可能实现盈利。 根据CME数据，目前市场普遍认为，美联储未来一段时间内可能会继续降息，预期年内降息幅度为50—75个 基点。当地时间3月21日，美联储"鸽派"票委、美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee表示，如果能够在长期内继续在 通胀问题上取得进展，相信未来12—18个月利率将走低。 美联储最新公布 当地时间3月21日，美联储发布的2024年财务报表审计结果显示，美联储2024年运营亏损高达776亿美元（约合 人民币5600亿元），连续第二年出现大额亏损，2023年亏损额高达1145亿美元。 分析称，美联储遭遇巨额亏损的主要原因是其在2020年和2021年疫情期间大力支持经济，以及在2022年和2023 年为应对高通胀而大幅加息，将基准利 ...