"40多年前，堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园，我很自豪能延续这一传统。"当地时间 8月22日，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 面向未来，鲍威尔更新了外界期待已久的美联储货币政策框架，从"灵活平均通胀目标制"（FAIT）转 向"灵活通胀目标制"（FIT），在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上，鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔，留下自己的"遗产"，他的愿望能否实 现？ 误判 在2020年通胀率低于目标之后，2021年3月和4月大幅攀升。最初的通胀率激增集中在供应短缺的商品 上，如机动车辆，价格涨幅极大。鲍威尔和同事们最初判断，这些与疫情相关的因素不会持续，因此认 为通胀的突然上升可能会很快过去，不需要货币政策的干预。 "通胀暂时论"当时被广泛接受，大多数主流分析师和发达经济体的央行行长都持这一看法。普遍的预期 是，供应状况会较快改善，需求的迅速复苏将走到尽头，需求会从商品转向服务，从而降低通胀。一段 时间内，数据与暂时性通胀的假设一致。2021年4月至9月，核心通胀数据每月都在下降，尽管进展比预 期缓慢。 但到2021年年中，这一假设的支撑开始减弱。从2021 ...

记者丨吴斌 编辑丨李莹亮 "40多年前，堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园，我很自豪能延续这一传统。"当地时间 8月22日，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 20世纪70年代，美国通胀率曾一度高达13.3%。为遏制恶性通胀，时任美联储主席沃克尔将利率前所未 有地提高到了20%，最终遏制住了通胀，付出的代价是美国GDP增速从1978年的5.5%降至了1982年 的-1.8%。 两个时代各有特点，鲍威尔的表现可圈可点，一方面，虽然疫情暴发后美联储抗通胀的动作稍慢，鲍威 尔后知后觉，但没有出现方向性错误，其任期内数十年未见的高通胀基本被"暴力加息"浇灭，长期通胀 预期并未失控。 面向未来，鲍威尔更新了外界期待已久的美联储货币政策框架，从"灵活平均通胀目标制"（FAIT）转 向"灵活通胀目标制"（FIT），在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上，鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔，留下自己的"遗产"，他的愿望能否实 现？ 误判 在疫情暴发后，鲍威尔一度判断失误，美国通胀率意外飙升至数十年未见的高位。 在2020年通胀率低于目标之后，2021年3月和4月大幅攀升。最初的通胀率 ...

"40多年前，堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园，我很自豪能延续这一传统。" 当地时间8月22日，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 20世纪70年代，美国通胀率曾一度高达13.3%。为遏制恶性通胀，时任美联储主席沃克尔将利 率前所未有地提高到了20%，最终遏制住了通胀，付出的代价是美国GDP增速从1978年的 5.5%降至了1982年的-1.8%。 两个时代各有特点，鲍威尔的表现可圈可点，一方面，虽然疫情暴发后美联储抗通胀的动作稍 慢，鲍威尔后知后觉，但没有出现方向性错误，其任期内数十年未见的高通胀基本被"暴力加 息"浇灭，长期通胀预期并未失控。 面 向 未 来 ， 鲍 威 尔 更 新 了 外 界 期 待 已 久 的 美 联 储 货 币 政 策 框 架 ， 从 " 灵 活 平 均 通 胀 目 标 制"（FAIT）转向"灵活通胀目标制"（FIT），在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上，鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔，留下自己的"遗产"，他的愿望 能否实现？ 误判 在疫情暴发后，鲍威尔一度判断失误，美国通胀率意外飙升至数十年未见的高位。 在2020年通胀率低于目标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Powell's leadership, particularly the shift from the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) to the "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) framework, reflecting the changing economic conditions and the need for a more responsive policy approach [1][7][11] Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Evolution - In the 1970s, the U.S. faced high inflation, prompting then-Fed Chair Volcker to raise interest rates to 20%, which led to a significant GDP decline [1] - Powell's initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic was slow, as he underestimated the persistence of inflation, which surged unexpectedly [2][3] - The Fed's initial belief in "transitory inflation" was widely accepted, but by mid-2021, it became clear that inflation was not temporary, leading to a tightening of monetary policy starting in November 2021 [2][6] Group 2: New Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's new framework, FIT, emphasizes a 2% inflation target while allowing for more flexibility in response to economic conditions, moving away from the previous FAIT approach [5][7] - Key modifications in the new framework include the removal of references to "employment shortfalls," allowing for preemptive actions against rising inflation risks [7][8] - The FIT framework aims for a more generalized policy response, acknowledging the complexities of the current economic environment, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [8][10] Group 3: Legacy and Future Implications - Powell's legacy includes the formal transition to FIT, modernizing the Fed's toolkit, and institutionalizing regular reviews of monetary policy [9][10] - The new framework is expected to lead to a world characterized by moderate inflation, higher neutral interest rates, and frequent supply shocks, with a stricter adherence to the 2% inflation target [10][11] - The Fed's approach is shifting towards a more proactive stance, utilizing real-time data to inform decisions rather than waiting for lagging indicators [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50%, indicating limited room for future rate cuts due to the current economic conditions and political pressures [1][6]. Economic Summary - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate slowdown, with a second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3.0%. However, private sector momentum has significantly weakened, with private sector annualized growth dropping to 1.2%, the lowest in 2023 [4]. - Key economic challenges include a decline in construction investment (-10.3%) and residential investment (-4.6%), both sensitive to interest rates. High long-term rates are increasing costs for home purchases and real estate investments, leading to a sluggish housing market [4]. - Consumer spending growth in the second quarter was only 1.4%, which, while an improvement from the first quarter (0.5%), remains below the long-term trend of 2-3% [4]. Policy Summary - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate level, which is described as "moderately restrictive," suggesting limited future rate cuts. Chairman Powell has not provided clear guidance on when cuts might occur [6]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed will not be responsible for national fiscal issues and will focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [6][7]. Strategy Summary - Given the increasing demand for dollars and the ongoing "funding shortage," the strategy suggests buying long-term U.S. Treasuries when the 5-year yield is in the 4.05%-4.15% range and the 10-year yield is in the 4.5%-4.6% range [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a neutral and cautious stance towards the dollar, correcting previous overly bearish sentiments [8].

埃里安说："若在企业界，他早已因政策失误被解雇。" 安联集团首席经济顾问埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）周二公开呼吁，美联储主席鲍威尔应主动辞职，以 确保央行独立性。埃里安成为首位公开提出此类主张的知名经济学家，其表态迅速引发市场关注。 埃里安在社交平台X的早间发文中表示："如果鲍威尔主席的目标是维护美联储的操作自主权（我认为 这至关重要），那么他就应该辞职。" 这位太平洋投资管理公司前CEO兼剑桥大学女王学院院长指出，鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束，且继 任者年底前就会公布，使其本质上已成为"跛脚鸭"，当前政治环境已让美联储独立性岌岌可危。 他承认这一观点与华尔街主流共识相悖——后者普遍希望鲍威尔继续任职至2026年5月任期结束。 埃里安同时指出，鲍威尔辞职并非"最优解"，但比起当前美联储独立性面临"日益扩大且多元化的威 胁"的局面，主动请辞或许是次优选择。 他列举了鲍威尔任内三大争议，包括2022年误判"通胀暂时论"延误加息时机、2023年银行业危机招致严 厉审查报告、以及引发美联储官员股票交易禁令的内部交易丑闻（鲍威尔未涉指控）。 埃里安援引财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）的批评称， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with increased internal dissent among officials regarding future rate decisions[2] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation predictions were raised by 30 basis points to 3.0% for PCE and 3.1% for core PCE[2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Chairman Powell revised the "transitory inflation" narrative, acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects and rising inflation expectations[2] - The unemployment rate forecast was increased by 10 basis points to 4.5%, indicating concerns about economic conditions[2] - Private final consumption remains strong at a growth rate of 2.5%, reflecting confidence in employment and economic growth[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. stock markets initially fell but later stabilized, while bond yields rose before slightly retreating[2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July decreased from 14.5% to 10.3%, while the likelihood of a cut in September increased from 54.8% to 60.1%[2] - Risks include potential inflation increases due to tariff negotiations and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[2]

海外经济：美国仍具韧性 最新"硬数据"指向美国经济仍然保持相当韧性。 一是经济增长保持稳健。 Q1 GDP环比负增全部来自于进口增加，剔除库存、政府购买及进出口后的国内私人 部门年化增速仍然高达3.0%。从结构看，私人设备投资（22.5%）表现最为亮眼，且全部来自数据设备的贡 献，可能反映了"星际之门"项目的影响。 二是就业市场保持稳健。 4月美国新增非农就业人数17.7万，显著超出市场预期的13.8万，失业率稳定在 4.2%。 高频数据指向关税对美国经济的冲击开始发酵，但距离衰退仍有距离。亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测Q2美 国私人消费年化增速为1.9%，剔除库存后的私人投资年化增速大幅降至1.3%；首次申领失业金人数陡升至24.1 万，就业市场边际有所转冷。 前瞻地看， Q2美国经济可能大概率为温和转冷，市场衰退预期最终或"折半兑现"。美联储大概率于5月议息会 议按兵不动，并继续释放"通胀暂时论"与"衰退夸大论"信号。随着经济进一步转冷，美联储或于年中执行"鹰 派降息"，在进一步降低利率水平的基础上控制市场对未来降息的预期，并重申对通胀的高度关注态度。 海外策略：风险偏好回暖，离岸人民币升值 五一期间， ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%[1] - The unemployment rate for 2025 is projected to increase from 4.3% to 4.4%[1] - PCE inflation for 2025 has been adjusted upward from 2.5% to 2.7%, while core PCE inflation is raised from 2.5% to 2.8%[1] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed will slow down the balance sheet reduction starting April 1, reducing the cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the pace for agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion[3] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) usage has significantly decreased to below $20 billion, indicating a need to slow down the balance sheet reduction[3] Market Reactions - The market responded positively to the Fed's meeting, with a significant drop in the 1-year SOFR OIS indicating a dovish expectation[8] - Powell's dismissal of recession risks and inflation concerns has boosted risk appetite across various asset classes, reminiscent of the "transitory" inflation narrative from 2021[8] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, surging oil prices, and possible interventions by the Trump administration in Fed policies[9]

鲍威尔引爆最佳"美联储决议日"。 当地时间周三，在美联储下调今年经济预期，上调通胀预期后，随后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔对经济风险表示"漠视"， 再次抛出 "通胀暂时论" ， 透露 出"坚定"维持现状的立场。 分析认为，其对美国经济风险"漫不经心"的态度对市场情绪产生了重大影响，他似乎在 "特意安抚金融市场" 。 在鲍威尔这种微妙的姿态的推动下，隔夜美国市场罕见股债齐升。 标普500指数、纳指大涨超1%， 标普创下自去年7月以来"美联储决议日"最佳表现 ，2年期美债收益率一度跳水超10个基点，10年期美债收益率跌超4个基 点，刷新日低。 现货金价连续两天盘中创历史新高，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间逼近3052美元。 一句话概括， 除了美元，几乎所有资产类别都录得上涨。 值得注意的是， 鲍威尔的"通胀暂时论"让人联想起美联储对疫情驱动的通胀飙升反应迟缓的记忆。这种策略能否奏效，无疑是当下市场关注的焦点。 鲍威尔在2021年坚持认为通胀只是"暂时性"的，结果证明这是一个代价高昂的误判。当时的通胀不仅没有短暂消退，反而飙升至40年来的最高水平，迫使 美联储在后期不得不大幅加息以控制物价。 而区别是， 这一次鲍威尔更多强调不确定 ...