曲线编制方案调整

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天风证券:增值税调整 债市趋势性行情尚未形成 关注兼具流动性和相对价值的品种
智通财经网· 2025-08-12 00:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is experiencing a period of volatility without a clear trend, necessitating a focus on structural opportunities within the market [2][5] - On August 8, 2025, the implementation of VAT adjustments coincided with the issuance of nine new local government bonds, with overall results exceeding expectations [3][4] - The tax burden impact on self-operated and asset management institutions is estimated to be around 10 basis points (BP) and 5 BP respectively, with the theoretical yield spread between new and old bonds calculated at approximately 10 BP [3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the actual yield spread between new and old bonds was lower than the theoretical estimate, ranging from 4 to 7 BP, indicating a pricing adjustment reflecting a 3% VAT [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and relative value in bond selection, suggesting a focus on long-term bonds with greater volatility and capital gain potential [5] - The adjustment in the curve compilation scheme implies that new bond valuations will carry more weight, potentially affecting institutions with high holdings of inactive old bonds [4]