Xml [Table_Page] 固定收益|周度报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 周策略图谱 债市抢跑两会行情？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [分析师： Table_Author]杜渐 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260526020003 | | 010-59136690 | | dujian@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 吴棋滢 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | SFC CE No. BQN213 | | 021-38003588 | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杜渐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/31 972918116公共联系人2026-03-01 18:30:00 [Table_Contacts] ⚫ 合意区间约束与技术形态指向震荡格局依然是当前市场的主要背景。 央行近期两次提及利率区间，或暗示合意区间大致在 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show strength, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields generally declining, indicating a positive sentiment ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.14% at 112.73, the 10-year contract up 0.06% at 108.49, the 5-year contract up 0.08% at 106.025, and the 2-year contract up 0.04% at 102.484 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.795%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开20" fell by 2.25 basis points to 1.94% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5.54 basis points to 3.498% and the 10-year yield rising by 2.99 basis points to 4.206% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese government bond yields also saw significant increases, with the 5-year and 10-year yields rising by 4.9 basis points and 5.4 basis points, respectively [3]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4406% for 1.0356-year, 1.5793% for 3-year, and 1.9286% for 10-year bonds, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.08, 2.89, and 4.42 respectively [4]. - The 10-year "26陕西债04" bond had a yield of 1.92% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 34.64, indicating strong demand [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 1130 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 380 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.27% and the 7-day rate up 7.0 basis points to 1.505% [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the bond market is warming up due to reduced profitability in equities and commodities, alongside expectations of total easing, suggesting a potential recovery in the bond market [7]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that while the bond market may perform steadily before the holiday, the post-holiday trend will depend on fundamental factors and policy signals [7]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income emphasized that under stable funding conditions, leveraging strategies and short-duration credit bond strategies remain effective [7].

Market Overview - The bond market showed signs of warming up with a general decline in interbank bond yields, particularly for government bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, where the 10-year government bond yield approached 1.81% [1] - The net injection in the open market was 14 billion yuan, leading to a decline in short-term funding rates across the board [1] Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.07% to 112.09, the 10-year main contract up by 0.05% to 108.21, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.87 [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.50% to 531.58 points, with notable increases in several convertible bonds, including N Lianrui and Jinjiji bonds, which rose by 30.00% and 13.82% respectively [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.64 basis points to 3.596% and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.79 basis points to 4.243% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 0.1 basis points to 3.435% and German bonds up by 0.8 basis points to 2.873% [3] Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 2-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5501% and 1.6044%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.34 and 4.54 [4] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's local bonds showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 15 times for both the 20-year and 30-year bonds [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 377.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates declined across the board, with the overnight rate down by 0.5 basis points to 1.366% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that long-term government bonds are primarily priced by funds, which have significant holdings and trading volumes, while rural commercial banks have weaker pricing power [6] - Huaxi Fixed Income pointed out that the current interest rate decline is driven by a supply-demand mismatch, with banks increasing their allocations in the secondary market [7] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank indicated that while this week is a data vacuum period, supply pressure from government bonds will gradually emerge, and the market is sensitive to negative news [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness with all government bond futures closing down, while the interbank bond yield exhibited mixed trends, indicating a cautious outlook ahead of the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.07% at 112.17, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.15, the 5-year main contract down 0.04% at 105.835, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% at 102.408 [2]. - The interbank bond yield showed slight divergence, with the 30-year government bond yield down 0.45 basis points (bps) to 2.2565%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.05 bps to 1.834% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 5.16 bps to 4.241% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese government bond yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield down 2.3 bps to 2.266% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds up 1.7 bps to 3.541% [3]. Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.4226% for the 1.2521-year and 1.7028% for the 5.5041-year, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.63 and 6.74 respectively [4]. - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.6683% for the 3-year and 1.8772% for the 7-year, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.85 and 3.83 respectively [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 2102 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 309 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 9.1 bps to 1.413% [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities suggests maintaining a configuration of medium to short-term credit bonds, with a focus on leveraging opportunities in the ultra-long end and government bonds [6]. - CITIC Securities notes that the central bank's balance sheet has expanded steadily, indicating a potential for government bond trading to influence yields [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income emphasizes that current inflation is not indicative of a broad price increase, suggesting that monetary policy may remain stable or undergo minor adjustments [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term bond market may face downward pressure. Small - position active participation in band trading after adjustments, emphasizing reverse operations. Consider the market's concerns about factors such as the supply pressure of ultra - long - term government bonds in Q1, the impulse of credit issuance at the beginning of the year, and the continuous rise of equity and commodity prices. Long - term bonds may continue to be under pressure. The strategy is mainly based on short - duration carry strategies, and small - position participation in band trading after adjustments [3][15]. - Next week, the capital market will face phased pressure, but the pressure during the tax period is expected to be controllable. It is necessary to pay attention to the central bank's capital injection during the tax period [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, under the combined effects of equity market adjustment, policy game, and capital market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. The yields of 10Y and 30Y government bonds changed by - 4bp and + 0.1bp respectively. The capital price first rose and then fell due to the reserve payment day and the delayed release of outright repos [10][11]. - Next week, the capital market will face phased pressure. The net withdrawal of the open - market will increase to 1.1015 trillion yuan, and the government bond issuance scale will increase to 706.6 billion yuan. However, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year and the structural interest rate cut, the capital pressure is expected to be controllable [2][14]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding: Central Bank Net Injection, Funding Rates First Up Then Down - This week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 81.28 billion yuan. From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank injected 951.5 billion yuan and had 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repos mature. The capital price first rose and then fell. R001 and DR001 rose by 3bp and 5bp respectively compared with January 9th [19][20]. 3.2.2 Secondary Trend: Oscillating Downward, Increased Volatility - This week, yields oscillated downward with increased volatility. Except for 3M and 30Y, the yields of other key - term government bonds declined. Except for 5Y - 3Y and 50Y - 30Y, the term spreads of other key - term government bonds widened. As of January 16th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y government bonds changed by - 4bp and + 0.1bp respectively compared with January 9th [27]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment: Widening of 30Y - 10Y Government Bond Spread, Recovery of Bond Fund Duration - From January 12th to January 16th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y government bonds dropped to 37%. As of January 16th, the 50Y - 30Y government bond spread narrowed by 1.9bp compared with January 9th, and the 30Y - 10Y government bond spread widened by 3.7bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio slightly decreased to 108.1%, and the exchange leverage ratio decreased to 123.2%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds recovered, and the divergence decreased [33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply: Increase in Government Bond Issuance Scale Next Week - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased and turned negative, with a net financing of - 174.4 billion yuan. The net financing of government bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 475 billion yuan, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 231.6 billion yuan [49][52][53]. 3.3 Economic Data: Improvement in Real Estate Transactions, Weak Performance in Automobile Consumption - In December, imports and exports ended at a high level. The growth rate of social financing slightly declined, and household credit remained weak. Since January, real estate transactions have improved, and automobile consumption has been weak. High - frequency data shows that new - home transactions have turned positive month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. Thirteen - city second - hand housing transactions have increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. Automobile consumption has turned negative both month - on - month and year - on - year [58][59]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market: Cooling of Core Inflation in the US in December - In December, the core inflation in the US cooled down. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was further dampened. Overseas bond markets showed that US bonds declined, and emerging markets mostly declined. This week, the 2Y US bond yield rose 5bp to 3.59%, and the 10Y US bond yield rose 6bp to 4.24%. The 10Y - 2Y US bond spread widened from 64bp on January 9th to 65bp [68][69]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes: Strength in Shanghai Gold and Crude Oil, Adjustment in Shanghai Copper - The CSI 300 index slightly adjusted this week. As of January 16th, 2026, it closed at 4731.9 points, down 0.57% from January 9th. This week, Shanghai gold, the Nanhua Pig Index, and the Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose, while Shanghai copper weakened. The performance of major asset classes was: Shanghai gold > Pig > CSI 1000 > Crude oil > Rebar > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Convertible bonds > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper [75]. 3.6 Next Week's Bond Market Calendar - The calendar includes information on liquidity injection and maturity, government bond supply, fundamental data, and important domestic and international events from January 19th to January 25th, 2026 [80].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with government bond futures mostly rising and interbank bond yields slightly declining, indicating a potential high point in the yield curve [1][2][6] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.30% at 111.2, the 10-year main contract up 0.06% at 107.845, and the 5-year main contract up 0.05% at 105.625 [2] - The interbank bond yields mostly decreased slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield down 0.3 basis points to 2.3%, and the 10-year yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.968% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields mostly rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.60 basis points to 3.532% and the 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points to 4.167% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields continued to rise, with the 5-year and 10-year yields increasing by 2.5 basis points and 2 basis points, respectively [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased slightly [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had bidding yields of 1.4982% for 1.0356-year, 1.6494% for 3-year, and 2.0047% for 10-year, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.06, 3.82, and 3.65 respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 861 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 361 billion yuan for the day [5] - Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Views - Huatai Securities noted that the market is experiencing a "New Year rally" due to increased capital inflow and high sentiment, but cautioned that rapid local market movements may require regulatory observation [6] - Zhongyou Securities emphasized that the steep yield curve presents a certain opportunity, suggesting that long-term yields lack the basis for significant upward trends [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The state of the fundamental and capital markets determines the underlying tone of the bond market. The focus of the game remains the intensification of "loose monetary policy" and its specific implementation forms. In January 2026, the situation is neutral to optimistic. The primary issuance pressure of government bonds is controllable. The regulatory scale for non-banks is marginally relaxed, which is beneficial for the stability of the liabilities of public bond funds. The capital market may face potential seasonal pressure, but there is a high probability of additional central bank injections. The allocation demand at the beginning of the year can lock in the upper limit of interest rates. The coupons and spreads of the medium and long - term ends of interest - rate bonds are highly cost - effective, and the bond market may start a bullish trend [2][29][61]. Summary by Directory 1. December Bond Market: A Glimmer of Warmth Amidst the Cold - In December, the long - end interest rate showed an "up - down - up" N - shaped trend. The 10 - year Treasury yield reached a high of 1.87% at the beginning of the month and a second - high of 1.86% at the end of the month, and dropped to 1.83% in the middle of the month. The bond market mainly traded on four themes: the central government's policy orientation for the following year, the possibility of short - term intensification of the central bank's "loose monetary policy", the supply ratio of ultra - long government bonds, and the year - end ranking competition among institutions [1][13]. - Compared with October - November, in December, the capital interest rate was more stable and lower, and the bond market sentiment became more positive, shifting from completely ignoring the possibility of "loose monetary policy" to attempting to play the game [17]. - Regarding various bond market varieties, the issuance price of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased at the beginning of the month and decreased in the second half of the month. The interest - rate bond curve steepened significantly, with the yield of 30 - year Treasury bonds rising by 8bp. The credit bond market's development slowed down marginally, and only some over - adjusted varieties in November had a rebound [23][24]. 2. Learning from History: Fundamental and Capital Markets as Key References for the Bond Market in Early January - In the past five years, the movement of long - end interest rates in January has been inconsistent. When the economic fundamentals were good at the beginning of the year and the capital market gradually tightened, bond yields increased, as seen in 2021, 2023, and 2025. When the fundamental data was below expectations and the monetary policy was proactive, it was beneficial for the bond market, as in 2022 and 2024 [27]. - Looking forward to January 2026, in addition to the fundamental and capital market conditions, non - seasonal pricing factors also need to be considered, including the supply rhythm of government bonds, regulatory changes in bond fund redemption fees, policy directions, and institutional behaviors [29]. 3. Four Key Concerns for the Bond Market in January Supply Rhythm - The net supply pressure of government bonds in January is about 1.3 trillion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 4.00 - 4.12 trillion yuan, with a "V" - shaped monthly distribution [3][36]. - The sentiment towards ultra - long - term bonds may be cautious in the first half of January and may recover in the second half as bond issuance progresses. The specific term structure of government bond supply in the first quarter still needs observation [37]. Regulatory Changes - The constraints on bond fund redemption fees have been relaxed. The new regulations may have three regulatory intentions: stabilizing market pricing, weakening the liquidity management attribute of bond funds, and emphasizing fairness to investors. The issue of customized bond funds may continue to be the focus of rectification [4][41]. - After the new regulations were officially announced, the concerns of investors eased. In early January 2026, the bond market may achieve a good start, with interest - rate pricing potentially self - repairing and the possibility of an inflow of institutional incremental funds [41]. Policy Direction - In January, the capital market faces more disturbances than in December, including large - scale tax payments, Spring Festival cash - withdrawal demand, a credit boom, and proactive fiscal policies. The capital interest rate has an inherent upward momentum, and the inter - bank market's dependence on central bank injections will increase [6][42]. - There are two options for the central bank's monetary policy: "strong action" (possibly a reserve requirement ratio cut if the Q4 economic performance is significantly below expectations) and "weak action" (increasing the net injection of basic tools if the December data rebounds and the recovery continues into January) [48][49]. Institutional Behavior - Allocation - driven investors may be the key force in determining interest - rate pricing at the beginning of 2026. Banks and insurance companies' self - operated investments are evaluated annually, and the beginning of the year is an important allocation period. At present, the trading - driven investors' influence on the interest - rate center has weakened and they tend to follow the allocation - driven investors [7][51]. - For insurance companies, a 30 - year Treasury yield of 2.30% may be an important allocation point. For large banks, a 1.85% coupon rate on 7 - 10 - year Treasury bonds is acceptable when the spread is cost - effective [52][57]. 4. January Strategy: Seize the Opportunity - In general, the situation in January is neutral to optimistic. However, at the beginning of 2026, the bond market adjusted sharply. The direct reason may be the learning effect from the 2025 bond market adjustment, and the fundamental reason is the lack of significant profit - making effects in the bond market [61][62]. - The bond market is gradually entering a state where inter - bank market funds are relatively abundant and the duration of trading - type institutional portfolios is low. The coupons and spreads of the medium and long - term ends of interest - rate bonds are highly cost - effective. It is advisable to wait for allocation - driven investors to enter the market first, followed by trading - driven investors. In January, it may be a good time to seize opportunities. Short - term significantly adjusted varieties such as 5 - 10 - year Treasury bonds and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds have trading value. When the 10 - year Treasury yield is above 1.85%, it may be a relatively safe replenishment window. For ultra - long - term bonds, it is advisable to wait until the end of the month when the supply term structure is clear [69][70].

Core Insights - The issuance of local government bonds in China has officially started for 2026, with Shandong Province being the first to issue 72.381 billion yuan [1] - The People's Bank of China has net injected 50 billion yuan through government bond transactions in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of such operations [3] - The China Securities Association has announced stricter penalties for violations related to bond trading record keeping, highlighting issues with internal controls and compliance among institutions [5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 40 billion yuan of 182-day discount treasury bonds [6] - Guangdong Province emphasizes the effective use of various financial tools, including special bonds, to enhance investment [8] - Henan Port Investment Industry Park Management Group has received approval to issue 501 million yuan in asset-backed securities [10] - Zhengzhou Public Transport Group has been approved to issue 500 million yuan in corporate bonds [15] - The establishment of Guangzhou Metro Real Estate Development Group with a registered capital of 5 billion yuan has been reported [23] - Dragon Lake Group has successfully repaid a syndicate loan of 9.227 billion Hong Kong dollars (approximately 8.5 billion yuan) ahead of schedule [23] - A market director from a rating agency has been sentenced to four years in prison for accepting bribes related to credit rating assessments [24] Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has conducted a net injection of 819 million yuan through 7-day reverse repos and 100 million yuan through central treasury cash management in December 2025 [3] Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Association is increasing penalties for institutions failing to maintain proper bond trading records, which has been a widespread issue [5] Issuance Trends - The Ministry of Finance is set to issue 40 billion yuan in discount treasury bonds, indicating ongoing government efforts to manage fiscal policy [6] - Henan Port Investment Industry Park Management Group is planning to issue 501 million yuan in asset-backed securities, reflecting active capital market participation [10] - Zhengzhou Public Transport Group is moving forward with a 500 million yuan corporate bond issuance, showcasing ongoing financing activities in the public transport sector [15] Regional Developments - Guangdong Province is focusing on utilizing special bonds and other financial instruments to drive investment and economic growth [8] Corporate Actions - The establishment of Guangzhou Metro Real Estate Development Group with a significant registered capital indicates growth in the real estate sector [23] - Dragon Lake Group's early repayment of a substantial loan demonstrates effective debt management and financial stability [23] Market Sentiment - Analysts predict that the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated [26] - Recommendations for bond trading strategies include focusing on short-term interest rate arbitrage and long-term positioning during market fluctuations [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The probability of going long in the bond market is high, and the bond market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations. The bond market trend has often deviated from the fundamentals since the second half of 2025, being mainly influenced by institutional behavior. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in Q1. The new rules for public fund sales fees have been implemented, and bond fund institutional investors are exempt from punitive redemption fees for one - month holding, while retail investors are exempt for 7 - day holding. This has little impact on bond funds, and the scale of bond funds is expected to stabilize or even increase slightly. Currently, the trading positions in ultra - long bonds have significantly decreased, so the bond market may rebound in January [2][4][94][96] - The new regulations on public fund sales fees implemented on January 1, 2026, have relaxed the redemption system for bond funds compared to the draft for comments. As of H1 2025, institutional investors accounted for 82.76% of bond - type funds. The official regulations may ease the redemption pressure and liquidity concerns of institutions such as bank self - operations and wealth management. The ability of individual investors to negotiate redemption fees after 7 - day holding may increase the attractiveness of short - term bond funds. In the future, bank wealth management may be more inclined to allocate bond ETFs, inter - bank certificate of deposit funds, and money market funds [2][14][94] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro News - During the 3 - day New Year's Day holiday in 2026, there were 142 million domestic tourist trips, with a total domestic tourism consumption of 84.789 billion yuan. Compared with the New Year's Day holiday in 2024, the number of tourist trips, total spending, and per - capita spending increased by 5.19%, 6.35%, and 1.10% respectively [2][14][94] - The "Regulations on the Administration of Sales Fees for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" came into effect on January 1, 2026. Compared with the draft for comments, it has relaxed the redemption system for bond funds. As of H1 2025, institutional investors accounted for 82.76% of bond - type funds, and the new regulations may ease institutional redemption pressure and increase the attractiveness of short - term bond funds [2][14][94] - The manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond the seasonal level, returning above the boom - bust line for the first time since April 2025, and the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range after a one - month hiatus. In December, the manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1%, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating an overall expansion of business production and operation activities [22] - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", emphasizing "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure" in fiscal policy and "promoting economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices" in monetary policy. The report also pointed out that medium - and long - term funds such as public funds, insurance funds, and various pension funds are the cornerstones of the healthy and stable development of the capital market, and future institutional policies may be improved to increase their investment in A - shares [28] 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of December 28, the daily average retail sales volume of passenger car manufacturers was 90,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 119,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% [29] - As of January 2, the total box - office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 1.162742 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2% [29] - As of December 19, the total retail sales volume of three major household appliances was 776,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.7%, and the total retail sales amount was 1.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 49.7% [32] 3.2.2 Transportation - As of January 3, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 564.8, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% [33] - As of December 28, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed in the week was 1.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [33] - As of January 2, the average daily passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 3.8972 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [33] - As of December 28, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.05 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, the delivery volume was 4.07 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%, the railway freight volume was 7.3561 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.5164 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [41] 3.2.3 Industry - As of January 2, the weekly iron ore inventory was 16.7218 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, the rebar inventory was 282,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the float glass enterprise inventory was 5.6866 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.7% [44] - As of January 2, the weekly apparent consumption of steel was 841,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, the apparent consumption of rebar was 200,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, and the apparent consumption of wire rods was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [49] - As of December 31, the national blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 74.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4 percentage points. As of December 25, the average operating rate of asphalt was 21.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0 percentage points, the soda ash operating rate was 81.5%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points, and the PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 percentage points [53] 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of January 3, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 3.032 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.8% [57] - As of December 26, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities was 153,600 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9% [60] - As of December 28, the transaction land area of 100 large and medium - sized cities was 24.951 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 42.4%, and the total transaction land price was 64.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 53.3% [62] 3.2.5 Price - As of January 4, the average wholesale price of vegetables in the week was 5.7 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a 3.2% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% and an 8.0% increase compared to 4 weeks ago [67] - As of December 31, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports in the week was 691.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a 15.5% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [67] - As of January 2, the average spot price of WTI crude oil in the week was 57.7 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2% and a 2.2% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [67] - As of December 31, the average spot price of rebar in the week was 3230.1 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% and a 0.7% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 815.1 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% and a 0.5% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 12.8 yuan/square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 21.5% and a 6.5% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [73] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On January 4, the overnight Shibor was 1.26%, unchanged from December 26. On December 31, R001 was 1.46%, up 10.09BP from December 25; R007 was 2.16%, up 63.14BP from December 25. DR001 was 1.33%, up 7.36BP from December 25; DR007 was 1.98%, up 49.79BP from December 25. IBO001 was 1.39%, up 7.38BP from December 25; IBO007 was 1.93%, up 50.92BP from December 25 [80] - On December 31, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bonds were 1.34%/1.63%/1.85%/2.27% respectively, unchanged, up 3.2BP, up 1.1BP, and up 4.5BP respectively compared to December 24. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.55%/1.81%/2.00%/2.42% respectively, down 1.3BP, up 1.4BP, up 2.7BP, and up 3.1BP respectively compared to December 24 [84] - On December 31, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.49%/1.76%/2.06% respectively, down 0.8BP, down 0.1BP, and up 1.6BP respectively compared to December 24. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year, AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.53%/1.63%/1.55%/1.66% respectively, down 10.4BP, down 1.3BP, down 10.4BP, and down 1.3BP respectively compared to December 24 [86] - As of January 2, 2026, the yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.19%, 2.07%, 4.54%, and 2.96% respectively, up 7BP, 1BP, 5BP, and 2BP respectively compared to December 29 [91] - On December 31, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.03/6.99 respectively, down 183/271 pips compared to December 24 [92] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The bond market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in Q1. The new rules for public fund sales fees have little impact on bond funds, and the scale of bond funds is expected to stabilize or increase slightly. Currently, the trading positions in ultra - long bonds have significantly decreased, so the bond market may rebound in January [4][96]

Key Points - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association announced the addition of 24 institutions qualified for underwriting non-financial corporate debt financing instruments, including 8 general lead underwriters and 15 underwriters [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, aiming to meet the demand for the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 3.125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan into the market [3] - The Henan Provincial Finance Department announced adjustments to the use of funds for 16 special bonds, with a total investment of 11.968 billion yuan [4] - The Tianjin Municipal Committee emphasized the need to accelerate the transformation and exit of financing platforms to effectively mitigate economic risks [5] - The Shandong Provincial Government has introduced measures to support state-owned enterprises in establishing industrial investment funds, encouraging investment in strategic emerging industries [5] - The Shandong Provincial Government Investment Management Measures prohibit local governments from illegally borrowing debt to fund government investment projects [6] - Four companies in Henan have been approved to register a total of 4.241 billion yuan in debt financing instruments [7] - Zhengzhou Urban Construction Group issued 500 million yuan in medium-term notes with a 5-year term and interest rates of 2.49% and 2.39% [9] - The Xinyang Shentou Operation Management Company plans to issue 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with Guosen Securities as the underwriter [11] - The Henan Cultural Tourism Investment Group signed a controlling acquisition agreement with Yimei International Travel Agency to strengthen their position in the inbound tourism market [12] - The Jiyuan Investment Group announced a non-compensatory transfer of 54.51 million shares of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd., valued at 626 million yuan [14] - The China Securities Association released the results of the bond business quality evaluation, with 14 companies receiving an A rating [14] - The market outlook for 2026 indicates new characteristics in the bond market, including potential downward pressure on interest rates and a possible "dual bull" market scenario for stocks and bonds [20][21]