Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is experiencing a period of volatility without a clear trend, necessitating a focus on structural opportunities within the market [2][5] - On August 8, 2025, the implementation of VAT adjustments coincided with the issuance of nine new local government bonds, with overall results exceeding expectations [3][4] - The tax burden impact on self-operated and asset management institutions is estimated to be around 10 basis points (BP) and 5 BP respectively, with the theoretical yield spread between new and old bonds calculated at approximately 10 BP [3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the actual yield spread between new and old bonds was lower than the theoretical estimate, ranging from 4 to 7 BP, indicating a pricing adjustment reflecting a 3% VAT [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and relative value in bond selection, suggesting a focus on long-term bonds with greater volatility and capital gain potential [5] - The adjustment in the curve compilation scheme implies that new bond valuations will carry more weight, potentially affecting institutions with high holdings of inactive old bonds [4]

增值税调整，债券策略再思考 20250811 新代码的地方政府债券发行活跃度如何？市场机构对其兴趣如何？ 新代码的地方政府债券在发行活跃度方面表现出色。根据测算，新代码债券的 收益率比旧代码债券平均高出 5 个基点，定价约为 3%的增值税。这一定价水 平反映了市场机构对新代码债券的额外溢价回报要求。尽管资管机构征收 3% 的增值税，自营机构征收 6%，但新代码债券主要由自营盘主导，因此其定价 在 0%到 6%之间，最终博弈结果为 3%。这表明自营类机构并未完全将税负转 嫁给发行人，而是达成了双方利益的平衡。 对于市场兴趣而言，自营类机构对 新代码地方政府债券表现出较高兴趣，因为这些债券在税前考核下具有投资吸 引力。尽管增值税可能影响利润，但只要新代码债券回报率高于旧代码，投资 者仍然乐于接受。此外，如果未来有更多通道型产品参与二级市场交易，新代 码债券的定价增值税影响可能进一步降低至 2%-3%。 新旧地方政府债券在流动性和利差方面有何变化？ 新旧地方政府债券在流动性和利差方面均表现出显著变化。由于新旧两种编码 的活跃度都较高，新老码之间的利差将进一步收窄。这意味着之前因流动性差 异导致的新老码利差将有所减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The outcome of the Sino-US talks was in line with expectations, and the Politburo meeting mainly focused on advancing existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market shifted towards recovery. On Friday, the VAT policies for treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds were adjusted, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7%. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1-year active treasury bond dropped by 1.75BP to 1.3600%, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75BP to 1.6950%, and the yield of the 30-year treasury bond declined by 4.45BP to 1.9030% [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents (1) Interest Rate Bond Market Review: Limited Increment from the Politburo Meeting, "Old Bond Rush" Driven by VAT Adjustment - **Overall Situation**: In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The Sino-US talks had no unexpected results, and the Politburo meeting mainly advanced existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market recovered. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced on Friday, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7% [3][6][7]. - **Daily Performance**: - **July 28th**: The central bank net injected 3251 billion yuan. The bond market continued the recovery trend, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 - 2.5BP [7][10][11]. - **July 29th**: The central bank net injected 2344 billion yuan. Affected by the Sino-US talks and Politburo meeting expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the yields of medium - and long - term treasury bonds over 5 years increased by 3 - 4BP [7][12]. - **July 30th**: The central bank net injected 1585 billion yuan. The Politburo meeting did not mention "anti - involution" and real estate policies much. The equity market rebounded, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP [7][13]. - **July 31st**: The central bank net withdrew 478 billion yuan in the morning. Due to factors such as the PMI data being lower than expected and the weakening of the equity market, the bond market performed strongly, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP [7][14]. - **August 1st**: The central bank net withdrew 6633 billion yuan in the morning. The equity market continued to correct. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced in the evening, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 1.6950% [7][15][16]. (2) Funding Situation: The Central Bank Conducted Net OMO Injections Near the Month - End, and the Funding Situation was Balanced and Loose The central bank net injected 69 billion yuan this week. The funding sentiment index was generally below 50. The cross - month funding situation was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1-year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit dropped to 1.6250%, and the weekly average of DR007 was 1.53% [1][7]. (3) Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Increased, while Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Decreased No specific data on the increase and decrease of net financing are provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the net financing of local government bonds decreased [24]. (4) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and China Development Bank Bonds Both Narrowed - **Yield Curve Changes**: The yields of short - term treasury bonds dropped by 1.01BP, and the yields of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2.52BP. The yields of long - term treasury bonds declined by 2.65BP, and the yields of long - term China Development Bank bonds fell by 4.64BP [19]. - **Absolute Level of Term Spreads**: The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 1.64BP to 33.25BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 2.12BP to 26.45BP [19].