1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The curve steepening strategy continues to be dominant due to the loose funding situation and high risk appetite [5]. - The anti - involution process will continue, and the main line of anti - involution supply - side reform remains clear despite asset differentiation [7]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is relatively high, and the market will trade the interest rate cut before the actual cut, with the recession logic likely to be shelved after the cut [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Logic and Strategy - The funding situation is expected to remain loosely balanced, with a low probability of interest rate cuts and excessive liquidity injection by the central bank in the third quarter. The interest rate term structure may show a long - term steepening characteristic [7]. - The macro data shows that the real estate sector is under pressure, and fiscal efforts are the core force to hedge against the cyclical decline of real estate. The anti - involution process is expected to continue, and the policy tolerance is relatively large [7]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakening, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high. The market will trade the interest rate cut before the actual cut, increasing risk appetite and weakening the US dollar [7]. - The bond market has seen a significant decline, with long - term bonds falling more than short - term bonds, and the curve is continuously steepening. The strategy is to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curve structure [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes - The yield of Chinese bonds has rebounded by 3bp, and the yield of US bonds has increased by 5bp. The global equity market has continued to strengthen, and the commodity market has shown volatile and differentiated trends, with crude oil significantly weakening [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review - Domestic data: In July, the foreign trade data slightly exceeded expectations. Exports to ASEAN maintained high growth, and the growth rate of exports to South Korea rebounded. The CPI was at a low level, and the PPI remained unchanged. The PMI data was lower than expected, and the economy showed a marginal decline [20]. - Overseas data: The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating a weakening of the US service industry. The US labor market has shown a secondary weakening, and if inflation does not continue to decline, the US economy may face stagflation [20]. 3.4 Funding Situation Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Indicator Monitoring - The central bank's OMO operations had a stable withdrawal, and funds smoothly passed through the tax period. DR001 rose to around 1.4% due to tax payment factors. In July, the net injection of the 3 - month repurchase operation was 300 billion yuan, and the 6 - month operation was a flat - volume hedge, with a total net injection of 300 billion yuan [7][33]. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report added the statement of "preventing idle funds" and deleted the statement of "resuming treasury bond trading operations opportunistically". The central bank is less likely to cut interest rates and inject excessive liquidity in the third quarter, and the probability of maintaining a loose funding situation is high [7][33]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures and Spot Indicator Monitoring - Not provided in the content 3.6 Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy - Not provided in the content 3.7 Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy - Not provided in the content