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两种穿越周期的投资方法论
雪球· 2025-04-24 07:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, contrasting the volatility in the U.S. stock market with the relatively stable A-share market, suggesting that investors should adopt long-term strategies like "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" to navigate market uncertainties [4][5]. Group 1: Timed Dollar-Cost Averaging - The concept of "timed dollar-cost averaging" is a localized adaptation of Benjamin Graham's "dollar-cost averaging," focusing on investing in quality assets with long-term appreciation potential [7][9]. - Quality assets are defined by their long-term value growth expectations and clear valuation benchmarks, with examples including high-dividend stocks and reasonably priced growth stocks [9][10]. - The banking sector in the A-share market is highlighted as a suitable investment direction due to its long-term intrinsic value and stable valuation benchmarks [10][13]. Group 2: Diversified Asset Allocation - Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy" emphasizes the importance of asset allocation based on macroeconomic indicators, categorizing economic conditions into four states and recommending asset classes that perform well in each [16][20]. - The strategy involves creating sub-portfolios for each economic state and then combining them into a larger portfolio, ensuring equal risk contribution from each sub-portfolio [20][21]. - In the A-share market, high-dividend stocks can be seen as having bond-like characteristics, while cyclical stocks are linked to commodity prices, allowing investors to find suitable targets across different economic phases [21][22]. Group 3: Conclusion - Both "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" emphasize the importance of long-term asset preservation and growth, while minimizing short-term speculative trading [31][32]. - The article advocates for simple, clear, and effective investment strategies that can help ordinary investors navigate the complexities of market cycles [32][33].
两种穿越周期的投资方法论
雪球· 2025-04-24 07:53
以下文章来源于楚团长聊聊天 ,作者楚团长 楚团长聊聊天 . 春来不是赚钱天,夏日炎炎正好眠。秋来蚊虫冬又冷,揣好钱包待明年。 长按即可参与 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 楚团长扯投资 来源:雪球 说来也是好笑 , 特朗普2021年创立Truth Social ( 真实社交 ) 平台的初衷 , 是因为其他主流平台承受 不住他的 " 胡言乱语 " , 选择对其账号进行封禁 。 但当站在关税阴云波澜诡谲的当下 , 本该贡献 " 真 相 " 的Truth Social平台 , 反而在特朗普的高强度观点输出下 , 批量制造了大量真伪难辨 、 朝令夕改的 矛盾内容 …… 如何应对特朗普对 " 真实Truth " 一词的重新解构 ? 至少美股尚未找到答案 , 否则美股各大权重指数也不 会在最近两周 , 创出动辄±10%的宽幅波动 。 反观A股 , 由于宏观政策路径相对清晰 , 同时中央汇金等 " 类平准基金 " 平滑市场波动的意愿较为强烈 , 所以A股投资者最近两周并未遭遇惊涛骇浪式的高波动冲击 , 反而可以在流动性充裕的背景下 , 寻找一 些可能的交易性机会 ...