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有色金属日报-20251024
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 10:22
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, same as aluminum [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a long - bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, long - bias with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic events, supply - demand changes, and inventory levels. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw a significant increase in positions and an expanded upward trend in Shanghai copper. Gold and silver prices corrected during the week, attracting funds to allocate copper based on the high gold - copper ratio. The market is concerned about Sino - US business negotiations and the confirmed summit between the two leaders at the end of the month. High copper prices are suppressing demand, and there is a risk of testing previous highs. It is recommended to trade at low prices and wait and see for now [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum followed the non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. The overseas aluminum plant's 200,000 - ton production cut due to an accident and the slight destocking in both domestic and overseas markets are factors. Short - term upward breakthroughs need demand feedback, and the upside space is viewed cautiously. Casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to oscillate strongly. Alumina has a high operating capacity and rising inventory, showing a weak operation [2] Zinc - Overseas currency credit pressure leads to a strong long - bias in funds for non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The zinc export window is open, and the fourth - quarter support for Shanghai zinc is strong. The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, which is beneficial for long - term contract negotiations. Attention should be paid to overseas production data, and the domestic refining industry's profitability may lead to normal exports [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillates at a low level. The downstream demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the market is light. The support from the upstream price rebound is weakening, and the overall nickel industry chain price may be dragged down. Technically, Shanghai nickel is weak and expected to oscillate [6] Tin - Shanghai tin increases in positions and rises. Technically, London tin breaks through the MA20 moving average, and the short - term upward trend will continue. Low imports of tin concentrates in China in September and limited复产 of Myanmar mines support the price. Wait for the social inventory data this week [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price rebounds, and the market trading warms up. The overall inventory decreases, and the downstream seizes the opportunity to buy after the price cut. Technically, it is strong in the short term, and the pressure around 80,000 yuan should be watched [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decline slightly. There is a high probability of production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan in November due to rising electricity prices. The inventory accumulation situation is expected to be alleviated, and the spot price is under pressure while the futures are expected to oscillate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures decline slightly after changing the main contract. The spot price of N - type re -投料 is stable. The production cuts in October were less than expected, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in November - December. The market oscillates driven by policy expectations [10]