有色稳增长

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有色:反内卷延伸到基本金属,乐观情绪驱动有色回升
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 11:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal, such as "oscillating" for copper, "wait - and - see or short - term trading" for alumina, "oscillating in the short - term and potentially shorting on highs in the long - term" for aluminum, etc. [7][9][13] 2. Report's Core View The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is optimistic due to the spread of the "anti - involution" concept. Although the US tariff game continues and the macro - economic situation is complex, policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, there are structural investment opportunities, and in the long - term, there are opportunities to short on highs for some metals with excess supply. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The upcoming non - ferrous metals growth - stabilization plan will support copper prices. The new plan will lead to the orderly exit of backward copper production capacity. Supply constraints remain, and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally, and US copper tariffs are unfavorable. Copper is expected to oscillate. [7][8][9] - **Alumina**: With scarce warehouse receipts and high "anti - involution" sentiment, alumina hit the daily limit. In the short - term, it has a strong foundation, but attention should be paid to the recovery rate and volume of warehouse receipts and new supply disruptions. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, there are concerns about consumption, with a tendency to short on highs. [12][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by macro - sentiment and cost, the market is oscillating strongly. In the short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at low levels, and there is room for an upward correction later, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage. [15] - **Zinc**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, zinc prices are short - term strong. However, in the long - term, supply is increasing while demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. [16] - **Lead**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, lead prices are oscillating upward. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, prices are expected to oscillate. [17][18][19] - **Nickel**: Due to non - ferrous metals supply - side reform, nickel prices are oscillating widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. [20][22][23] - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity sector, the stainless - steel market is rising. In the short - term, it may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes. [24][25] - **Tin**: With a further decline in LME inventory, tin prices have strong bottom support. Although there is a basis for price increases, the upward momentum is not strong, and prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August. [25][26] 3.2行情监测 The report lists various metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin under this section, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. [28][42][55]