有色金属市场氛围
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有色金属日报-20251030
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding strategy views. It points out that due to factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the tight supply of some metal raw materials, along with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, most metal prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, market sentiment was optimistic. LME copper hit a record high. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.55% to $11,090/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 89,130 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 775 to 135,350 tons, and the domestic spot market had different performance in different regions [2]. - **Strategy View**: With the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut as expected, the copper price is expected to continue to run in a volatile and strong manner. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 88,000 - 89,600 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $11,000 - 11,200/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2,870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,315 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different trends, and the market trading was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories, combined with improved global trade situation and Fed's interest rate cut, are expected to drive aluminum prices to run in a volatile and strong manner. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,150 - 21,450 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2,840 - 2,900/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17,365 yuan/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,200 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories and various price differences had specific values, and domestic social inventory decreased to 2.53 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: With the de - stocking of lead ore visible inventory and the improvement of demand, combined with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.55% to 22,440 yuan/ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME zinc had a high structural risk [11]. - **Strategy View**: With the slight increase in zinc ore visible inventory and the decline in smelter profits, combined with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 29, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. Supply was tight due to slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some fields was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the traditional peak season [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement of seasonal demand, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic main contract is 270,000 - 292,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is $35,500 - 37,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The cost of nickel ore was stable and slightly increased, and the price of nickel iron was weak [16]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices, but in the long term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider building long positions when the price drops enough. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 0.24%, and the LC2601 contract closed at 82,900 yuan, up 1.54% [20]. - **Strategy View**: After continuous rise, the over - expected lithium battery demand has been reflected in the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The operating range of the LC2601 contract is 81,200 - 84,100 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 2.16% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The inventory and prices of raw materials and products had specific values [23]. - **Strategy View**: Although the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus and there is a continuous inventory build - up trend, considering the improvement of Sino - US relations and Fed's monetary policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,805 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices in different markets were stable, and raw material prices were mostly stable with a slight decline in high - carbon ferrochrome. Social inventory increased to 102.74 tons, with a 1.33% decrease [26]. - **Strategy View**: Downstream demand is weak, but macro - level factors improve market sentiment. However, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the main AD2512 contract rose 0.56% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the strong cost support, along with the tight supply due to policy adjustments, strengthen the price support [30].